The death of Thad Cochrane makes this a good time and that a good nail to take a first look at the 2020 Senate races. Here's how I see it at this distance. Alabama: Democrat Jones doomed Alaska: Republican Sullivan safe Arkansas Republican Cotton safe Colorado: Republican Gardner shaky Delaware: Democrat Coons shaky Georgia: Republican Perdue safe Idaho: Republican Risch safe but may retire Illinois: Durbin safe but may retire Iowa: Republican Ernst shaky Kansas: Republican Roberts safe seat Kentucky: Republican McConnell safe Louisiana: Republican Cassidy shaky Maine: Republican Collins shaky may retire Massachusetts: Democrat Markey safe Michigan: Democrat Peters shaky Minnessota: Democrat Smith shaky Mississippi: Republican Hyde-Smith safe Montana: Republican Gaines shaky Nebraska: Republican Sasse safe New Hampshire: Democrat Shaheen shaky New Jersey: Democrat Booker safe seat New Mexico: Democrat Udall shaky North Carolina: Republican Tillis safe Oklahoma: Republican Inhofe safe seat Oregon: Democrat Merkley safe Rhode Island: Democrat Reed safe South Carolina: Republican Graham safe South Dakota: Republican Rounds safe Tennessee: Republican Alexander safe seat Texas: Republican Cornyn safe Virginia: Democrat Warner safe West Virginia: Republican Capito safe Wyoming: Republican Enzi retiring safe seat That makes 6 Democrats and 5 Republicans in danger. They need coattails and wisdom about retirement.
Oh no telling what smear and slander scheme the Democrats will come up with against whoever runs on the Republican side. I wrote Jones on two occasions one was the Kavenaugh nomination which he tried to wishy wash himself out of voting for and the other the shutdown over the wall funding telling him that if he expected to get reelected he better support both. He did not, don't know how he thinks that is going to get him re-elected.
Nope! The draconian abortion law passed in Al Ab Ama is MOTIVATION for women to ensure that Jones retains his Senate seat. He is not doomed yet but yes, the seat is still up for grabs. Given the turnout in 2018 was almost the same as a presidential year the odds are 50:50 as to who will win that senate seat.
Collins is probably toast now given her votes for those other BLOTUS judges. McConnell is going to have a fight on his hands and it will get down and dirty but he will ultimately prevail. Ultimately the outcome of the Senate is going to depend upon the strength of the Blue Wave generated by the Progressives and the women who are motivated by the attempts to take away their reproductive rights. If it builds upon what happened in 2018 then the "shaky Dems" will be "safe" and some of the "shaky Republicans" will lose. Keep an eye on the Progressives and how they do in the Primaries and that will give you a good reading on those Senate races IMO.
That's why I expect Collins to retire, but a 3-way race with ranked voting might get her through. Udall's the safest shaky I think.
