2018 HOR Midterms, all 435 races, part I

As of, Thursday, August 31, 2017, there were 1,449 declared candidates for the HOR. As of today, Wednesday September 6th, 2017, there are now 1,461 declared candidates:



When this thread was started on August 7th, almost exactly one month ago, there were 1,332 declared candidates. That number has grown by 129 names in just 30 days and represents a growth rate of +9.68%. And this has all happened before the traditional Labor Day kick-off for the primary season of the next year!

There were changes in: CA-33, CO-01, CO-02, HI-01, IN-04, MA-03, NV-03, NY-23, PA-15, TN-01, WA-05, WA-06, WV-01

HI-01 is now an open seat because incumbent Hanabusa (D) just decided to run for Governor. Right now, the seat is unopposed: only a Republican is declared. This is likely to change very soon. Hanabusu just declared for the governorship in the last days.

A Democrat just declared for WV-01. That's a real longshot, less based on party affiliation or ideological make-up of the CD, but rather, more based on the fact that WV-01 tends to keep it's representatives in office for a long time. Since 1957, a span of 60 years, WV-01 has only had 4 representatives (1957-1969, 1969-1983, 1983-2011, 2011- ), and from 1969-2011, it was even the same family name: Mollohan, Bob and then his son, Alan. The current representative from WV-01, David McKinley (R), just barely flipped the seat from D to R during the Republican wave of 2010, by about +0.8% margin, but last year, he easily won re-election with almost 70% of the CD vote. That speaks alot about the power of the incumbency (regardless of party), about the massive ideological shift in this state (which was Trump's 2nd largest win of 2016), but it also says something about Democratic Party energy when a challenger for this kind of "tilt at windmills" race has already entered the fray. I don't see this seat as being even remotely competitive in 2018 - McKinley is very likely to be re-elected, but he will indeed have a challenger.

Source (see: the data for September 5th and September 1st)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

As of Wednesday September 6th, 2017, there were 1,461 declared candidates for the US-HOR. As of today, Wednesday, September 13th, 2017, there are now 1,492 declared candidates.




When this thread was started on August 7th, about 5 weeks ago, there were 1,332 declared candidates. That number has grown by 160 names since then and represents a growth rate of +12.01%.

There were changes in: CA-05, CA-08, CO-03, FL-05, GA-11, IL-06, IL-16, IN-05, IN-06 (new GOP candidate filed with the FEC for IN-06, however, he lists IN-05 on his website...), IA-04, MD-06, MA-03, MI-11 (retirement, now an open-seat), MN-04, NJ-07, NY-23, OH-01, PA-05, PA-08, PA-13, PA-15 (retirement, now an open seat), TN-02, TX-06, TX-16, TX-32 (now 12 D challengers to R-inc Pete Sessions), VT-AL, WI-08

Source (see blog postings from 9/13, 9/12, 9/11, 9/8 and 9/7)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

Not wanting to add any burden to the awesome work that you are doing with these stats but I was wondering as what is the percentage of unchallenged seats out of 435? My rough count just scanning your comments in the spreadsheet shows 140 but that a very quick eye scan. If that holds true then the average for the contested seats comes to about 4.6 candidates per seat. Not sure how that stacks up to past off year elections.

 

Many of those seats will not be unchallenged when all is said and done.

 

As of Wednesday, September 13th, 2017, there are were 1,492 declared candidates for the US- HOR. As of today, Saturday, September 16th, 2017, there are now 1,509 declared candidates:



There were changes in: AZ-06, CA-07, CA-26, IL-06, MA-03, MT-AL, NV-03, NY-11, NY-13, NY-23, NY-24, OR-03, PA-15, TX-27, WA-08.

A number of districts are starting to show a consistent pattern of high candidate intensity, CDs that are generally expected to be very competitive and with a high potential to flip to the other party.

In IL-06 (Peter Roskam, R) there are now 10 D challengers for the primary. This is the second highest total of challengers, right behind TX-32 (Pete Sessions, R), where there are now 12 D challengers.

In WA-08, where Dave Reichert, R, has announced his retirement at the end of this current term, there are already 9 D challengers for the primary. Likewise, in VA-10 (Virgina Comstock, R) and in CA-10 (Jeff Denham, R), there are already 9 D challengers for the primaries in both of those races, respectively.

In NY-19 (John Faso, R), there are 8 D challengers for the primary. In NY-11 (Dan Donovan, R), IL-12 (Michael Bost, R) and AZ-02 (Martha McSally, R), 7 D challengers are already in each of those three races, respectively.

Similarly, in OR-02, 6 D challengers are already in the race for the primary. The Republican incumbent, Greg Walden, was elected to his seat in 1998 and already there is talk that he may be the next R to retire. So, wait and see. In NV-03, 6 Ds and 5 Rs are in the running for the respective primaries for a highly prized open seat. Similarly, in FL-27, 8 Ds and 6Rs are in the race for the seat that Ros-Letinen is giving up. These two races could become two of the hottest marquee HOR races of 2018.

There are also other races with less active candidates but a hot climate likely to be very competitive, namely: IN-04, IN-05, CO-04, CO-05, CO-06, but also MA-03, the one race where a D incumbent is retiring and the Rs are showing great interest. Soon I will be doing a map of the potentially hottest CDs. Then we can follow the money and the flow of the primaries to see where things are going.

As I indicated in the OP, high candidate intensity is not a predictor of a wave nor a guarantee that a seat with this kind of candidate intensity is going to flip, not yet, at least. But the patterns in these CDs have stayed constant or strengthened in the last month. Surely a number of others CDs will also pop up pretty soon. In a potential wave year, this is to be expected. For instance, OH-01 (Steve Chabot, R) is not yet on the radar, but the tilt of OH-01 (Cincy) has really shifted massively since 2012. Despite Clinton losing OH by more than 8 points in the 2016 GE, she won OH-01 (Cincy). So, wait and see.

Source (see postings for September 15th and 14th)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

If Democrats continue to campaign on riots and whining they won't be picking up seats in 2018. They have no platform and even less of a reason for someone to vote against an incumbent Republican...

 

That kind of commentary is not even what this thread is about. Did you even read the OP?

 

Yeah, you are blowing smoke about how Democrats have some sort of chance to pick up seats while ignoring important factors like incumbents. The 'data' you present is utterly meaningless...

 

Ouch: Democratic 2018 Efforts Hit Another Snag As Top Recruit Drops Out Of Targeted Race.....

The Democratic Party is looking at Donald Trump’s approval ratings and sees an opening. Maybe they can ride a blue wave and retake Congress, except it’s already off to a bumpy start. For starters, the Democratic Party has no message, no leader, and no agenda. Yes, that “better deal” was pitched, but it’s vanished largely forgotten by voters and for good reason. It was a carbon copy of Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 campaign platform. Democrats need 24 seats to flip the House and they’re viewing GOP districts in which Hillary won as their road to victory. Yet, that’s the issue. The road to the majority goes through red districts, but they’re not receptive to Democratic politics. In some areas, and fellow Democrats have noted this, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is more reviled and unpopular than Donald Trump.

At the end of the day, some moderate Republicans may not like Trump, but they’re not flipping for the Democrats. Furthermore, surveys have shown that a) there are not enough suburban districts to win back the Democratic majority; b) every suburban district is different; and c) even if every Hillary voter who a GOP member of Congress flipped in 2018—it would not be enough to win back the house. Democratic attacks against Trump on personality and policy have also failed miserably, with the added obstacle that every core item of the liberal agenda falls flat with voters—minimum wage hikes, free college, and even health care register at low levels with those outside of the base. Single-payer may seem sound on paper, but once details are fleshed out, support drops. Even at the outset, voters view the latter with a healthy amount of skepticism concerning benefits and costs.

Now, one candidate in a targeted race, New York’s 27th congressional district, has decided to call it quits after donors felt that she couldn’t beat the incumbent Republican (via Free Beacon):

A top Democratic recruit in an upstate New York district the party is hoping to flip in 2018 announced she is ending her campaign, citing unrealistic fundraising demands by the party for a race her donors don't think can be won.

Erin Cole announced in July she would be running against Republican representative Chris Collins in New York's 27th district, which the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) labeled as one of its targeted districts earlier this year. Cole, an Army veteran, was immediately celebrated by party officials for her "exciting resume" and deemed a "serious contender" in the district.

Cole announced this week on Facebook, however, that she was putting an end to her campaign because her donors are unwilling to meet the DCCC's calls for her to raise $350,000 each quarter through next November.

"After speaking with multiple donors, PACs, and some unions, the majority think that a Dem can't win this district," she wrote.

For the Left, Democratic operatives are also warning that Trump’s low approval ratings don’t mean a wave is coming. In fact, some have noted with that logic, the party is once again heading for the cliff. In NY-23, it looks like that’s already happened.....snip~

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattv...p-recruit-drops-out-of-targeted-race-n2384241


One less bell to answer, huh?

 

Uh oh.....more bad news for the Demos. Say it isn't so.


DNC Falls Further into Debt in August with Abysmal Fundraising Haul.....

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) may be in trouble, according to its latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) filing showing it raised only $4.3 million in August and is $4.1 million in debt. The Republican National Committee (RNC) did much better, raising a whopping $7.3 million in August with no debt. The DNC has raised less than half of what the RNC has raised so far this year.

The DNC's $4.35 million fundraising figure is their second worst August fundraising figure in the past 11 years, coming only slightly ahead of the $4.3 million that the DNC raised in August of 2013.

As Democrats look to the future and the 24 seats the need to retake the House as well as the three states needed for control of the Senate, some in the party are calling for more unity and attempts to appeal to alienated blue collar workers.

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) told Time that he is frustrated with the party’s fixation on divisive issues and "demonization" of business owners.

Former president Barack Obama will give fundraising appearances for the DNC once again as the party tries to improve these numbers......snip~

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/laure...august-with-abysmal-fundraising-haul-n2384691

 

As of Saturday, September 16th, 2017, there were 1,509 declared candidates for the US-HOR. Today, Monday, September 25th, 2017, there are now 1,563 declared candidates:



There were changes in: AZ-09, CA-25, CA-43, CA-48, CA-50, CA-53, CT-03, FL-03, FL-05, FL-07, FL-12, FL-22, FL-23, GA-01, GA-02, IN-06, IN-09, ME-02, MD-06, MD-07, MA-03 (and MA-07), MI-03, MI-11, MN-01, MO-01, MO-02, MO-05, MO-07, NJ-07, NJ-11, NY-02, NY-23, NY-27, NM-02, NC-02, NC-11, OK-02, OR-02, PA-01, PA-11, PA-17, TX-11, TX-14, TX-35, VA-02, VA-06, WA-08, WV-04

That's an addition of 54 candidates from 49 CDs on the total over September 16th and also an addition of 231 since this thread was started on August 7th, 2017, almost 7 weeks ago.

Source (all postings going back from September 25th to September 18th)

Actually, lots of stuff to comment on but no time right now to do it. Maybe later this week.

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

This tells me that you did not read the OP. Thank you for admitting your ignorance on this subject. Have a good day.

 

On Monday, September 25th, 2017, there were 1,563 declared candidates for the US-HOR. As of today, Friday, September 29th, 2017, there are now 1,571 :



5% of all candidates are neither Democratic nor Republican. I have no data from the past to compare this statistic with/to, but I find it interesting that this early in the game, dissent candidates are already at 5% of the total ratpack.

As of today, for each CD, the party in control of that CD will be marked by color (the now widely accepted red vs blue) and the current number of candidates for that CD will be listed in parentheses to the right of the CD itself.

There were changes in: CA-23 (6) CA-39 (9), FL-27 (15) GA-08 (5), IL-10 (4), MA-03 (9) NH-02 (3, 2 Ds, 1L, no R, technically still unopposed), NY-19 ( 8 ) OK-04 (2, the seat is no longer unopposed), UT-02 (5)

There were some articles going around about Democrats having trouble fielding candidates in competitive red CDs in the great State of New York. I would be very wary of such articles this early in the game. Take a look at NY-19: there are now 7 D candidates against one R incumbent. NY-19 is indeed on of maybe 5 very specific D pick-up targets this coming year, just as MA-03 has certainly appeared on the GOP radar screen as a pick-up target. Likewise, a CD that is currently unopposed, like NH-02, is not going to stay that way. The GOP will find a solid candidate to go up against the Democratic incumbent, of this I am quite sure. So, be careful of the propaganda about "well, look, party X is not putting anyone up in X or X district". It's way too early for such punditry. You haven't seen me nor will you see me engage in such speculation so early and maybe, not at all. Let the numbers speak for themselves and as I very, very clearly indicated in my OP, the numbers speak specifically intensity of inerest, nothing less and nothing more. They say nothing at this time about quality of campaigns and more imporantly, $$$. They do, however, show us where most of the marquee races are likely going to happen. And just remember, in every cycle there are a couple of surprises that no one, and I mean, no one saw coming, for those CDs were so far under the radar, noone even bothered to poll, etc.

Source (with entries going back to and including September 26th, 2017)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

I'm sure he is using the same methods that went terribly wrong for him in the general election.

Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

 

On Friday, September 29th, 2017, there were 1,571 declared candidates for the US-HOR. As of today, Tuesday October 3rd, there are now 1,583:



There were changes in: AR-04 (4) AZ-09* ( 8 ), CA-10 (10), LA-03 (3), ME-02 (9), MD-01 (6), MD-06** (10), NJ-04 (4), NJ-07 (10), NY-11*** (9), NY-21 (10), NY-22 (2), PA-11 (6), PA-16**** (7)

Note: as of September 29th, 2017, for each CD, the party in control of that CD is now marked by color (the now widely accepted red vs blue) and the current number of candidates for that CD are listed in parentheses to the right of the CD itself.

*in AZ-09, Democratic incumbent Kirsten Sinema is giving up her seat to run for the US-Senate, so the number of D candidates dropped from 2 to 1. This CD is unique in that it is currently the only CD in the USA where 2 Libertarians are officially in the primary race for a CD.

**in MD-06, where John Delaney is retiring in order to run for President in 2020 (the earliest announcement I have ever seen), interest for this race is growing and interestingly enough, a Green Party candidate is also in the race.

***in NY-11, former Republican congressman Michael Grimm, who resigned this seat in 2015 due to an FBI investigation on 20 counts of tax fraud, where he was found guilty and went to prison, wants his old seat back. Yes, the same Michael Grimm who, on camera, threatened to break a journalist's back and throw said journalist over a railing. Yes, that Michael Grimm. Ahhh, Staaten Island politics... reminds me some of that Democratic fool Randy Cunningham and his freezer antics.

****in PA-16, first-term Republican incumbent Lloyd Smucker is now getting primaried, but not necessarily from the Right of his positions. Bill Neff, who is now challenging him (and apparently, has run more than once before for this seat), is actually to the LEFT of him, based on Neff's positions. He is for fixing Obamacare (as a Republican, just to remind), and also for a pathway to citizenship for some illegal immigrants.

LA-03 was an unopposed race until yesterday. A Democrat has now entered the race against R-inc Clay Higgins.

Source (with entries going back to and including October 2nd, 2017)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

On Tuesday October 3rd, there were 1,583 declared candidates for the US-HOR. Today, Thursday, October 5th, 2017, there are now 1,601. There were a number of additions AND deletions this time as some candidates are now dropping out:



When this thread began on August 7th, almost exactly 2 months ago, there were 1,332 declared candidates. That total has now grown by 269 candidates, a +20.19% growth rate. The margin D to R in terms of number of candidates has remained very steady, at between +28 and +29.

Note: as of September 29th, 2017, for each CD, the party in control of that CD is now marked by color (the now widely accepted red vs blue) and the current number of candidates for that CD are listed in parentheses to the right of the CD itself.

There were changes in: AL-03 (2, no longer unopposed), AZ-01 (4), CA-08 (4), CA-45 (9), CA-52 (3), CO-02 (6, still unopposed), CO-06 (6), GA-10 (6, one of very few Red CDs with a Green Party candidate), IL-16 (9), IN-04 ( 8 ), KS-02 (6), MA-03 (10), MI-03 (5), MI-06 (7), MI-11 (7), MN-01 (10), MO-02 (6), NH-02 (4, no longer unopposed), NJ-11 (7), NM-01 (10), NM-02 (10), NY-02 (3), NY-09 (4), NY-23 (10), PA-04 (3), PA-15 (7) PA-18* (3, now an open and currently unopposed seat), TX-02 ( 8 ), TX-24 (5), VA-06 (4), WA-08 (9, now an open seat, Reichert is definitely not running for re-election)

*Incumbent Rep. Tim Murphy (R, PA-18 ) is not running for re-election, upon relevations that he forced his mistress to have an abortion on the same day he voted for abortion restrictions in the US-HOR. Just a note from the OP: "And as a final note, lots of things can change: a slew of incumbents could announce retirements in 2018, scandals (Weiner or Foley, take your pick) or family tragedies (Mel Carnahan, Senate, 2000) can happen, all sorts of stuff can happen. And in every election cycle I have watched there have been one or two surprises every election: one or two seats that were under the radar switched hands. All of these things can happen, which can make election night a little more exciting."

Source (see postings from October 5th and October 4th combined)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

Re: posting above

GOP Rep. Tim Murphy (PA-18 ) is resigning effective October 21st, so there will soon be a special election for his congressional district. His decision to resign came within 24 hours of first saying he was going to serve his term out but not run for re-election.

PA-18 is, according to the Cook PVI report, an R+11 district.
Murphy ran here in 2014 and 2016 unopposed and since 2002, the worst a Republican has done here was 58% of the vote.

If you look at the complete electoral history of this CD (at least the name PA-18, not necessarily exactly the same geographical boundaries, only 4 Democrats have served her since the GOP was on the ballot in 1857, for a total of 28 out of 160 years. The other 132 years, a Republican has served in this district, a primarily rural district on the SW corner of the state, bordering West Virginia and Ohio.



More details to come later.

 

New Hampshire Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter to retire

Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, the first woman elected to Congress from New Hampshire, said Friday she's retiring at the end of her term.

Shea-Porter, 64, said in a statement that "the time has come in my life to pause and decide on a different path."

Shea-Porter, who was a community activist before coming to Washington, has cut a reliably liberal profile in Washington, voting for the "Obamacare" health law during her second term and the 2010 financial overhaul bill. She has been an ally of Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/10/06/new-hampshire-democratic-rep-shea-porter-to-retire.html

This seat has been flipping back and forth between CSP and Frank Guinta since 2006.

I think this gives the GOP a very good chance of winning the seat back. My husband and I are supporting Andy Sanborn in the Republican primary for her seat. This absolutely helps his chances.

 

Thanks for contributing and yes, it's the first D-retirement on the House level where an R has a realistic chance for a pick-up.

 

As of Thursday, October 5th, 2017, there were 1,601 declared candidates for the US-HOR. As of today, Monday, October 9th, 2017, there are now 1,616:




There were changes in: AL-02 (5), AZ-09 (10), CA-04 (7), CA-17 (3), CA-36 (2, no longer unopposed), CO-02 (7, open, seat is still unopposed), CO-04 (6) CO-07 (2, still unopposed), FL-21 (2, no longer unopposed), IL-04 (1, incumbent Gutierrez just filed, the seat is still unoppposed), MD-06 (11, open seat), MO-06 (3), NH-01 (4, incumbent Shea-Porter is not runnning, it's now an open seat and currently unopposed), NJ-03 (2), NM-02 (11, open seat), PA-11 (7), PA-18* (6), TN-07 (3, now an open seat, Blackburn is running for the Senate), WA-08 (11), WI-05 (4)

Note: as of September 29th, 2017, for each CD, the party in control of that CD is now marked by color (the now widely accepted red vs blue) and the current number of candidates for that CD are listed in parentheses to the right of the CD itself.

*PA-18 is a good example how how nature abhors a vacuum. No sooner did GOP incumbent Tim Murphy first announce that he was not planning to run and then 24 hours later, announced his resignation as of October 21st and immediately, 2 Republicans and yet another Democrat jumped into the race is what is usually a rock-solid GOP district.



Source (see postings from October 9th and October 6th combined)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

On Monday, October 9th, 2017, there were 1,616 declared candidates for the US-HOR. As of today, Tuesday, October 17th, 2017, there are now 1,664:



There were changes in the following 45 CDs: AZ-02 (10), CA-08 (4), CA-36 (4), CA-52 (5), CO-05 (7), CO-06 (7), FL-06 (5), FL-12 (6), FL-16 (7), GA-06 (3, still officially unopposed, Handel has still not declared) GA-11 (6), ID-01 (7), IL-03 (3, still unopposed), IN-02 (5), IN-06 (6), ME-02 (10), MD-01 (7), MA-03 (12), MI-08 (3), MI-11 ( 8 ), MN-01 (9), MT-AL (4, still listed as "open"), NE-03 (3), NH-01 (5, as of last week open, no longer unopposed), NH-02 (4), NY-01 ( 8 ), NY-12 (2, still unopposed), NY-22 (3), NY-26 (2, no longer unopposed), NC-06 (4), NC-11 (5), OH-01 (4)*, OH-16 (7, open seat, Renacci is running for Governor), PA-08 (4, no longer unopposed), PA-11 ( 8 ), PA-15 ( 8 ), PA-18 ( 8 ), SC-05 (1, unopposed D, Norman has not yet declared), TN-02 ( 8 ), TX-08 (6) TX-18 (4), TX-20 (2, no longer unopposed)**, TX-22 (7), VA-09 (3, no longer unopposed), VA-10 (12).

Note: as of September 29th, 2017, for each CD, the party in control of that CD is now marked by color (the now widely accepted red vs blue) and the current number of candidates for that CD are listed in parentheses to the right of the CD itself.

It is interesting to note that in three 2017 special elections (GA-06, MT-AL and SC-05), the current incumbents have still not filed for 2018. This is just a clerical detail and means in no way that they are not running, but they sure are taking their time about it.

*OH-01 may become a very interesting race to watch. This is one of those very wildly gerrymandered CDs that was created in order to divide a large city mainly according to race, namely, in this case, Cincinnatti:



In spite of the redistricting, Chabot has won here with only between 55-59% of the vote, in an area where a Republican presidential candidate has gotten up to 70%, especially in the rural areas. But Trump won in this CD by only +6.6%, (Romney won here by +6.3, so the statistics are very similar) and I am referring to a CD where the 1/5 of the city of Cincinnati, the part that is most friendly to Democrats, is NOT in the CD. The link from the sentence above takes you to a Tableau-Data page where you can compare 2016 to 2012. Just scroll over OH-01 and you will see the results. BTW, the entire county that encompasses Cincy, Clinton won that county by +10.3%, so you can see that the county has been deliberately gerrymandered over 2 congressional districts in order to dilute the strong vote for one specific party. Why am I making a big deal out of this? Well:

2012: Obama wins Ohio by +3.0%, Romney wins OH-01 by +6.3%. Pull to the right, CD over state = R +9.3
2016: Trump wins Ohio by +8.1% (an 11.1% R shift over 2012), Trump wins OH-01 +6.6%. CD over state = D +1.5
So, where most of Ohio shifted wildly toward Trump as opposed to 2012, CD-01 did not. It did not, in spite of a very specially gerrmandered advantage for the Republican party built right into the CD itself.

And for this reason, this CD will be worth watching come 2018. I would still say that R-Inc Steve Chabot, who rode in on the 2010 Red-wave, will be re-elected, but the margin is worth watching.

Now, I will admit to heightened interest in this area since I grew up in Montgomery Co., Oh and know the lay of the lay throughout SW Ohio very, very well.

**In TX-20, Democratic Incumbent and identical twin Joachin Castro now has a Republican challenger, namely Raul Canseco, whom he beat in 2012, who also failed to win the Republican primaries in 2014. In a way, this is a little bit like the Eisenhower-Stevenson 1956 presidential re-matchup, only much smaller!

Source (see postings going back to October 10th)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

On Tuesday, October 17th, 2017, there were 1,664: declared candidates for the US-HOR primaries in 2018. As of today, Friday, October 20th, 2017, there are now 1,690 :



Note: as of September 29th, 2017, for each CD, the party in control of that CD is now marked by color (the now widely accepted red vs blue) and the current number of candidates for that CD are listed in parentheses to the right of the CD itself.

There were changes in the following 27 CDs: CA-12 (5), FL-17 (4), IL-09 (4), IL-17 (5), IN-04 (9), IN-06 (7), MA-09 (2, no longer unopposed), MI-04 (3), MI-11 (9), MS-04 (5), NH-01 (7), NV-03 (open race, 10) NY-10 (2, still unopposed), NY-19 (7), NY-21 (11), NY-27 (3, no longer unopposed), OH-01 (5), OH-04 (3), OH-12 (4, now an open seat)*, PA-15 (9), PA-18 (9), TN-02 (7), TN-08 (2, no longer unopposed), TX-25 (4), UT-04 (6), VA-10 (13), WA-10 (2, still unopposed)

*Republican incumbent Pat Tiberi's (OH-12) retirement announcement means that yet another GOP seat held by a Republican considered to be a "moderate" is now at least in play. Rep. Tiberi has served in OH-12 from 2001 until now and from 1993-2001, was a state Rep from OH-S-26. Although now called a "moderate", he voted against Obama's recovery Act of 2009, he voted to repeal the ACA, he voted to roll-back Medicaid expansion, voted to roll back the privacy rules of the FCC, he voted against a request to see Pres. Trump's tax returns, he proposed legislation to officially make a full-time work week 40 hours instead of 30, he voted to bust unions, etc, etc, etc. So, why pundits are even thinking of calling him a moderate is really beyond me. His voting record is actually very, very conservative. Tiberi took over John Kasich's seat from 2000, which was his only single-point margin win (+9%). but in the last two elections (2014, 2016), he won with between 66-68% of the vote in a District considered (until now) a rock-solid GOP district. Interestingly enough, in the last nine HOR elections in OH-12, a Libertarian was on the ballot three times and a Green Party candidate was on the ballot the last two times, even got around 4% in 2014. OH-12 is also wierdly gerrymandered:



It starts with the upper-collar county areas just north of Columbus (Powell, Westerville, New Albany) and the very rural areas from Licking and Muskingum counties, the mixture of rural and very GOP leaning suburban parts of Delaware County and the most deeply rural parts south of Mansfield but not in Mansfield. It completely avoids Mt. Vernon (which has a very liberal College and tends to be more Democratic), so the CD was gerrymandered to concentrate Republican strength between the capitol city of Columbus and the next half-way large city of Mansfield.

Just for historical clarity, Pres. Trump won OH-12 by +11.3% (53.20% to 41.90%) in 2016 while at the same time, Tiberi held his seat by +36.24% (66.56% to 29.84%). In 2012, Romney won OH-12 by +10.5% (54.40% to 43.90%), so Trump improved slightly on Romney's performance from 2012, but in relation to how the state swung from 2012 to 2016 overall, this county was not a driver of his success. Here the easy math:

2012: Obama wins Ohio by +3.0%, Romney wins OH-12 by +10.5%. Pull to the right, CD over state = R +13.5
2016: Trump wins Ohio by +8.1% (an 11.1% R shift over 2012), Trump wins OH-01 +11.3%. CD over state = R +3.2

So, the R-pull in OH-12 was decidely less than R-pull statewide and even more so than the R-pull from 2012. In other words, on the presidential level, this CD remained relatively static while many other parts of the state shifted dramatically. Still, a double-digit win is a double-digit win.

Will the Democrats pick up this seat in 2018? I would say it's doubtful, but even if they put a rock-solid GOP seat in play, this of course forces the GOP to shift funds to a CD that was once a bastion CD. So, as is the case with OH-01, OH-12 now goes onto the radar as a seat to at least watch closely. Again, the lesson to be learned here is: margins matter.

Source (see postings going back to October 18th)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat

 

The vicissitudes of the erratic Executive has senior Republicans in Congress abandoning ship.

This has implications for '18.

​

There will be no shortage of full-mooners in the age of trumpery eager to replace them, but normal incumbents hold a much firmer stranglehold on seats in all but the most hyper-partisan districts.

 

The Cook Report now reports that it thinks about 80 HOR races are competitive:

http://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
(That link is bound to change it's content with time)

There is also a .pdf available for download HERE.
However, that link will also be updated sometime soon, so I've loaded this particular document from October 13th, 2017 to GOOGLE DOCS.

I made a screenshot of the races that Cook considers competitive:



Now, certainly not all of these seats are going to change hands, but the Ds only need to pick up 24 seats in order to get to the magic number of 218, which is majority.
When you look at the list, you already see one R-seat that is in the lean-D column (Ros-Lehtinen's seat in FL). Where there are 3 D tossups, there are 12 R tossups. Where there are 6 Lean-D seats (one of them currently an R seat), there are 23 Lean-R seats.

This looks a lot like the cook ratings from 2010, only in reverse colors, where there were oodles of Lean-D seats and very few lean-R seats.

Now, Cook is just the opinion of one organization, but they are indeed non-partisan and their ratings are based on pure math.

One real surprise I note here is the rating change for KY-06 (Barr), from solid R to likely R.

We are seeing a lot of seats from CA, PA and NY on the radar right now. Also, the seat in IA-01 is being underreported.

In the next days I will run a compare with this listing to the number of candidates currently declared for each seat listed. I bet there will be a strong correlation between a large number of interested candidates and toss-up / lean seats.

-Stat

 

On Friday, October 20th, 2017, there were 1,690 declared candidates for the US-HOR. As of Friday, October 27th, there are now 1,726:



That is almost 400 more declared candidates than when this thread was created on August 7th, 2017.

Note: as of September 29th, 2017, for each CD, the party in control of that CD is now marked by color (the now widely accepted red vs blue) and the current number of candidates for that CD are listed in parentheses to the right of the CD itself.

There were changes in the following 27 CDs: AZ-01 (5), CA-28 (5), CA-36 (4), CA-52 (6), FL-03 (4), FL-20 (2), GA-06 (4, still unopposed), HI-01 (2, no longer unopposed), IL-07 (4, still unopposed), IL-11 (2, no longer unopposed), IN-02 (7), IN-03 (3), MD-02 (3), MD-06 (12), MT-AL (6), NY-13 (3, still unopposed), NY-21 (12), NY-27 (4), OH-13 (2, no longer unopposed), PA-07 (7), PA-15 (10), PA-18 (10),TX-12 (2), TX-15 (2, no longer unopposed), TX-22 (8 , TX-35 (3), WI-03 (3)

I also combed through the entire data again (all 435 seats) and found following slight changes in these 16 CDs: CA-35 (from 3 to 2), CA-53 (2 to 3, no longer unopposed), CO-06 (from 7 to 8 , IL-04 (from 1 to 2, still unopposed), KY-05 (from 2 to 1, once again unopposed, incumbent in office since 1981), MD-02 (from 2 to 3, no longer unopposed), MD-07 (from 6 to 7), MA-02 (from 4 to 5), MI-09 (from 1 to 2, no longer unopposed), MN-04 (from 2 to 3, no longer unopposed), NH-01 (from 7 to 8 , PA-09 (from 3 to 4), TN-02 (from 7 to 8 , TX-01 (3 to 5), UT-03 (spec 2017 election, from 6 to 8 , VA-07 (from 8 to 9).

Sometimes a lateral change is what is meant: a candidate first listed as unaffilated who then declared for one of the named parties, etc.

We are now seeing less and less unopposed races, even in districts that have long been uncontested.

We will surely be seeing many changes in the next two months before the primary season begins, either as last-minute entries or withdrawals of candidates, if for no other reason, then financially.

Regardless of your political leanings, this is shaping up to be an exciting mid-term season, with tons of fresh new faces.

Source (see postings going back to October 23rd)

Don't forget: the link to the EXCEL document containing all of the numbers plus various links is at the OP, but for ease of reference, HERE as well.

-Stat