ISRAEL’S REVENGE: Explosions Reported In Iraq, Syria, And In Iranian Cities With Nuclear Facilities

It also showed Iran Israel knows where their strategic bases are located.

 

Israel then has an excellent opportunity handed to them on a plate by Iran to embarrass it: they can hold a military press conference or briefing and not only publicly take credit, but provide the camera evidence for it.
I have family in Isfahan. I also know Iran's modus vivendi when they want to put the lid on something, cutting off internet so eyewitnesses can't refute the official line. That isn't what is going on at all...

 

Sorry, but Iran's defeat is at the strategic level.
The unspoken story of why Israel didn’t clobber Iran
One rule for containing a crisis is to keep your mouth shut. But I’ll tell you what appears to have happened between Israel and Iran.
Opinion by David Ignatius

". . . . When the Israeli response came early Friday, it was muted. Iranian and Israeli reports suggest that the Israeli air force attacked a site near some of Iran’s largest nuclear facilities. Those facilities weren’t damaged, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. But Israel sent the message that it can penetrate Iranian air defenses and hit strategic targets when it chooses.

Israel wanted the last word in this exchange, and it seems to have succeeded. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday, after talks with officials in Tehran, that “Iran does not want an escalation.” Iranian public statements scoffed at the limited action, but Israel showed it can strike when it wants — in this case a jab, but next time, maybe not. In this sense, Israel maintained what strategists call “escalation dominance.” It landed the first blow and the last one.

How to explain Israel’s actions over the past week? What accounts for its restraint, in a situation where hawks in the Israeli government were screaming for all-out assault?

Here’s my take: Israel is behaving like the leader of a regional coalition against Iran. In its measured response, it appeared to be weighing the interests of its allies in this coalition — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan — which all provided quiet help in last weekend’s shoot-down. It’s playing the long game, in other words.

This would amount to a paradigm shift for Israel. Rather than seeing itself as the embattled Jewish state fighting alone for its survival against a phalanx of Arab and Muslim enemies, Israel knows that it has allies. Top of the list, as always, is the United States. But America is joined by Arab states that oppose Iran and its proxies as much as the Israelis do.

That’s the new shape of the Middle East. But for now, at least, this ripening friendship between Israel and its former adversaries in the region must remain unspoken. . . . "

 

Russian stuff is second best.

World·The Telegraph
Israel’s attack on Iran ‘took out’ Russian-made air defence system

 

No, the participation of the anti-Iran axis in defending Israel has put all of them in trouble.

Jordan is the weak link in the anti-Iran axis and is viewed as an integral piece in completing the encirclement of Israel in the so-called "ring of fire" strategy. It is also the platform that gives direct access to the West Bank.

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-...ability-us-washington-hamas-gaza-palestinians
Caught between Israel and Iran, Jordan clings desperately to stability

 

The claim in the story is that the strike took out a radar associated with the S300, not what the headline claims. Read the story. And then ask yourself if a missile can take out a radar without any visible damage to anything, not even the trucks carrying the system?

 

The Jordanians, along with the other Sunnis, have made their choice; they're with the Israelis and against the Iranians.

 

". . . Satellite imagery showed a “flip radar” component of the S-300 air defence battery either damaged or destroyed on Friday, according to analysts and the New York Times. . . ."

 

Yes. But the damage (even if true) could not be from a missile or any large explosive device. Even if true, it fits some small toy-like drone hitting the radar.

 

Sorry, but that's an opinion without foundation in observation.

 

There is no visible damage to anything else based on the same report in the NYT, including to the S-300 missiles (which are mounted on trucks like the one pictured below). The satellite imagery shows the missile right next to the radar before the strike and undamaged afterwards. A "missile" would make an impact that would at least damage the truck and the S300.

 

So what? The rest are worthless without the radar unit as they can't target or track anything. Israel sent a very clear message that they can hit Iran without Iran knowing anything until after it is all over.

That the target selected was guarding Iran's largest and most importantly nuclear facility really sends a message.

 

Nope. You are misled by the difference in missile and precision targeting technology between the US/Israel on the one hand and Russia/Iran on the other. There has been considerable research and investment in small precision warheads to produce exactly the result you describe. The objective is to minimize collateral damage.

 

Suicide drones

 

Those radar components, even if damaged by a sabotage operation, can easily be repaired. Besides, the top of the line defense for Iran's facilities come from Iran's locally produced Bavar 373 system.
https://www.army-technology.com/projects/bavar-373-surface-to-air-missile-system-iran/
Bavar-373 Surface-to-Air-Missile System, Iran
Bavar-373 is Iran’s long-range air defence system to neutralise aerial threats such as aircraft, drones and ballistic missiles.

 

As previously posted, the point was to demonstrate that the Israelis can go where they wish and hit what they want with impunity.

 

Funny. Nice catch. The pilots get a lethal dose when they lose their drone.

 

Iran needed to strike back at Israel to appease it's own people. It needed to restrain from doing too much damage to keep the USA from attacking it.

 

You just stuffed a whole lot of unproven assertions in one small post.

1) Since when does Iran give a F what its people want?

2) Since when does its people want their country to go to war against Israel? They that butthurt over their genocidal terrorist general being wiped out?

3) How stupid are the Iranian people for wanting to go to war with Israel?

4) Why would Iran sucking ass at hitting Israel including killing nobody and not starting the war they want somehow appease their bloodthirsty and warmongering populace?

 

How so?

 

It is like during Desert Storm when everyone was applauding the 100% success rate of Patriot interceptions of Saddam's (unguided) Scuds, with the then official figures saying 41 of 42 Scuds fired at Israel were intercepted. Technically, that would still be more like 98% than 100%. As it turned out, and much later admitted, only 0 to 4 of the Scuds had been intercepted!

Iran fired a bunch of decoys, duds, and older systems for various reasons, including to confuse US/Israeli air defenses. The actual number of drones and missiles trying to hit targets in Israel were around 50-60 (30-40 MRBMs and a small number of jet powdered drones and long range cruise missiles). It is admitted at least 9 got through. Overall between 25-30% of Iran's MRBMs hit their targets. The targets weren't ones to cause casualties, especially with advance notice of what is being targeted. They were critical Israeli radar installations, runways on airbases, a parked unused C-130 transport plane, etc. But they were mostly hit with extreme precision from 1,500 km away! A remarkable feat.

But even if you take the official figures and throw everything into one pot, getting to 300 projectiles of all kinds fired, 9 of 300 getting through would still not translate to 99% rate of interception.

 

All leaders, even dictators need to keep their people and especially their top generals subdued. If they don't, that's how coups happen.

They clearly don't. Their half assed retaliation follows by their statement that they consider it over shows that.

It's probably a factor, the bigger factor being Israel striking their embassy. Gaza may also be a factor.

How stupid are the Israeli people for wanting to go to war with Iran and how stupid are they for wanting to alienate themselves and become a pariah state?
.

You just stuffed a whole lot of unproven assertions into this question.

 

So you’re splitting hairs over 98 vs 99%?

 

At least 9 of 55 MRBMs hit their targets based on the latest US/Israeli figures (which are still inaccurate). That translates to an interception rate around 80% not 99%. By my analysis, the actual interception rate was 70%, which is not impressive given the advance notice and the mix of older MRBMs in a package with only around a dozen more modern Kheibar Shekan missiles used.

But if you work for the propaganda department and don't want to appear challenged in basic math, then say 97%. That would be totally misleading but at least it wouldn't look like you failed 5th grade math.

 

Sorry but generalizations can’t carve a path to persuasion, no matter how much more long winded you make them