>95% probability of M7.0 quake in San Francisco before Jan.6?

The "Ground Zero" radio show, and its host, Clyde Lewis, was on last evening announcing that a website called quakeprediction.com says that the San Francisco area has a 95% - 98% probability of an earthquake before January 6, 2023! In Clyde Lewis' analysis, he attributed this likelihood to what he interpreted to be "earthquake weather"....

It is common for quake predictions to be issued early in every January because that is when the Earth is at its perihelion with our sun -- and we will reach our closest distance to the sun TODAY: "In 2023, Earth is at perihelion on January 4 at 11:17 A.M. Eastern Time and will be at aphelion on July 6 at 4:06 P.M." Link: https://www.almanac.com/content/what-aphelion-and-perihelion#:~:text=Perihelion and Aphelion in 2023,6 at 4:06 P.M.

I've dabbled in seismology and paleoseismology for many years, studying the works of people as diverse as the late Jim Berkland, and the "Father of Paleoseismology", Dr. Kerry Sieh, along with other notable experts. I see no validity in the concept that merely being 'closer' to the sun by a negligible distance enhances the likelihood of earthquakes anywhere to any significant degree. So, in an admittedly unprofessional capacity, I'm calling 'nonsense' on this particular earthquake prediction.

Oh, BTW, according to the USGS, there is no such thing as "earthquake weather".... Link: https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/there-earthquake-weather#:~:text=A later theory stated that,weather, rainy weather, etc.

Now, what do you think...? Please respond before January 6th, for obvious reasons.

 

So, what's the big deal, Pollycy? You lived through the SF earthquake in 1989, I presume? It was 6.9.
But because of that quake now buildings are made much more stronger, so they should withstand.

Anyway, I wish you all good look. Better sleep in a caravan for a couple of nights, if you don't trust you house.

P.S. You forgot the poll.

 

Oh, believe me, I don't live in California! No way... I'm in the Denver-Colorado Springs 'corridor', tucked-up against the Rocky Mountains.

You're right that the Loma Prieta quake in 1989 wasn't catastrophic... in fact, it was only a M6.9 shaker, but it did a lot of damage in the subsidence-prone areas in the Bay Area anyway, and also down toward Santa Cruz. Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Loma_Prieta_earthquake

The quake I would be worried about if I lived out there would be the one that has been forecast on the Hayward Fault ever since the San Francisco quake on the San Andreas Fault in 1906. 'Hayward', as you probably know, runs directly beneath the city of Oakland, and when it 'goes' it is expected to be a massive quake because of the stresses added by the 1906 quake next-door in S.F., and, because of Loma Prieta, too.

But, the idea of "earthquake weather" and earthquakes being tied to perihelion is just QUATSCH, as far as I'm concerned.

I thought of adding a poll, but then I thought, what questions could I ask besides, "Do you think this prediction about the next two days is true or not -- yes or no...?"

 

Good for you. At least you don't fear tsunamis.

Hm, how did I remember you were a "cali"? Anyways.

Actually not. The Earth an even more so the Sun are giant magnets, which interact with each other. Take for example the regular magnets - if you push them together they either stick or repel each other. The more you bring them together the more they influence each other and vice versa.
Anyways, we'll see in the next 48 hours. If there is gonna be an earthquake, what can we do, except call our peers in California to talk to them one last time?

 

One thing is for sure, Canell -- if I were ever faced with having to move to California today, I would be very certain to get an additional earthquake-rider on my home insurance! Earthquakes can strike at ANY time, as we both know, and at some point one of several faults is going to break, taking a lot of the economy of the United States with it. Watch the Hayward Fault and, of course, the San Andreas... but also watch the Elsinore and San Jacinto Faults way down in far-Southern California, and take special note of the Garlock Fault, which runs mostly east-west. Where Garlock meets the San Andreas Fault is of great interest to me... almost as interesting as Hayward under Oakland....

 

Wouldn't recommend it. Have you ever heard of Joe Brandt? Look him up. He had a vision of the sinking of a great part of Commifornia.

I think the US can manage without California. They want to secede anyway. But what bothers me, the Internet could stop, cause I think the servers of ICAAN are in Cali, and without those servers the Internet cannot work, I think.

 

It's already January 5th and there's no earthquake yet....

 

When I said that an especially cataclysmic earthquake in California would tank the whole U. S. economy, I was thinking about the overall effects, which would be enormous, and, far-reaching. Losing the use of the seaports alone would be utterly devastating, to say nothing of the impact on our food supplies, etc.

Next, I'd never heard of Joe Brandt, so I looked him up. He had his 'dream' in 1937, which came four years after the M6.4 Newport-Inglewood quake, but there were no significant quakes in SoCal that year or for long afterward (?). Anyway, I'd put him in a category of other 'seers', and 'dreamers', like Lori Toye, Gordon-Michael Scallion, et al.

Well, in fairness, let's give it until midnight tonight, or until when the sun rises over California Friday morning, January 6th.

There will be a full moon on January 6th, but it will be a "micromoon", with the moon at its farthest point from Earth, called 'apogee'. Those who believe that the moon causes earthquakes usually hold that the moon's effect is greatest when it is at 'perigee', the closest point to Earth.

Anyhow, all things being equal, I think Mr. Lewis' feature on this "January 5th earthquake" is going to be a bust, but talking about it fills the brief periods between long commercial segments -- and that's what 'talk' radio is all about in the 21st-century.... (but it gets you to sleep faster than pills, too!)

 

Essentially, there isn't any credible evidence of this earthquake happening. Clyde doesn't seem to be credible. Where would this pent up energy that would have to be evidenced come from?

 

Ostensibly, pressure has build up enormously on the Hayward Fault (directly underneath Oakland) since the 1906 San Francisco quake, and it was supposedly made worse by the Loma Prieta quake in 1989. Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone

Some seismologists believe that when the Hayward breaks, it will cause immense damage in Oakland, and on the neighboring San Andreas Fault as well, ripping San Francisco "a new one"....

 

I'm sure the US can cope without California, the land of fruits and nuts. Is the "salad express" still running?
But the psychological trauma of California sinking would probably sink the U.S.

The interesting thing is he in his vision sees young men with earnings and beards. A hint about the time that the event will "eventually" occur. Don't know the fashion in Commifornia today.



Anyway, dutchsince on Youtube said this is fake news. And he is much more trusted than those guys.
May be Commiofrnia will have an earthquake and even sink some day, but who knows when?

 

The real 'sleeper' which no one talks about is what Dr. Brian Atwater (among others) says is going to happen to the coastal Pacific Northwest -- and which, according to him, is due just any time now. Imagine earthquake(s) and tsunamis, probably accompanied by lots of fun volcanic activity in Mt. Rainier, that would make anything and everything that is even geologically possible in California look trivial by comparison. But, that's the stuff of another thread yet-to-come. Keep smiling -- and -- just to be on the safe side, don't even think about moving to Portland or Seattle!

Teaser: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Atwater#:~:text=In 2005, he published a,as the 1700 Cascadia earthquake.

 

I doubt it, it's always been impossible to predict earthquakes.

 

Is there nothing that the gullible won't believe?

 

Many times through history we've seen that some people have made very good livings by running their own little 'cottage-industries' that claim to be able to predict the future. You gotta admit... it sure beats digging ditches....

I stick to science, and even at that, very "scholarly", predictive seismology is notoriously inaccurate! Still, as they say in academic seismology circles, "the longer it's been since your last quake, the closer you are to your next one...."

 

As expected, nothing.

Never heard of him but I'll keep in mind.

 

WELL, here we are, at 0715, Mountain Standard Time, on January 6, 2023, and guess what? The only earthquake noted by the USGS in California through yesterday was a M 3.5 'wiggler' near a place called Humbolt Hill, located about 285 miles north of San Francisco.

Link: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/nc73829331/executive

Oh, well... it gave some of us something to talk about for a couple of days besides how fugged up the government is, etc. Onward!

 

Is that per year, or per millennium? But… it’s early yet. I’m close enough to feel it! So far nothing.

 

No biggie quakes in Cali today! Just a little M 3.5 'wiggler' way north of San Fran. Hell, they have bigger quakes than that which are set off by fracking in the oil and gas fields of Texas and Oklahoma....

 

You know what the scouts say, Pollicy - be prepared.
Someday it's gonna hit.

 

Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, "as they say in academic seismology circles, 'the longer it's been since your last quake, the closer you are to your next one'...."

But, unlike some earthquake 'prophets', at least I'm not trying to make money off of predicting them....

Still, seriously, some day either the Garlock, the Hayward and/or the San Andreas Fault is going to break -- and break in a very big way. And when that happens, it's going to be really, really bad. One thing I'm pretty sure of, though -- I won't be anywhere near California when it happens....

 

Coming from the same “academic” pimping Global Warming… then the Green Luddites changed it to Global Change to double their grip on the economy!

 

I guess we both know that the climate has been changing ever since there was an atmosphere on Earth... and for perhaps longer than that there have been earthquakes, too. And, for millions of years hereafter, there will be more climate changes, and more earthquakes also. Ho-hum.

But it's a different thing altogether to try to use these inevitabilities as a mechanism to lead the gullible, ignorant masses around like barnyard animals with rings in the ends of their noses....

 

OK, one last post in this admittedly silly little thread I started....

Question! What do you call people make highly-detailed predictions about the 'when', 'where', and 'how much' of earthquakes, but who don't even have a degree in Geophysics and/or Seismology? EARTHQUACKS!

Nevertheless, if you live in any of the coastal regions of California, Oregon, or Washington State, strongly consider getting insurance for your property that does cover damage by quakes and tsunamis. Have a lovely day!

 

I don't think if there is a tsunami that sweeps away your house, and you are in it, you would need that insurance.