As expected, China is not cooperating

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Sandy Shanks, Jun 21, 2017.

  1. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Explain to me what the Paris Accord and the clean energy industry and China's role in both has to do with this thread.
     
  2. Concord

    Concord Well-Known Member

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    Uh, why?

    It's the only realistic long-term reality of the Korean peninsula. Eventually some half-sane individual will come to power in the North, be it through a coup or luck, and the peninsula will unify.

    When it does the South will be politically and economically dominant, and they will get along just fine with the Chinese.
     
  3. Liberty4Ransom

    Liberty4Ransom Banned

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    Ya, your problem is you assume to much. Next, you have no clue what you're talking about. The only viable option thru to N. Korea is China, period. If China chooses not persuade fat boy to tone it down, then there's nothing short of War that we can do. And, unless North Korea strikes south, nothing's going to happen period, except every one sits on edge while the North saber rattles. Since you're a complete partisan hack, you're going to ding Trump no matter what he does, even thought like every president before him since Ike, has has to deal with North Korea with simmilar results.
     
  4. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Then, how exactly would we defeat N.K.? How would we prevent N.K. overrunning S.K.? By air alone? That is not possible. By way of comparison, in WW2 there were about 2 million tons of bombs dropped. In Vietnam there were about 7 million tons dropped. We still lost.

    Because N.K. wants its nukes and the ability to hit the U.S. In their minds, that earns them respect. As it stands now, N.K. won't cooperate with China if China is telling them to ditch the nukes. How much pressure would China put on its ally? Who knows.

    Finally some word out of China from its government. The article is dated yesterday. Thank you, Seth, for the update. That development is very important.

    I just hope China isn't giving lip service to its "diplomatic responsibilities" as defined by Tillerson. I am somewhat suspicious of Chinese intentions. I hope I'm wrong.
     
  5. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    That sounds like a very nice theory. So far it has happened in the 70-year history of North Korea.
     
  6. Concord

    Concord Well-Known Member

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    70 years is not a long time. It's been about 26 years since the end of the Cold War, and of the South Korean-Chinese relationship improving while the North Korean-Chinese relationship sours.

    Kimmies recently assassinated half-brother had close links to the Chinese. What does this suggest to you?
     
  7. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sandy, I think how much pressure China puts on NK is probably dependent on how much impetus the Chinese have. And how much impetus they were given by the Trump administration is, of course, unknown to me. I wish I knew what Trump, Tillerson, and Mattis have been saying to them. But clearly, they told them something, and it appears that the Chinese have stood up and taken notice. I wonder what was said to make them do that.

    Another development happened about two months ago, and that was the White House briefing on NK given to the Senate. Although nothing has happened yet, I thought that was an ominous development. I think it speaks to how serious this administration is about the nuclear threat posed by NK. I think it belies that they are determined to do something about it.

    My belief is that this situation is very serious. This is a can that has been kicked down the road for a couple of decades at least, but now, as NK gets closer and closer to nuclear ICBM capability, the can may not be kicked down the road anymore. We're rapidly running out of road.

    You asked how we could defeat NK and how we could prevent NK from overrunning SK. I agree with you that dropping conventional bombs from jets would not work. I'll get to that.

    The key to a peaceful solution is China. There are three approaches China could take to end NK's nuclear program, one peaceful, one less peaceful, and one using force.

    (1) They could starve NK. They could simply end all trade with NK. This could be done incrementally to inflict as little suffering on the NK people as possible. Conceivably, using this option, China could force an end to NK's nuclear program without forcing a regime change. Or, they could do this and ....
    (2) They could foment a coup in NK. The Chinese have contacts in the NK government and military I assume. Secretly, they could let it be known that they desire a change in leadership, and that they stand ready to quickly recognize a new government that is willing to take the country in a new direction.
    (3) The Chinese could use their military and move on NK and force regime change. This would be the riskiest and least desirable of their options, but, if they were willing to accept our help, we could help them establish air superiority.

    In all of the above scenarios, no SK or US troops would enter NK, and NK could remain a communist country and under the sphere of influence of China. China's aim would be make NK more like themselves, and, above all, a peaceful and prosperous nation.

    Now why should China do this? What could our government tell the Chinese that would spur them into action? I don't know what they were told, but I know what I would tell them. In a private conversation with their leader, I would tell them these things ...

    (1) The US desires peace and security for all. The US does not covet one square inch of NK territory. The US has no intention to remove NK from China's sphere of influence. The US desires that China use any and all means available to them to end the NK nuclear threat. However, if China fails to do that ...
    (2) The US will not live under a NK nuclear shadow. That outcome is off the table, and it will not happen. The US will go to war if necessary to prevent that from happening. This is likely to happen in the near future.
    (3) The US assesses that a conventional air and ground war against NK would be too costly in terms of military and civilian casualties and in terms of the level of destruction likely to be wrought upon our ally, SK. Therefore, our only remaining option is a preemptive nuclear strike upon NK with the intention of rendering NK incapable of striking back significantly.

    I do not say that lightly or cavalierly. I believe #3 above is logical and would have the net effect of saving lives when compared with the terrible human losses of an extended conventional war.

    So I wonder what Trump and team have told the Chinese, and I wonder which elements, if any, they may have told them that I just discussed.


    I too am suspicious of Chinese intentions. I hope the Chinese will take the bull by horns and actually do something good. If they wish to be thought of as a great nation, then occasionally they must do great things. This is their chance. I hope they act and the US is not forced to do anything. Time will tell.

    Seth
     
  8. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    Their is no "other words" about it. I want to know how you seem to know so much about the inner workings of the Chinese Communist party.

    I am willing to wager you can't name more than one Chinese political leader, yet you know that these nameless leaders are "laughing" at Trump.

    I too, know very little about Chinese politics and politicians. But I do know they are very secretive, reveal little to the outside world and are serious, very serious men.

    They do not laugh when American warships station themselves close to their shores and threaten their neighbor. The CPC is not monolithic but is divided into factions some of which advocate a hard line with the US and others that are more flexible. The inner deliberations between these factions are not publicly available but sometimes surface in party controlled newspapers, like the one I quoted.

    Further I know that China is rife with corruption. Government controlled companies can, with the connivance of local party leaders, thumb their noses at sanctions declared in Beijing.

    Now, I know that you are not trying to pass yourself off as any sort of "China watcher" but are just trying to twist the news in a novel way to insult our President. This will win you the appreciation of other liberals who are always interested in new ways to demean Trump.

    Myself, I along with the CPC, consider the NK situation very serious and do not approve of your sort of frivolity.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2017
  9. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I completely oppose reunification of North and South Korea. Reunification of Germany saw an East German Russian agent (literally) Merkel become the leader of Germany, whereupon she surrendered Germany to the Empire of Islam and is steadfastly turning Germany into an anti-American, pro-Russian socialist nation.

    The same would happen if Korea was unified relative to China. A unified Korea would be anti-American, pro-Chinese and would increasingly become a socialistic country.
     
  10. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There would be no reason to occupy N. Korea or invade it. The problem with N. Korea could easily dealt with.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2017
  11. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is no reason for China to do anything in relation to N. Korea. It is foolish to think otherwise. N. Korea's constant threats against Japan, S. Korea and the USA all serve China's interests in the region. China is going to do nothing.
     
  12. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Foreign policy is not about how nice a country seems to the rest of the world. That was an extra stupid theory Obama and many others before him believed. Foreign policy is only about national interests and power, nothing else.
     
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  13. Mircea

    Mircea Well-Known Member

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    Regime change is the only effective way to ensure North Korea's nuclear weapons program is destroyed, and that will require US Forces to be on the ground.
     
  14. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    It is a question of degree. It will be a long time before South Koreans forget the Chinese invasion of their homeland. S.K. new President wants better relations with China for good reason. That doesn't mean S.K. will join China's sphere of influence and toss out American troops. The new President didn't want the Thaad system because it makes S.K. a target.

    We are talking trade deals here and better relations, not a new alliance.

    That I need more information of the brother's ties to China before offering an opinion. I heard he wasn't much interested in governance and that was why he was passed over. He was N.K.'s version of a playboy. How true all that is, is anyone's guess.
     
  15. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Possible clue: Without the American market, China's economy would be in serious trouble.

    True, but that is no reason to start a preemptive war. Mattis considers such a war to be catastrophic. It would be. We would win, of course, but it could well be pyrrhic victory.

    All after that statement was brilliant.
     
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  16. Concord

    Concord Well-Known Member

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    Who cares about words like "alliance"? They're not going to ally with the Chinese against the Americans, they're going to have good relations with both. Of all the peoples in the Pacific they're the most inclined to get along with the Chinese.

    That's correct, he was a playboy and his father suspected that he harbored Western sympathies. The Chinese were protecting him (he was most often spotted in China), and it's not hard to figure out why. His existence was a threat to the legitimacy of Kimmies reign, a modern day pretender to the throne. It was a good bit of leverage the Chinese had over NK.
     
  17. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    Quit being an idiot. I know what the Chinese government is not saying to the media.

    If you were reading along instead of trying to make a fool of yourself, that changed with a June 24 article provided by another poster. It said the Chinese government endorsed the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

    But you probably missed that.

    As far Trump is concerned, all I stated were the facts, none of which have you disputed. You are too busy with your personal attacks, a tactic used often by Trump fans.

    I wonder why. Instead of questioning comments critical of Trump, instead of defending Trump, his fans use personal attacks. That says a lot about the intelligence level of both Trump and his fans.
     
  18. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    You may well be right.
     
  19. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    I agree, along with Vietnam. And again, for good reason. With China practically next door, you don't want her as an enemy, and you don't want to be her target, meaning Thaad.

    That coincides with my knowledge of the brother.
     
  20. Concord

    Concord Well-Known Member

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    What? No, the Vietnamese are on the frontlines against the Chinese. They are perhaps the most anti-Chinese people in the Pacific. The country most likely to get into a conflict over the South China Sea is Vietnam, and they have certainly been the most aggressive in forming a web of alliances in the region to counter Chinese strength.

    http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/24/country/239/

    Use that to flip around. The Vietnamese have a super favorable view of the US, and a super unfavorable view of China. Inexplicably, they love us.

    The South Koreans love us too, but they don't hate the Chinese as much as the Vietnamese do. In fact, they don't hate the Chinese at all.

    The two countries have very different views of their history and it's relation to the Chinese.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2017
  21. Thought Criminal

    Thought Criminal Well-Known Member Donor

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    Regarding US troops:

    "North Korea is doing all it can to keep American troops away from the Yalu River, the border between N.K. and China. Why would China want to interfere with that effort?"

    Without a threat from North Korea, there would be no need of massed US troops anywhere near China. Surely China understands this. Yes, the US would keep a token force there for symbolic purposes.

    I think that China just likes having an unpredictable, highly dangerous ally there causing concern and preoccupying the attentions of potential threats.
     
  22. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Right. The two countries' economies are married to each other. From my perspective, it would be idiotic to disrupt the relationship between the two countries over NK. I hope the message our government has given to the Chinese is that they can have NK, but NK must be transformed into a sane, peaceful, non-threatening nation.

    I see a preemptive war as a last resort, but NK with nuclear ICBMs is out of the question. Mattis is a good man, and I have a lot of confidence in him. This man knows all too well what war means, and I believe that he is a man who seeks peace. He is a warrior who will defend the US to the hilt, but who does not seek war.

    Thank you.
     
  23. TomFitz

    TomFitz Well-Known Member

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    I don't know what planet you're living on, but that was some prime grade nonsense.

    China gives up nothing if its relationship with the US declines, as it has been.

    No fear like that has prevented them from upping their game in the South China Sea, and they've always used their North Korean client state as a cat's paw against the Americans, South Korea, Japan and Tiawan.

    Trump made it even easier for them when he gave Beijing a spontaneous free gift. He repudiated the Trans Pacific Partnership, thereby ceding American leadership in financing the growing economies of Southeast Asia, to the Chinese, who have wasted not time at all, in forming multilateral trade deals throughout the region. Deals that put American business at a disadvantage.

    Then there's One Road, One Belt, a policy that is as blatant a declaration of Chinese ambitions as there ever was.

    I doubt that the Clown Prince even knows what that is.

    I am not aware of any rapproachment between South Korea and China, as you claim. But one may be formed out of necessity as the Americans withdraw from their role as world leaders.

    "And putting American troops on the Yalu river would not be significantly different from having them where they are now."

    Yes, that's what Macarthur thought in 1950, too. We all know how that turned out.
     
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  24. TomFitz

    TomFitz Well-Known Member

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    China cancelled plans to build 100 coal fired power plants, and is now the world leader in solar panel production.

    So what was your point??????
     
  25. TomFitz

    TomFitz Well-Known Member

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    What makes you think that the Chinese care whether they have our permission to have North Korea as a client state????

    It hasn't mattered to them since 1949.
     

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