A slight wrinkle in the EU economic resilience to Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by The Scotsman, Mar 6, 2020.

  1. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    So you may have noticed the rather large sell-offs lately which amongst other things has farted up my pension a wee bit. Anyway it seems that EU's macroeconomic outlook for 2020 is going slightly south for the moment. its now anticipated that the eurozone GDP growth is looking like 0.5%, versus the previous forecast of 1.0%, due to the effects of the nasty wee bug. For the U.K., it is expected a smaller 20 basis point reduction in growth to 0.8% for 2020...yay us!! Anyway hopefully it won't get any worse or it'll be a bit of a bugger for everyone.

    The usual demand and supply factors are at play. For now, the main drag on growth will be the faltering external demand and supply chain bottlenecks, but domestic demand seems to be starting to weaken across Europe as well, and not only just in Italy which seems to be coughing and sneezing itself to bits. So a bit of context to this, Italy so far the hardest hit of the EU by the virus, is facing a 0.3% contraction for the full year, while Germany's growth is set to stagnate as supply chain disruptions hamper its industries amid weaker external demand.

    So, a 10 basis point deposit rate cut is likely which doesn't really amount to a row of beans but hey. It is expect that to combat slower growth, weaker pricing pressure, and tighter financial market conditions, the ECB will cut its deposit rate by 10 bps this month - and for those that really get off on this stuff they might even relax the deposit-tiering system to alleviate the impact of more negative rates on banks' interest margins.

    for them that like pictures...well here you go

    upload_2020-3-6_16-44-41.png
    upload_2020-3-6_16-45-21.png
    So for those that think this wee bug is just noise....well its not.
     

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    Last edited: Mar 6, 2020
  2. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    That beer virus has a serious impact.
    It has to run its course, me thinks. No reason to panic, me thinks.
    I have had the Coronas Virus for years, very tasty, with a Lemon and some Salt.
    Cold naturally.

    Stay thirsty my man.
     
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  3. alexa

    alexa Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I am sure all the families of the people dying in Italy agree with you. Germany is in recession anyway.
     
  4. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    ….watch this space...
     
  5. waltky

    waltky Well-Known Member

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    Dey need to quit pickin' dey's noses...

    ... after dey scratch dey's butts!
     
  6. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Cry me a river.
     
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