Britain crashing out of the EU (Brexit with no EU deal).

An exception would be possible but that would be like the backstop for Northern Ireland which is heavily opposed in the UK.

The UK and Germany aren't the only stable economies in the EU.

Germany isn't the richest country in the EU, it has the highest GDP but per capita other countries are more wealthy. Is there any country where the taxpayer doesn't subsidize the industry?

Germany will pay more.

Trade isn't the problem but after more than 40 years the UK economy is highly integrated into the EU economy and that will cause some real pain. The UK is part of a few hundred treaties based on their EU membership and they all will end if there is a hard Brexit. So far the UK government has only renogetiated a very small part of it.

 

Well of course, but those two are the bulwarks of stability in the EU.

Because they fear it could be the first step down the slippery slope of separation, I presume.
Northern Ireland fears the UK abandoning them and getting absorbed by Ireland, while Gibraltar fears being abandoned by the UK and getting annexed by Spain.

I do wonder though if the political and economic situation could become so untenable in the UK someday that Northern Ireland and Gibraltar might reevaluate their attitudes and decide staying in the UK may not be that attractive. (Although that's not likely because however bad the UK gets politically, the EU is likely to be worse)

The trade of course won't suddenly end, but there will be some steep tariff barriers that will make it costly and cut back and curtail a substantial portion of that trade.

As I've stated in a thread, taxes in the form of tariffs won't really be any more damaging to the economy than any other form of taxation.

It will probably take the UK economy 3 or 4 years to adapt, as industries develop new supply chains. ​

 

That's a problem which had been solved by the EU because it didn't matter in which country you live, threre were no borders.
I'm quite convinced that the EU will be a stable political entity in the future.

​

In 3 or 4 years there will be no British car industry left if a hard Brexit happens. The British car production is foreign owned and the vast majority of the produced cars are exported and without a preferred access to the EU market it will die fast. The Japanese companies are already shutting down and others will follow. BMW is prepared to move the Mini production to Germany, they have empty production halls ready and they just have to relocate the machines.

The US company my wife is working for are cutting down the UK production and ramping up the production in Poland. A lot of well payed white collar jobs, finances and hr, are moving to the Netherlands and Czechia.

Trade deals with other countries aren't that easy to negotiate and take quite a time. The UK will not get better deals than the EU. Japan has already refused to implement the EU-Japan trade deal for the UK and I can't expect a good offer from the Trump administration for the UK, America first. China has a good memory and they haven't forgotten the humiliations suffered from the British. India is expecting preferred migration rules for their people in exchange for a trade deal.

The UK will be desperate to make trade deals and everyone will know it and use it as a leverage.

 

Why do you say that? The British will just buy their own cars.

Yes, less consumer choice for everyone involved but things would still go on.
Anyway the British will have American markets.

 

Aston Martin and Lotus are the only British owned producers left and they don't produce cars in a significant number.
I don't expect a good trade deal from America, America first.

 

Exactly, 1000s of small businesses need the free access to the EU, their businesses have been built on it.
A hard Brexit would ruin them, closed doors and let go employees.
Same for all the mail order outfits, UK businesses built around e-bay or amazon, toast. ​

 

If the US slapped EU cars with harsh tariffs, that would be fair considering what EU does to American export.

 

The German car manufactures have the largest car factories in the US. Those factories are the largest exporter of cars made in the US.
Why has the Idiot in Chief not slapped the tariffs, he promised, onto German cars?
What US car built in the US do you want to export to Europe. 20liter per 100km, 5 to 7 liters motors and huge like tanks, no market for those in Europe, only in the USA.
Harley is a cult, but nothing more, a crappy cycle with huge sales problems in the US.

What is the US to export, besides Harley and Bourbon and military hard ware ?

Boeing 737 Max ?

 

UK can sell military hardware, no?

 

To the US ?
Are you kidding, absolutely no. Not even a uniform button, because China, Vietnam or India can do it for 1/20, despite tariffs.
The UK can't even built an aircraft for its aircraft carriers and has to buy a overpriced plane from the US, ten years late and with problems.

At least the "dismal" French, fly their own plane of their carriers.

Your car companies are in foreign hands, all of them.
What you have left in aircraft companies is owned by foreign companies.
Even your dismal rail system is run and managed by foreign companies from the EU.

Tell me what of your countries industry is truly in British hands, besides cottage manufacturing.

 

Rolls Royce builds jet engines, no?

 

Which is a company owned by foreigners and depends deeply on Air Bus.

 

I thought Boeing...

Guess Rolls Royce have their finger in both pies....

I find it amusing how you neglect American enterprises and think of European.
Newflash, the EU nor Europe is the world, and if Europe didn't have fascism or Nazis, then it'll be worth being a part of.

Just look at the mess that is Spain spreading Fascism to Latin America and closing the border with Gibraltar like it was Franco's time.

I'm wondering who won WWII with this EU.
History says it the allies, yet with the EU - it seems like the 4th Reich won it.

It's high time the EU had USA reality checks to deal with.
Ungrateful Euro-trash being harsh on America, WTF.

 

It is quiet simple, I am a US business man, started from 0 and acquired a comfi wealth. German.
I accomplished the so called US dream.
I know, even as a German more about the US than you will ever be able to get.
35 years

You live in a fantasy world about the US.

The US is the most brutal capitalistic country in the world.
Good if you fit in, I did, because I choose and were willing to work 7 days a week, 365 for over 30 years.
14 hours a day. With a dismal social security system, low pay and extremely high health insurance system.
The US is not out to give favors, its not in its system. Its not how it works domestically and will never work, because of it, in foreign affairs.
The US system is just for the strong, very strong and the rest gets left behind.
Your silly country, despite what Bolden and the Idiot in Chief tell you, are nothing but a token.
Owned by European Companies, mind you.

 

Well they wasted two years I would have worked on a new trade treaty between the UK, Commonwealth Nations, the United States and China to be an Option B so when they got here they could go you can make a fair deal EU or we are leaving banking on the new UK Trade Option B and use that to fill in the gaps in trade with the EU and any nations leaving the EU can join our new option and leave far easier than you bastards. France why not leave and join us as soon as we do just tell them to bugger off.

Then they would have leverage and have clout to negotiate with the EU from a position of some strength.

 

You seem to think German business matters, it doesn't, your country's too socialist and relies on the Schengen. If your country isn't financing a company to make it more competitive, it's exploiting the blood and sweat and labour of another weaker country. You wish Germany was like USA, but it's nothing without the EU and the EU will soon be down to 27, and who would remain in the bloc if the UK gets to be a country again? Do you think Italy is going to put up with your country's crap any longer?

 

The EU cried like a baby and asked the UK not to negotiate any new trade until we leave the EU.
I tell you, as soon as the UK gets out without a deal, it's on.

 

Death by a thousand cuts
The strategic outlook for the UK automotive industry beyond Brexit

A white paper released today by Matthias Holweg, automotive expert and Professor of Operations Management at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford details the damage that has been wrought on the UK’s car industry by the Brexit process. It finds that the industry has already lost 9% of its volume due to Brexit, and overall investment has dropped by 80% over the last three years.

In the event of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit, in which the UK would leave the European Union without any trade deal agreed, Professor Holweg estimates that the UK would lose a further 35% of its current production volume over the following decade.

Advocates for a customs union ‘compromise’ should think twice: according to Holweg, volume car production cannot be sustained under a WTO tariff regime, and a customs union would make UK plants less competitive. The resulting damage to skill and supply bases could also have further adverse effects on aerospace and defence manufacturing.

'The great and present danger is that the decisions on where to produce new models will continue to go against the UK, until existing plants here become sub-scale and thus uncompetitive, and will close,’ states Holweg. ‘This would invariably lead to a hollowing-out of the UK’s component supply chain, effectively condemning the automotive industry to a slow “death by a thousand cuts” … Whichever way one looks, it is hard to underestimate the threat Brexit represents to the future of UK manufacturing.'

Matthias Holweg is the American Standard Companies Professor of Operations Management at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. He has conducted extensive research into the competitiveness and dynamics of the global automotive industry and was part of the UK’s New Automotive Innovation and Growth Team that proposed the establishment of the Automotive Council UK in 2009, which he has been supporting ever since.

https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/news/death-thousand-cuts
https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2019-04/Strategic outlook for UK auto sector_white paper_09 April 2019.pdf

 

Why can't the UK sell cars to its own market? If cars made in Germany are going to start having trouble reaching the UK, obviously UK cars are going to fill the void, to a large extent.

And ultimately there is nothing to prevent the UK from striking up a trade deal with the US after this Brexit is all over and selling its cars to the American market.

 

There are no UK cars left just foreign owned production and new barriers coming from the Brexit will make them less profitable. Tariffs will kill the UK production, 54% of the parts for the UK production are imported, WTO rules will impose a 4,5% tariff and the exported cars to the EU will have a 10% tariff.

 

If it's foreign owned then most of those profits are not going to the UK, now are they?

Theoretically it would not be impossible to adapt.

 

650.000 people are working direct or indirect in the UK car production and losing 200.000 or 300.000 industry jobs will hurt for sure.

 

Now they'll have even more jobs making car parts, correct?