My 2012 Electoral Map Projection -- Vote on it!

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I took a lot of things into account:

Electoral Map History from past elections

The 2008 and 2010 Elections for Governors, Senators, House

Current Unemployment rate for each state and their current economic state

Obama won the 2008 by winning the "Big Ten" of the country. And in every state that was close, Obama seemingly won all of those big, close match ups against MccCain. That won't be the case this time around.

The election is 21 months away but I feel I can get a pretty good read on this thing mainly because I don't see the current economy improving. I don't see it getting drastically worse; I just see not much change happening from now until November 2012.

All Obama had to do was cut spending and he would be well on his way to an easy re-election. But that's not why Obama ran for the presidency. He has vision for America, he's in the early stages of implementing it, but the majority don't feel it's the right way to go for this country.

21 months away without knowing the GOP candidate is a bold move on my part. It's easy for those experts to predict a few weeks before the election.

Obama won't win for this big reason:

So many independent voters will go vote with this mindset: they will think how grocery prices are high, gas prices are overwhelming them, their probably just getting by, bad economy. And they will think who is the man who hasn't improved the economy since becoming president -- Obama. It's very hard to win re-election during a bad economy, high prices, etc.

 

One of your arguments for this is that the economy won't get better in the meantime, but it's almost impossible for that to happen. Even conservative experts agree that it's going to improve before Obama's first term ends. Similarly, there isn't a truly strong GOP candidate at this time to challenge the Democrats.

The best hope in the GOP is Paul Ryan from Wisconsin, but he has already said he doesn't want to run until his children are over, meaning not until 2016 at least. As much as it pains me to say it, I just can't imagine your projection coming out.

 

with the ME problems on going I believe the jobs picture may stall and the GOP may have a chance to win but not by a huge margin

 

Obama gonna take it in 2012...

GOP reality check: Obama looking tougher to beat in 2012
2/28/11 : Just four months after posting historic election gains, Republicans are experiencing a reality check about 2012: President Barack Obama is going to be a lot tougher to defeat than he looked late last year.

 

i don't think 0 will be able to carry MI again.

 

1) The Republicans would have to have a candidate first. Last election at this time there were like 9. So far...0.

2) You should take a look at what states are "purple", then see if they are union states. I guarantee your map would look considerably different.

 

I think the republican candidate will make a huge difference, but rumblings at the moment are that a lot of Republicans don't want to risk going up against Obama and are saving themselves for a potentially much easier race in 2016.

While delusions of riding a unicorn of hope along a rainbow of change have been deflated by, well, reality, the minorities that voted for Obama haven't left and the unions, pro-choice groups, and LGBTA communities are probably paniced about what's going on in the house of reps.

I could see some tea partiers or regular Republicans picking up some more seats in 2012 though. But nobody has come forward yet that could topple Obama.

Though I think a lot might also depend on what Obama does in the coming months. If he reaches across the isle he might gain strong support from the independents, and since I think it's very unlikely another Democrat would try and unseat him in a primary battle he doesn't really have to appeal to those in the far left so much.

 

New Hampshire will be a Red State again in 2012.

 

Does your projection take into account those states that will by 2012 have constitutional requirements for candidates to present proof of eligibility?

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41858252/ns/politics-more_politics/


States question Obama citizenship with legislation

At least 11 states have measures that want more proof that president was born in the U.S.

 

It might depend on who the GOP puts forward as a candidate, but I otherwise concur. The auto company bailout didn't necessarily endear Obama & Co. to most Michiganders. He might win southeast Michigan, but that's not necessarily enough to carry the state.

 

Wisconsin voting for a Republican?

That is SO not going to happen.

"Gee, see what happens when we vote Republican? Our state explodes."

 

My guess is Obama wins the states he won in 2008 minus IN & NC and thus gets reelected.

 

Impossible to call at this point still way too early.

 

In the last 75 years, only two elected presidential incumbents have lost their re-election bid. Those two losers also had Reagan and Clinton as their political opponents.

There isn't a Reagan or Clinton-level politician in the GOP right now. Both Reagan and Clinton were geniuses of stage craft and being able to connect to the voter across party lines.

Let's also not forget that there's going to be MORE minority voters in this election than in 2008, and conservatives have made concerted efforts to (*)(*)(*)(*) minority voters off throughout Obama's first term.

 

I agree with the projections for two reasons. 1. I have a feeling that Obama will continue making blunders and more truth may be proven about his fraudulant history. 2. I believe the R nomination will come out of the second tier, and that person will be more effective than anyone thinks.

 

1. The majority of Americans don't think he has a fraudulent history. That's why he won the first time around.

2.Again, you're going to need a Reagan or Clinton level politician to beat a sitting president. There is no one in GOP who is like that.

 

Gas prices high, unemployment # high, deficit high.
Another REP<==>DEM.

 

Well, Sarah Palin and Herman Cain can do it. The Repubs ran women, minority candidates and won as they will in 2012. There is no reason to believe that most minorities make Common Cause with the Dems and their abortion socialism agenda and voters are leaving them in droves as they did on 11/02/10.

 

I think the Dems blew themselves out with running away from the Legislature and the drum circles.

 

I don't really believe it matters anymore who's in the White House, but for those of you that do, just remember that a candidate really only needs to win a couple of swing states to get the presidency. Ohio and Florida seem to hold the keys to the White House.

Obama's approval rating in both of those states is not that great. A recent Florida poll had his approval rating at 43%, with only 1/3 of independent voters approving of his job performance. A recent poll in Ohio had him at 47%.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/29/news/la-pn-obama-swing-states-20110429

 

Obama's base to me seems more confident than the president himself.
Obama is attempting to discredit all the major candidates for a reason (he is very vulnerable).
I mean he tried to make a fool of Trump and gave Romney a hug of death by praising "Romneycare".

 

It will depend on who the Rep candidate is. But after the shellacking the Dems took last year, a solid Conservative Rep candidate could do to Obama what Reagan did to Carter.

 

Trump isn't running, if he did, I would owe somebody $50.

"Romneycare"'s just the left getting back at the right for "Obamacare".

 

You state that as a fact... let me borrow your crystal ball please.
Also it is not the "left" upset on "Romneycare", the "right" is upset on it...
Which is why Obama is giving (or attempting to give Romney the hug of death by embracing his plan)
President Obama clearly to me is trying to get Romney out of the race like he tried to do with Trump.
Who knows why other then the fact that he is knowledgeable about how vulnerable he is.