This article makes a good point. http://www.americanthinker.com/arti...ricane_but_global_warming_is_a_certainty.html Weather and climate are not the same. According to NASA, weather represents atmospheric conditions over a short period of time compared to climate which is measured over relatively long periods of time. Both however use computer models attempting to predict the future. As NOAAs Climate.gov website explains, Models help us to work through complicated problems and understand complex systems. Indeed. Weather and climate are incredibly complex, influenced by sea, air, land, and the sun. It is therefore no surprise that predicting the track of a hurricane, considered weather as it is short-term, is quite challenging. Below is a composite picture of multiple computer model predictions for tropical storm Joaquim, shortly before converting to a hurricane. Each line represents a different prediction based on a particular computer model. What is obvious is that there is no consensus, ..... The Weather Channel forecast below looks like a plate of spaghetti, with storm tracks aimed everywhere along the East coast, and some heading out to sea. So which is it? Where is the hurricane going to hit? Will Chris Christie be giving the president a man-hug next week? Will John Kerrys Nantucket beach house manse be swallowed by the storm surge? This will all unfold within the next week, not 30 or 50 or 100 years from now. Yet the computer models are all over the map. Literally. Yes, weather is different than climate, but both involve predictions based on computer models. Weather is happening tomorrow or next week. Climate is happening decades from now. If short term predictions are so difficult, why would long term predictions be easier? Yet climate change is certain, beyond doubt or question. President Obama and Pope Francis are in agreement that, we are living at a critical moment of history. How ironic that a hurricane, representing a clear and present danger to millions of people, is so unpredictable and thats OK. If I say Hurricane Joaquim will head out to sea, am I called a hurricane denier and threatened with prison? No thats reserved for those of us who challenge, not next weeks weather, but the climate a century from now. Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/arti...bal_warming_is_a_certainty.html#ixzz3nvklmuwe Follow us: [MENTION=68246]American[/MENTION]Thinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook Hurricanes are annual events, dozens of events every year, there is plenty of opportunity to test and refine their hurricane models. And they still don't get it right. In fact, forget hurricanes, the weather "experts" frequently cannot even predict rain on the correct day. But we are expected to roll over and accept climate models that have almost no testability, but do have a history of inaccuracy in their predictions. Climate "experts" and their groupies demand acceptance and threaten violence on those who question their claims. Predicting the weather is easier than predicting the climate. If the climate crowd can't do the easy stuff then they certainly can't do the hard stuff. Its time to laugh away the man caused global warming religion, at least until they can tell me if its going to rain tomorrow.
El Nino blowin' up a big `un... Mexico's Pacific Coast braces for monster Hurricane Patricia Oct 23,`15 -- Residents of a stretch of Mexico's Pacific Coast dotted with resorts and fishing villages boarded up homes and bought supplies ahead of Friday's arrival of Hurricane Patricia, a monster Category 5 storm that forecasters warned could be catastrophic.
Yemen braces for a powerful cyclone with hurricane force winds and life-threatening torrential rain... Yemen island hit as Cyclone Chapala heads for mainland 2 Nov.`15 - A rare tropical cyclone has hit the remote Yemeni island of Socotra, killing at least one person before heading towards the Yemeni mainland.
uncharted territory Cyclone Chapala in the Arabian Sea Likely to Be Rare, Destructive Landfall in Yemen Cyclone Chapala is headed for an extremely rare landfall at hurricane strength along the coast of war-torn Yemen late Monday or early Tuesday (mainland U.S. time). While wind damage will be a threat near the point of landfall, the bigger concern will be extremely heavy rainfall in a normally arid region, leading to life-threatening flash floods in a country already suffering a major humanitarian crisis stemming from years of violent conflict. http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/cyclone-chapala-yemen-oman-arabian-peninsula
Chapala to make landfall in Yemen as first hurricane-strength cyclone on record Cyclone Chapala is tracking west through the Arabian Sea, targeting Yemen as the first hurricane-strength storm to make landfall there since records began. While the storm’s winds will certainly pack a punch as the storm comes ashore in the early morning hours Tuesday, its rainfall may prove deadly — the cyclone is forecast to dump at least five years’ worth of rain over the mountains near the vulnerable port city of Al Mukalla. Chapala has benefited from extremely warm water in the Arabian Sea, maintaining its strength as the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane, after peaking as a strong Category 4 on Friday. The storm has generated more energy than any other tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea. Honing in on the southern Arabian Peninsula, Chapala is packing winds of 120 mph, with gusts up to 150 mph. Wave heights around the storm are 30 feet. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/02/chapala-to-make-landfall-in-yemen-as-first-hurricane-strength-cyclone-on-record/
After First Kills 8, Second Freak Storm Heads To Yemen... Second freak storm heads for Yemen, WMO says November 7, 2015 - A new tropical cyclone is heading for Yemen three days after a storm dumped several years' worth of rain on the port city of Mukalla, the U.N. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday.
possum helpin' Uncle Ferd batten down the hatches... Season Approaches: U.S. Hits Record 127 Months Since Major Hurricane Strike May 24, 2016 – With hurricane season set to start next week, Tuesday marks a record 127 months since a major hurricane has made landfall in the continental United States, according to statistics compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division, which keeps data on all the hurricanes that have struck the U.S. since 1851. See also: White House Declares May 23-27 'Extreme Heat Week' May 24, 2016 | As part of its efforts to address climate change the Obama administration has designated May 23-27, 2016, as Extreme Heat Week.
"The current drought in major hurricane activity" is not consistent with the fudge claiming record ocean temps.... Rather, the lack of canes and the growing Antarctic Sea Ice suggest the raw data showing precisely NO WARMING in the oceans is, well, not in need of "correction" (the warmer term for FUDGE)...
Record 139-Months w/o a major hurricane... Hurricane Season Starts--After Record 139-Month Major Hurricane Drought June 1, 2017 - The 2017 hurricane season begins today, June 1--a record 139 months after the last major hurricane made landfall in the continental United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
I've seen estimates ranging from 1-in-500 to 1-in-2000 as the yearly recurrence interval for a drought this long. Either way that is astonishing.
Track forecasting skill has been improving for decades. Refer to the NHC's forecast verification page here. High impact synoptic events are usually known about days in advance. Mesoscale events can still be challenging, but we're improving here too. Climate models are tested "ex post facto". That means they are initialized and ran from a point in time in the past and compared to real observations to measure their skill. They exhibit useful skill otherwise we wouldn't be running them. Our computer models are incredibly skillful at forecasting the weather. Don't believe me? See for yourself at the official forecast verification page here. Aside from that this statement isn't necessarily true. Weather forecasting skill drops off exponentially largely because of the chaos after about 8-10 days. But, weather forecasting is different than climate forecasting because we want to predict the exact conditions at an exact spot at an exact time. Climate forecasting is more about trends and averages over large spacial and temporal domains. These models are always ran as ensembles with many members perturbed in various ways and then averaged together at the end during post processing time. Like I said above these models exhibit skill ex post facto. This statement (from the original article) is wrong. Despite Joaquin being one of the most challenging hurricanes to forecast in years our forecast of it's track was actually pretty close all things considered. The chart referenced in the article needs to be interpreted by someone familiar with hurricane forecasting otherwise you will draw the wrong conclusions. Did you know, for example, that many of those lines in the chart aren't actually intended to be used for track forecasts? Depending on which variation you look at there are only about 3-6 lines that forecasters actually use to make an official forecast from 2 dozen or whatever that are actually shown.
I read some of your post and your links, but there is a lot there and your links require more than a cursory glance. So I'm just commenting on the above part of your post. Its very easy to essentially curve fit to a given data set, but that does not at all mean the resulting equation is valid for data outside the data set. The result may have no value in predicting the future. And if the data set is too short to include lower frequency trends, or excludes or incorrectly models an independent variable then the resulting model is flawed. And of course if the data set itself is flawed (and the temperature data certainly is suspect) then the resulting equation is wrong. You can monte carlo the process to account for some of the uncertainty and errors, but its still flawed and possibly worthless for prediction.
Living in a hurricane zone, I can't count the number of times I've watched disturbances form off the African coast and watched as Weather services accurately predicted the disturbance would either fall apart, head north into open ocean, or develope into a major storm. For people to base their belief in climate change on whether or not the hurricane is perfectly tracked to landfall or its exact strength perfectly forecast is rather asinine.
