Britain crashing out of the EU (Brexit with no EU deal).

Interesting, it looks like the DUP has more in common with Catholic Ireland than the rest of the UK when it comes to the issue of abortion.

 

That would be called 'Cherry Picking' and is something the UK proposed once for Brexit for the entire UK.
So the only way now is no deal or no Brexit.


EU doesn't like to separate these things, it's like all or nothing. Which, to be honest, stops other countries from following Britain out of the door.

You have to understand, if EU gave UK a better deal, then the whole of the EU27 would want that for themselves and think if UK got a better deal for leaving the EU, maybe they should too, so the EU have to spite the UK to save itself.

 

That's what I thought, but what if they just gave Northern Ireland a better deal? Surely Northern Ireland is a much smaller place and it wouldn't matter as much (although it might still set a precedent they don't want to set).

 

Yep ... lttle Tommy deals with Uncle Sam and will be rolled over by him ... that is what will happen.
And that is right the great point why the EU exists ... because each of the member states alone have no chance in negotiations with US ... but as one community, they are in a bigger position as the US and the tables are reversed against the US in such issues ... and that is why Trump hates the EU, because they have in exconomic more power!

EU punish poor UK? Looooool!
Evil UK wanted to make impudent cherry picking in negotiatiosn and failed and now they get the consequences for their own stupidity.

 

From the American perspective, things in the UK really aren't so different from the EU. The EU is just being like what the UK is but taking it a notch up. That's too much for even the UK.

At some point too much government control is going to be antithetical to individual liberties and economic prosperity. Like the Soviet Union, if one can draw the analogy. But for those who believe government is the solution for every problem in society, they can see no problem.

One phenomena the EU states may learn is that larger governments are harder to properly manage than smaller ones.

 

It's a bloc mentality much like the USSR.
No democracy and it fears America coupled with equality over fairness.
It won't give UK or any part of the UK a better deal, its solution is to annex Northern Ireland under EU rule (not forever) and Northern Ireland don't want this and have the power stop this.

 

By the way, if the EU had set a better example over all these years and not been dysfunctional, Norway, and maybe even Switzerland, might have decided to join at some point. But now they're going to stay the hell away for good. And even Sweden, as much as they love the EU, is probably going to hold out adopting the Euro and delay merging their monetary system forever, after the debt crisis and all the following bailouts, which were virtually a scandal, with the spectre of more to come in the future.

 

We could start a separate thread on why Poland is reluctant to want to adopt the Euro, a subject I do not understand very well.

It seems that Poles are not so sure the fate of the EU and want to wait it out a little bit to see where it is going. The debt crisis also put them off and made them want to play it more cautiously.

However they definitely want the trade and economic benefits from Western Europe, and although their economy has been growing at a rapid rate, they are still at a somewhat lower standard of living than Western Europe.
Perhaps a lower standard of living makes a population less optimistic and more cautious.

There are already a large number of Poles living abroad in other EU countries sending remittance money back, so maybe Poland's economy already has all the Euro currency it needs to sustain trade with other EU countries.​

 

I wonder if there might be some particular conditions Northern Ireland might be willing to accept temporary EU rule?
Nothing to do with economics or trade. A guarantee that they will still be militarily ruled by the UK, but the EU will decide regulations.
And a guarantee perhaps that the EU will not interfere with their abortion laws.

I'm not sure on what the particular grounds are Northern Ireland doesn't want to join the EU.

 

Looks like the situation is a bit more complicated:

Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU in the June 2016 Brexit referendum, with 56 percent of the vote. Those who identified as nationalists overwhelmingly supported Remain, and but only about a third of unionists did so. Turnout was also the lowest in Northern Ireland — just 62 percent — compared to the rest of the UK.
​

https://www.vox.com/world/2019/2/18/18204269/brexit-irish-border-backstop-explained

So a slight majority in Northern Ireland would prefer to stay in the EU, but it's still pretty divided, and probably a lot of the people in Northern Ireland are pretty divided about the issue themselves and didn't bother to vote. (The people in Northern Ireland would otherwise have a pretty high voter turnout rate for these sort of things)

There are no easy answers, whatever happens is going to leave a lot of people unhappy.

 

It's Northern Ireland wanting to be treated the same as the rest of the United Kingdom.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46903876
I think it's about letting them feel like their country's not abandoning them during Brexit.
They don't want to be severed from the UK and want the same Brexit as the rest of us because they hate being broken up from Britain and even though Northern Ireland like London (where I am) voted to remain, the whole of the UK (as a whole) voted to leave and has Brexit now which Northern Ireland doesn't want to miss out on and feel it's no acceptable to separate them from the rest of the UK, that's why they're not supporting the deal the EU and the PM made with the backstop for Northern Ireland temporarily remaining in the EU.

 

Personally I feel the best solution might just be for the EU countries to take a less hardline approach and be more cautious about passing regulations that will be off-putting to the UK. Then for the UK to just accept the EU regulations, but maybe not free movement of people.
This would necessitate active compromise, which unfortunately may not be too likely since it would have to come from conscientious thought on the part of all the EU members.

 

I think that's an overly simplistic view of the situation.

They obviously don't want to be treated the same when it comes to abortion (as just one example).

I could be wrong but I get more of the impression they just want things their way.

 

They're UK, it really is about them not wanting to be separate and treated different and stuck in the EU.
It's about sovereignty. They feel the EU are trying to annex them and drive a border between them and the rest of the UK, and they don't want a border between them and the rest of the UK.

 

Why don't they want to be in the EU? (more specifically)

 

They don't see it as that.


They see it as... If they stayed in the EU, they'd be separate from the rest of the UK.

Seems they're UK first, EU second, otherwise, the PM and the EU would have had their deal.

 

It just seems too simplistic and metaphysical for me to believe that.

Remaining militarily and sovereignly part of the UK would not be enough, you're saying they want to be just like how the UK is in other ways, with the UK governing all their regulations exactly how it is in every other part of the UK?

That sounds like it really has to do with some extreme sense of National Identity.

What I mean is, surely the Unionists are not unionists only for the sake of wanting this abstract concept of staying part of the union?
There's got to be more to it than that, such as political considerations, economic considerations, social considerations.

 

You have to understand Northern Ireland's Ulster fraction that is doing this...

They love being in the UK, couldn't get rid of them if we wanted to because they don't want it.
These are a people who being a part of the UK is something that matters to them.
The EU suggested annexing Northern Ireland and creating a border down the Irish Sea to separate Northern Ireland from the UK keeping Northern Ireland in the EU regulations, and Northern Ireland haven't supported any deal supporting that pleading for the Northern Irish backstop to be taken out so they don't get separated from the UK.
For a place with no money or military might or anything going for it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46903876

 

I see, it looks like they're afraid having Northern Ireland be designated as special status zone and being treated any different from the rest of the UK could be the first step towards eventually being pushed out of the UK someday.

(And then of course they could come under pressure to be merged with the rest of Ireland, calling back to mind all those old tensions)

So in a way, this whole Irish backstop affair is just a replay of the old Irish conflict ultimately going back to the early 1900s.

Viewed from that perspective, it seems a wall may be unavoidable then.
But the irony is it will be regular Ireland who will have to build it, to be in compliance with EU regulations.

Is the EU really going to force Ireland to build a wall with all that past history there? Ireland is going to be very resentful about this.

No doubt the Unionists in Northern Ireland will be happy to see a wall go up.

 

Norway and Switzerland are quite bad examples, they have to follow all EU regulations and they pay into the EU budget while having no voting right. The UK could have had the Norway deal 2 years ago without any further negotiations.

The UK wanted to have full control of their borders and now they will have two additional borders to control, Gibraltar and Ireland. WTO rules also require a controlled border.

Nobody wants to build a wall, just ordinary custom checks. The RoI has the finaly say in the Irish question, like Spain in the Gibraltar issue.

 

In the case of Gibraltar, is it possible a special exception might be made for them? It would really be quite impractical being cut off from the rest of Spain.

If it was turned into a special zone and they followed all EU regulations, would they be allowed to remain in the trade zone?

Maybe have the same type of border checkpoint for Britains travelling to Gibraltar as exists for Britains entering the EU.

 

I've been seeing this mentioned often over the last week or so. I know UK and Germany were the only stable economies in Europe. Will UK leaving put the UK economy in that much peril?

 

sure if the thugish EU imposes trade penalties on UK to discourage others from leaving.

 

I misspoke.

Will the UK put the EU economy in that much peril?

 

Germany faces a conundrum. It needs to export its manufactured goods (mostly automotive) to other markets in Europe. At the same time, all the other countries in Europe are poorer (to a greater or lesser extent) than Germany, and being part of that union drags Germany down to some extent, as the Germans have to subsidize the other countries at some level.

Someone more cynical might point out that German taxpayers are being made to subsidize German industry, in a way.
(maybe not that surprising)

With the UK going, it will have a moderately big effect on the stability of this arrangement. Probably a greater burden is going to be shifted onto Germany.

As for the UK economy, this will mostly inconvenience them and make prices go up a bit. It might be good for UK farmers. It will likely result in a big tax on consumer goods, because of tariff barriers, because there are a lot of things the UK imports from Europe and Europe imports from the UK.

Banks and financiers in London are concerned because it's going to reduce their ease of access to investments on the Continent and probably result in higher taxes for them.

Probably the biggest detriment to the UK's economy will be the period of adjustment. We might even see factories begin appearing in the UK to produce domestic goods, or the UK turning to alternate supply lines in America and Asia.