2020 Presidential Election Electoral Endcount: Biden 306 / Trump 232, Biden +74 electors

<MOD EDIT AS REQUESTED>


Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington State
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE END-TOTALS

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The networks have made the last three calls today, 2020-11-013:

Arizona (11 EV) for Biden
North Carolina (15 EV) for Trump
Georgia (16 EV) for Biden

In the online polling tables, which I have been tending to for more than one year's time, I have added a tab for the CNN election calls:



The CNN timetable is similar to most all others, only, FOX and AP called Arizona for Biden already on November 4th, whereas everyone else did that today.

And here I am starting the endcount for the 2020 elections by statewide results with a massive set of excel tables, going all the way back to the results from 2004:

2020 GE over 2016, back to 2004 - Hochrechnungen

I am also doing something similar for the HOR races:

435 House Races 2020 over 2018

The data for 2020 has not yet been input, because I generally wait until each state releases it's official canvass (which is usually the job of the respective Secretaries of State), which is also the data that will be input into the congressional record next year. Also, the data for 2016 over 2012 is not yet complete. However, 2012 over 2008 and 2008 over 2004 are both complete.

And that is actually the reason for these thread: to inform all of you each time a state has released it's final numbers.

By the time the slates of electors meet in their respective states to cast their votes for the next US President, the end-totals for all 50 states and DC should then be complete.

I link directly to the documents that each state provides, but also link to Dave Leip's USelectionatlas, because he does better work than anyone else out there in getting the data right and keeping it right all through the years.

So, this thread is a work-in-progress, designed to keep people up to date on the end-numbers as they come in. It's designed to be a help to everyone in PF.

-Stat

 

So, the first outlook is into the national popular vote, which is often changing slightly from minute to minute, but right now:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results



Right now, President-elect Joe Biden (D) is just under 78 million votes, while President Trump is just under 72.7 milion votes, giving Biden a +5.3 million raw-vote edge over the President.

I like the NBC page for this because they also give a pretty good estimate of how many votes are still "out", meaning, they still need to be counted. According to NBC, there are still 6.1 millon votes left to count. Were Biden and Trump to split these votes right down the middle, then Biden would land at 81 million votes and Trump at 75.7 million, but the trend has been that Biden has a massive edge in the final votes to come in and if you scroll over the states, a pop-up screen will let you know how much of the vote has been counted. In the great state of New York, only 84% of the vote is in, and most of it is from the boroughs in the New York City area. Also, New Jersey is 92% in, the last 8% will probably skew very, very heavily for Biden. The argument for this is simple: the networks waited to make a call in Pennsylvania until the overseas/military ballots for Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) were counted. Pittsburgh istself is, unsurprisingly, very blue, the the rest of the county is ruby-red. As the end votes were counted, Biden won them 4 to 1, 80% to 20%, and then the networks, including Fox News, called PA for Biden. If it was this way in Allegheny county, then just imagine what it is going to be like with the last votes in very blue areas of the country.

Of the 25 Trump states, 21 of them are now at 99% of precincts having fully reported. The four with less than 99%: both Iowa and Kentucky (98%), Mississippi (97%) and Ohio (95%).

Of the 26 Biden states (including DC), only 11 are at 99% of precincts having fully reported but a lot are at at least 98%. Most notably, other than NY and NJ (already mentioned), these states are still under 99%: California (97%), Massachusetts (93%), Maine (91%), Maryland (90%), DC (88%). So, it's very likely that Biden will end up with about 4.5 of those remaining 6.1 million outstanding ballots to be counted, bringing Biden to about 82.5 million and Trump to 74.2 million. That's a lot of votes yet to pick up in NY, NJ, CA, MA, ME, MD and DC, also dark blue states.

Wait and see, but it is very much looking like this will happen.

Of course, the national popular vote is merely a cosmetic thing, because the electors decide who will be the next president, but a massive raw vote margin does indeed indicate a mandate. In 2004, late in the night, as everything was hanging on the results from Ohio, even CNN was noting that then President George W. Bush (43) was 3 million votes ahead of challenger John Kerry.

I will be updating this posting regularly.

-Stat

 

I think that for posterity's sakes, it would be good to record some of the media coverage of the last presidential state calls of the 2020 presidential election, in no particular order (and yes, one is from the main news outlet in Germany, ARD):



At the time I made these screenshots, FOX News had not yet made the calls in NC and GA.

 

Some critical news concerning election litigation:



This means that the Trump team is not going to contest the call in AZ.
Also, their attempt in MI was quashed.
And it's not a good look when part of your representation literally quits the hoped-for case in PA.

So, forget the bluster you may or may not hear on TV. Read for yourself what the lawyers for each political team are doing - or not doing.

 

Its a done eal.

Basta

 

"La commedia e finita"

(the comedy is over with)

 

La commedia e finita.
Sadly not, 2 month we will watch Rom burn.

 

Of the circa 6,000,000 LEGAL ballots left to be counted, almost 960,000 of them are in California:

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2020-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf



If you go to the .pdf link, you will see that the overwhelming majority of ballots left to count are from large urban areas that skew heavily Democratic.

Contrary to conspiracy theories, California has a practically airtight system for voting and does an excellent job of counting and auditing.

It looking like 17.8 million total ballots in our Republic's largest state, when all is said and done. In 2016, it was 14.2 million.

Also, Joe Biden just set a first time ever raw vote record by being the first presidential nominee ever to win a statewide total of votes in the 9-digit-zone. He is already over 10,000,000 votes in California. Right now, he's at 10.4 million and will likely come close to 11 million when the final canvass (Statement of Vote) comes out for CA.

 

Same electoral numbers as 2016.

Republicans and Trump, specifically, called it an overwhelming mandate.

It's fun watching the people who called democrats childish and snowflakes for the last four years, setting out to prove that that they can be childish snowflakes, too.

SMH - I was hoping they would show up and behave like adults. Maybe it's just the nature of forums. The democrats in my life don't behave this way, nor do the republicans in my life.

Well, it will be a mirror image. I expect "elections have consequences," will be used with increasing frequency.

 

So, here we go.

As of today, 2020-11-014, 8 states had deadlines for certified results for all of their races:

DELAWARE, VERMONT, SOUTH DAKOTA (3 EV a piece), OKLAHOMA (7 EV) - deadline was 2020-11-010, deadline was met
LOUISIANA (6 EV) - deadline was 2020-11-010, Louisiana is still posting unofficial results, so there is a small delay, here.
WYOMING (3 EV), SOUTH CAROLINA (9 EV), deadline was 2020-11-011, deadline was met.
MISSISSIPPI (6 EV), deadline was 2020-11-013, Mississippi has posted the county by county canvasses, but not the statewide results encapsulated, so there is a small delay here.

This means that of those 8 states, I can publish the final results for 6 of them.

If you want to go to the links themselves, then use the online presidential results table I have provided in the OP.

And away we go.

 

DELAWARE - Joe Biden (D) won 3 EV​

Delaware did not include the write-ins in the calculations, but I do, so this is why the calculations at my excel table are slightly different than the Delaware website.

Here the write-in votes:

 

VERMONT - Joe Biden (D) won 3 EV​

 

SOUTH DAKOTA - Donald Trump (R) won 3 EV​

 

WYOMING - Donald Trump (R) won 3 EV​

 

OKLAHOMA - Donald Trump (R) won 7 EV​

On the House level, the Democrats lost OK-05 narrowly, a seat they had just picked up in 2018.

 

SOUTH CAROLINA - Donald Trump (R) won 9 EV​

On the House level, the Democrats lost SC-01 narrowly, a seat they had just picked up in 2018.

 

I am suspecting that by Monday, both MISSISSIPPI and LOUISIANA will have made their results final, which I will then post here.

Deadlines for vote-certification in the coming week:

Monday, 2020-11-016: VIRGINIA
Tuesday, 2020-11-017: FLORIDA, MARIANAS ISLANDS (the Islands do not vote in the presidential elections, but they do have downballot races)
Wednesday, 2020-11-018: ARKANSAS, IDAHO and MASSACHUSETTS
Friday, 2020-11-020: NORTH DAKOTA

However, there are some states with no specific deadlines for vote-certification, their totals could come through any time now: RHODE ISLAND, NEW HAMPSHIRE, HAWAII and TENNESSEE. Also, among the territories (which do not vote in the presidential election, but do have downballot races): AMERICAN SAMOA, GUAM and PUERTO RICO.

So, with MISSISSIPPI and LOUISIANA in the mix, by the coming Friday, I should be able to report on up to 12 more states in total.

BTW: Source.

 

There are 1.53 million votes left to count in the great state of New York, because their state rules did not allow them to start counting absentee ballots until November 10th, 2020. This is why NY is so far behind the curve, an issue that voters have complained about in this state and it is looking as if there is going to be a change in the law concerning this before the next election.

Statewide, in both red and blue counties, there are absentee ballots to count, but by far the lion's share of them will be found in the boroughs of NYC, also in Rochester, Albany, Buffalo, Syracuse and Nassau, meaning, in the cities and in the suburbs.

Since NY is a far, far more left leaning state than Pennsylvania and Biden started winning in the absentee/overseas/military ballots in PA in counties like Allegheny by 4:1 over Trump, it' very possible that Biden will get between 1.1 and 1.2 of the 1.5 million outstanding votes left to count. Between NY, NY and CA, these massive Biden votes will surely bring him over 51% nationally, probably closing in on 52%. Wait and see.

 

An update from the great state (Commonwealth) of Pennsylvania:

The current totals, being reported by all news outlets other than FOX:

Biden: 3,417,479 (49.8%)
Trump: 3,351,976 (48.9%)
Margin: Biden +65,503 (+0.9%)



However, Fox is now listing larger numbers, including a slightly larger raw vote and +percentage lead for President-elect Biden (I think they updated while others are sleeping):

Biden: 3,418,435 (49.9%)
Trump: 3,352,569 (48.9%)
Margin: Biden +65,866 (+1.0%)






Fact is that this margin, which will surely continue to grow, is larger, both in terms of +raw votes and in terms of +percent-margin, than President Trump's win in this Commonwealth over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

The Biden team is very confident that when the very last votes are counted (should be finished this week, assuming no more challenges), then they will come close to or over a +100,000 vote lead over Trump, which means that Biden will also go over 50% in the Keystone State, when all is said and done.

It should also be noted that Trump campaign lawsuits all over the place are getting thrown out of court and in very many of those cases, by Republican appointed judges who have been writing extremely biting comments in their decisions to reject the lawsuits. Those judges simply will have none of this malarkey.

-Stat

 

The federal court ruling in the PA case was interesting in that there was a legitimate allegation that the extended deadline for mail-in ballots was NOT made by the legislature which had sole authority to do so. The court DECISION made this clear but RULED that there was NO intent by the voters themselves to commit any fraud since they were IN COMPLIANCE with what they had been told. Since the voters were NOT at fault the court decided that it would be a VIOLATION of their voting rights to throw out their ballots.

In essence a mistake made by the government cannot be used to DEPRIVE individuals of their Constitutional Right to Vote.

 

BTW, the Detroit Free Press has published a most excellent graphic and timetable for the certification of votes from the various states, the meeting of the electors, the swearing in of the new congress and the counting of the electors before Inauguration Day, 2021:

https://eu.freep.com/in-depth/news/...nd-what-expect/6234952002/#mainContentSection

They've done an really admirable job with it. Take a look.

 

An update on California. When I made the posting being quoted, on November 14th, four days ago, there were 959,000 ballots outstanding.

Using the same link:

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2020-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf

We are now down to "only" 528,000 ballots, or a cool half-million, left to count in the great state of California:



As was the case four days ago, the lion's share of the ballots yet to count are from the largest cities, foremost among them, Los Angeles, but also a bevy of ballots out of Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino and San Joaquin counties as well..

So, where does the California statistic currently stand?


Right now, were not a single vote be added to the count, Joseph Robinette Biden has already made electoral history by scoring the highest raw vote total (over 10,000,000 votes) and the highest raw vote margin (over +5,000,000) within a state - in all of our Republic's history. Right now, Biden's +percentage margin is minimally under Clinton's, but once those remaining 528,000 ballots have been counted, his margin is going to rise. With a topline percentage of 63.71%, even if it doesn't move up any more (it will somewhat), Biden has still scored the best statistic for any candidate in this state since 1936, also a better statistic than any Republican contrahent until all the way back to 1924. California was Ronald Reagan's home-state, and yet, the Gipper was unable to get over 57.5% in his own state.

Where do these 528,000 outstanding ballots stand in relation to the rest of the nation?



With just a little more than 4,000,000 ballots to count nationally, the number of outstanding ballots left to count in California account for 13.11% of all ballots left to count nationwide. Advantage in terms of added raw (LEGAL!) votes yet to count: Biden.

Add to that an estimated 1,274,000 outstanding ballots yet to be processed in New York (which is still stuck at only 84% reported in), most of them from the boroughs themselves, this means that New York accounts for 31.6% of all ballots left to count nationwide. Currently, in New York, the percentages are Biden 55.7% / Trump 42.8% (which is a dream % for a Republican in this state), but once those 1,274,000 remaining ballots are counted in the Empire State, then Biden is likely to land around 65%. In New York, we saw this kind of delay in 2012 due to the massive storm that pummeled the NE shortly before the election.

So, between CA and NY, about 44.7% of all ballots left to be counted nationwide are from these two Democratic strongholds.

Biden is definitely going to go over 51% nationally, when all the numbers are in and this thing is "ad acta". I am writing this now so that in case some people start to get upset when Biden's raw numbers shoot up suddenly at the end of the counting, now you know why.

Also, in the great state of Alaska, although he lost the state by 10 points to Trump, Biden's 42.9% in Alaska is the highest topline % for a Democrat in this state in 56 years time, since 1964. Biden is one of only 5 Democratic presidential nominees total to get over 40% of the vote in this state: Kennedy, LBJ, Humphrey, Obama and now, Biden. In the other 11 presidential cycles since this state was added to the Union and then voted in a presidential election (1960), all others came in under 40%: McGovern, Carter (1976 and 1980) Mondale, Dukakis, Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore, Kerry, Obama (2008, but not 2012) and Hillary Clinton

-Stat

 

More info on Pennsylania:



Some on the Right are not taking this well:

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ed-ballots-2-weeks-election-day-85-joe-biden/

Apparently, they have never seen an election be counted ever before in their lifetimes.

Rudy Guiliani, the weird uncle whom no one wants at their Thanksgiving feast, just called 700,000 LEGAL ballots "surreptitious" ballots because they were counted (*gasp*) after election day during a raging pandemic where millions upon millions of Americans voted by mail-in ballot and in Pennsylvania, the Republicans in the legislature blocked every single attempt to at least let people open up one of the two envelopes before election day. Nope, in Pennsylvania, they were required to open the mail-in ballots on the day AFTER election day and alone, in the middle of COVID-19 pandemic, the time it takes to open both envelopes, with plastic gloves on, is far longer than it used to be. And for those easily swayable idiots at the Gateway Pundit, large cities always take longer to get all the votes counted, this is nothing new.

Sometimes, I really feel sorry for people. But not for people who are this stupid.

 

Can 2 million people vote who are not eligible?

 

FLORIDA - Donald Trump (R) won 29 EV​