A very simple and easy to understand explanation of why climate change is REAL.

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by SuperfluousNinja, May 4, 2017.

  1. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Good questions.

    [​IMG]

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/research/themes/forcing/

    From the left hand column in this chart you'll notice that scientists are saying CO2 is adding a little less than 1.5 watts per square meter of heat to our planet.

    At the top of the column that includes CO2, CH4, N20 and Halocarbons you'll notice the error bars that indicate a high and low for the total contribution of that column - an idea of how sure scientists are.
     
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  2. Esperance

    Esperance Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Simple rebuttal that is based on actual current scientific data:

    1. Water vapor is, by far, the most abundant greenhouse gas.
    2. The earth is currently experiencing a high volume of water vapor circulation in both the middle and upper atmosphere.
    3. The level of water vapor in the atmosphere is both reflecting and absorbing solar activity that is being captured in real-time. (https://dods.ndbc.noaa.gov/oceansites/)
    4. Because of the current levels of water vapor in the atmosphere, the oceans are not absorbing as much heat and have actually been cooling for several years now per data from the ARGO project. (http://www.argo.net/)

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/greenhouse-gases.php?section=watervapor
    A significant quote from this water vapor site...
    "As water vapor increases in the atmosphere, more of it will eventually also condense into clouds, which are more able to reflect incoming solar radiation (thus allowing less energy to reach the Earth's surface and heat it up)."


    Humans are not responsible for the current cooling trend that is impacting the planet.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
  3. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    I don't see any statement of conclusion that supports your claims at either of the sites you posted.
     
  4. Chronocide Fiend

    Chronocide Fiend Active Member

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    One of your central points was addressed in 1938, I believe. The spectrum of CO2 absorbance was once thought to be identical to that of water vapor. Then, about 80 years ago, Guy Stewart Callendar showed that this was not the case. So much for “current scientific data.” What you are likely referring to is positive feedback from increased water vapor resulting from CO2 induced warming.
     
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  5. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    Let's remember that 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 are the 4 warmest years on record, with 2014 being the coolest of those.

    So, I'm just going to have to ask questions about this idea that there is a cooling trend.
     
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  6. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Warmer by which dataset? Warmer by a thousands degree?
     
  7. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Except that 1/5 of climate change is down to deforestation and a large part of that is deforestation of the Amazon......
     
  8. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    But there is always a REASOn for change and what is the current reason if not us burning 90 million barrels of oil per day?
     
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  9. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

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    You missed the context of the discussion.

    I meant warmer in the sense of NOT COOLER.
     
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  10. Esperance

    Esperance Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The water vapor accounts for over 97% of the greenhouse gas volume within the atmosphere.
    CO2 is roughly 2% at best in highly concentrated industrial zones.

    Cumulative human emissions have not had any more impact on the temperature of the atmosphere than that of a large active volcano.

    http://notrickszone.com/2017/05/06/...surface-cooling-growing-arctic-ice-thickness/

    The climate models were all constructed with zero sum baselines. Global cooling is increasing.
     
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  11. T_K_Richards

    T_K_Richards Well-Known Member

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    1. We don't know how quickly temperatures will rise. Temp.s appear to be rising about 20 times faster than they have previously. In the past 100 years we have seen a rise of .7 C.

    2. We don't know exactly how temp. rise will impact sea level. Estimates range, but some predictions are as high as 6 meters of sea level rise for 1 degree C. That would be devastating obviously. It is likely that we won't know exactly how much sea levels are going to rise because it will take time for the ice caps to melt.
     
  12. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    The climate has always change and always will

    The debatevis over the cause of climate change and whether we should wreck America’s way of life trying to change Mother Nature
     
  13. SiNNiK

    SiNNiK Well-Known Member

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    The current climate change event started 20,000 years ago back when the US was under a mile or more of ice.
     
  14. garyd

    garyd Well-Known Member

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    And there in lies the problem you might never get cancer. Not everyone who smokes does.
     
  15. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    How do you know the green house gases are coming from cars and planes? Correlation does not equal causation.
     
  16. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Actually a warmest year is irrelevant except for a headline. Stirs up those that know little about this other than what they are told.
     
  17. Russ103

    Russ103 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oil is the lifeblood of our advancement, embrace it.

    Or, walk/ride a bicycle and live in a tent without using any creature comforts/technology that makes your life easier. I have no problem with you doing that. It’s when you tell me and everyone else how to live our lives that I brush you off.
     
  18. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    .So many right wing Americans seem unaware that the world is moving on and changing and leaving them behind

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-...-trade-tensions-reshape-auto-industry/9697974
     
  19. spiritgide

    spiritgide Well-Known Member Donor

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    That is true, but there was little demand from the general public
    And I don't know of anyone who disagrees with the concept of stopping Amazon deforestation, other than the people actually doing it, most of whom are Brazilian natives. We have numerous efforts trying to educate those people and provide alternatives.
     
  20. Russ103

    Russ103 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  21. Chronocide Fiend

    Chronocide Fiend Active Member

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    I’m explaining why this argument was tossed out about 80 years ago. By the time Callendar concluded his research, he had established that there were certain wavelengths of infrared that were absorbed by CO2 but not water vapor in the atmosphere. He also pointed out that there was very little water vapor at higher altitudes, so CO2 contributed significantly to the greenhouse effect in the upper atmosphere. This is a large part of why global warming was revived by the latter half of the 20th century.

    https://www.encyclopedia.com/science/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/callendar-guy-stewart.

    As for the earth cooling, this is utter fantasy. China and Russia are already making plans for resource hunting and shipping in the arctic. Literally the entire world sees that this is happening. As for your graphs, I notice your link mentions “the unfalsified data.” I’m guessing by that they mean they took out all the adjustments for things like different types of measuring equipment, different times of day, etc: that would actually make the data meaningful. Am I right? I know how climate conspiracy folks like to confuse basic data analysis with fabrication.

    https://www.google.com/amp/foreignp...ilk-road-arctic-northern-sea-route-yamal/amp/
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2018
  22. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Of course, to some degree. The difference is that I embrace climate change. You fear it.
     
  23. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Coal powered cars are getting popular? Coal powered cars aren't even available.
     
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  24. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    The ocean has been warming for decades per ARGO.

    http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/global_change_analysis.html

    [​IMG]

    And while WV is a potent greenhouse gas it cannot, by itself, catalyze an increase in temperature. It certainly amplifies the increase when another process kick starts the increase, but it does not force the change by itself. The reason is because when measured over large spatial and temporal scales WV is in a stable equilibrium with the temperature. Any perturbations that force the WV-to-T ratio higher/lower will necessarily put a downward/upward force on the future WV flux. This is actually really intuitive because if it weren't the case then something as trivial as a hyperactive tropical cyclone could kick start a runaway greenhouse effect. But thankfully in the billion years in which this hypothetical runaway effect could have happened it never actually did.

    The Earth is currently experiencing a decades long secular warming event according to each and all datasets available. The rate of warming of the last 60 years is 0.15C/decade, over the last 40 years is 0.18C/decade, and over last 20 years is 0.20C/decade.

    [​IMG]
     
  25. Russ103

    Russ103 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Can you please tell us where (the vast majority) electricity comes from? Once you figure that out, revisit what I said.
     

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