Another Day, Another Extreme Hurricane

Hurricane Maria has just devastated Puerto Rico. Again, we can't say that Anthropogenic Global Warming caused the hurricane. But we can say that the probability of developing hurricanes increases if the air temperature and water temperature are higher. We can also say that a hurricane can be worse than it otherwise might have been, for these same reasons.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico-braces-065831707.html

 

Which explains the last 12 years of warm gulf waters and very few hurricanes how?

 

Did you forget about Hurricane Sandy in 2012? It developed in the warmer Atlantic waters. It was 900 miles wide. Compare that to Katrina, which was only 300 miles wide.

The locations of hurricanes and whether or not they reach land is all somewhat by chance. There have been plenty of hurricanes in the last 12 years, named alphabetically, even if they don't hit land. I stand by statement - "We can say that the probability of developing hurricanes increases if the air temperature and water temperature are higher. We can also say that a hurricane can be worse than it otherwise might have been, for these same reasons."

Are you disagreeing with this statement?

 

Yeah, especially during the past two seasons when the air and water temperatures were unusually low, as evidenced by minimal hurricane activity

 

Sandy wasn't a hurricane by the time it came onshore. The damage was caused by the sheer timing of the storm hitting the area at high tide.

 

As mentioned, hurricanes reaching land are just by chance. And NO, water temperatures aren't lower.

 

Your point?

 

But higher Temps means more hurricanes.
The corollary isn't true?

 

What? Gulf temperatures were higher? Why no hurricane landfalls for 12 years then?

 

Had nothing to do with air temperature or water temperature being higher. The full moon and a high pressure system over Canada had more to do with that storm than air or water temperature being higher.

 

As I said the last 12 years had very little hurricane activity and Sandy was one of very very few. Also the last 12 years prove there's much more to hurricane strength and frequency than water temperature. It's just like C02 and the AGW hypothesis. If you base predictions of climate or hurricanes on one single cause instead of realizing it's a much more complicated picture you are engaged in a fools folly.

 

We've had 4 very dangerous hurricanes in the last month - Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria. Nobody remembers Jose, because it didn't come ashore anywhere. That's my point. Every year there were plenty of hurricanes. The Atlantic and Gulf waters are quite warm right now, feeding the hurricanes. This is the main reason we get hurricanes this time of year - because the waters are warmer. Add the AGW warming, and it just makes them that much more extreme. Capiche?

 

A hurricane during hurricane season who would guess that would happen? Crazy times we are living in.

 

Sandy was a relatively minor storm that hit an area that just wasnt prepared for it.

That would be like Chicago getting hit with a magnitude 5 earthquake. No big deal in LA where building a are built with earthquakes in mind. Total devastation in Chicago.

 

https://www.dosomething.org/us/facts/11-facts-about-hurricane-sandy

1. Sandy’s pure kinetic energy for storm surge and wave destruction potential reached a 5.8 out of 6 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s scale.
2. The total death toll reached 285, including at least 125 deaths in the United States.e hurricane caused close to $62 billion in damage in the United States and at least $315 million in the Caribbean.
3. Hurricane Sandy is the nation’s most expensive storm since Hurricane Katrina, which caused $128 billion in damage.
4. New York was most severely impacted due to damage to subways and roadway tunnels.
5. In New York and New Jersey, storm surges were 14 ft above the average low tide.
   
6. At the height of the storm, over 7.5 million people were without powe

 

None of this contradicts the fact that this was a large but only Cat. 2 hurricane. If this happens to Florida or the Gulf coast, it's just another hurricane.

 

As I said the last 12 years had very little hurricane activity and Sandy was one of very very few. Also the last 12 years prove there's much more to hurricane strength and frequency than water temperature. It's just like C02 and the AGW hypothesis. If you base predictions of climate or hurricanes on one single cause instead of realizing it's a much more complicated picture you are engaged in a fools folly.

In theory yes, warmer waters make hurricanes more extreme but in the real world water temperature is just one of many factors effecting hurricane strength and can and is often negated by these other factors as the last 12 years that had warm water and minimum hurricane intensity and frequency prove. Again this is or should be a lesson for the AGW crowd that puts all it's eggs in the C02 basket.

 

Wait. Isn't that just "weather", just a local event, and not climate? That's what the AGW fanatics say when the "weather" does not support their AGW claims. Odd how the AGW crowd claims some "weather" supports AGW and other "weather" is irrelevant.

 

Actually, NO, I agree that many other factors cause hurricanes, and affect hurricane intensity. Primarily, the warmer water temperatures from summer weather. That's the main reason this is hurricane season.

The actual numbers from IPCC models are between 2% and 11% increase in hurricane intensity by the end of the 21st century. Assuming a linear relationship, we are 17% of the way to the end of the century. So currently our increase in hurricane intensity would stand between 0.34% and 1.87%. Rainfall rates associated with hurricanes will increase by 10-15% by the end of the century, which puts us currently at 1.7% to 2.6%.

There are two ways to look at this data. First, one can say the percentages are small. However, using a modest 2% for argument's sake, a 24-hour storm, with flooding, could be extended for another 30 minutes. A lot can happen in that 30 minutes. A dam could give way. Another neighborhood could flood. Water could penetrate an area of electrical equipment. Somebody could be killed in that 30 minutes. When one is the midst of a disaster, 30 minutes is a long time. And that 30 minutes will be more than 60 minutes, for our next generation, and about 100 minutes for the generation after that.

LINK
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.

There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.

Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center.

 

I would suggest you go back and read my first post in this thread. Oh, I'll save you the trouble. Here's what I said:

Hurricane Maria has just devastated Puerto Rico. Again, we can't say that Anthropogenic Global Warming caused the hurricane. But we can say that the probability of developing hurricanes increases if the air temperature and water temperature are higher. We can also say that a hurricane can be worse than it otherwise might have been, for these same reasons.

 

Gish gallop is a waste of everybody's time especially mine.

 

Global temperatures absolutely effect weather patterns, and are in fact the primary factor in them. Warmer atmosphere contains more water vapor and warmer air creates more wind ( actually warm next to colder) and when the two combine storms are more intense. As the planet warms there will quite obviously be larger a more frequent weather variations. I do not know if this hurricane season is a result of this, but it is expected.

 

According to the NOAA, they can't say for certain if there will be more hurricanes from AGW. There is more certainty, especially in the future, that hurricanes will be more intense due to AGW, by 2-11% by the end of the 21st century. There is even more certainty that hurricanes will contain more water, by 10-15%, by the end of the century. It's well established that we are already seeing more associated water. This is all based on the models, which have been shown to be remarkably accurate thus far.

 

None of this actually matters regardless for the simple fact we human will not and cannot do much beyond preparation for the inevitable. We could halt all emission today (which we cannot do) and the additions to the atmosphere already up there will keep doing their thing for many decades.
I also believe a tipping point was reached years ago that will lead to increased ice melt and eventual release of vast Methane deposits in both Ocean ice sediments and permafrost.

Basically it is already too late.

 

WOW! That's amazing seeing gas trapped under the ice, go up in flames so easily. Yeah, I agree it's too late. At this point, I think it's just about attempting to minimize the effect for future generations. I built a zero-energy home. Here's a few pics:


It's really cool, living in it. I've also helped a few friends build similar homes. Not a total solution, but a good start. We've shown the home to thousands, and it seems to have a great impact.