China’s playing the long game, and is making key moves to hedge against Trump’s tariffs

Discussion in 'Asia' started by s002wjh, Aug 28, 2019.

  1. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    unlike trump, china is playing a long game, it has diversify trade by work closer with EU/Japn/SE asia+ its own domestic consumer. like 80s japan-US trade war, I expect it will last a decade or more. I doubt china will make deal with trump anymore, with trump constantly back and forth on his own words.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/chi...like-the-long-running-us-japan-trade-war.html

     
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2019
  2. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Do you think Trump will follow thru with his promised tariffs on the 300 billion in consumer goods or will he back away again.
     
  3. Texas Republican

    Texas Republican Well-Known Member

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    Trump will stick this out. But if followed by a Democrat, the U.S. will cave and we’ll be back to a situation where the U.S. is getting hosed in international trade and China is stealing intellectual property.
     
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  4. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    with trump no idea, he turn 180 degree faster than weather report change. but I do know he didn't accomplish NK issue, IRAN issues, haven't track the so call great wall of US yet, as for tariff, its been over 2 years, haven't seen him win yet
     
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  5. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    lol you really belief that, he would get some superficial deal and call it a win, like he call kim best friends. he is a sales man, as long he can present himself as winner, there will always be few suckers belief him. looking at his business in the pass, how many time he got sued and filed bankruptcy.
     
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  6. Texas Republican

    Texas Republican Well-Known Member

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    Naive.
     
  7. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Look no further than NAFTA 2.0.
     
  8. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Donor

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    If he gets a bad deal, it will still be better than what we had. We can get cheap labor elsewhere, but they cannot get the US dollar elsewhere. After a painful transition, our cheap items will just come with a different sticker.
     
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  9. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    I read through your article, it's wish-casting.
    There are many 3rd world suppliers that can replace China. There is no replacing our $13.8T/year consumer markets
    That's exactly what they should be doing.
    See if you can spot where we began to diversify our supply chains from Japan to China.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2019
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  10. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    You seem a bit unclear on starting sentences with capital letters and ending them with periods.

    Kellyanne Conway reported, "This president is taking the long view on China, because it was neglected for so many decades. Why is this president driving such a hard bargain with China? Half a trillion dollars trade deficit, forced technology transfers, intellectual property theft. It will be worth the wait."

    Ah, the long view.

    Which is exactly what was missing when just before the election, Obama said snottily on national TV, "At least I'll go down as a president."

    Hahaha. He did. As the worst president.
     
  11. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    I hope you are wrong,

    but I’m sure that liberal globalists in America will be buoyed by this good news out of communist china
     
  12. jay runner

    jay runner Well-Known Member

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    You don't expect China not to play the long game, and not to in the long term try its best to rule this land within the borders of the USA, do you?
     
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  13. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Well-Known Member

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    Trump is also playing the long game by pushing US companies to look for alternative sources. Breaking ties with China as much as possible will benefit America and if China is doing the same that's great. They need us much more than we need them
     
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  14. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    that's where you wrong, there are plenty cheaper labor compare to china, for example india, ever wonder only low tech like textile etc move there, but non of the mid-high tech manufacture move there. do some research on this.
     
  15. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    nope, he file bankruptcy 3 time. go read up why many company wont move even though india/Vietnam cost are much lower than china now.
     
  16. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Well-Known Member

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    Good info on this here with advantages and disadvantages and remember China has huge disadvantages such as stealing intellectual property and using the profits to build it's military which is one of the reasons for this trade war.

    https://www.intouch-quality.com/blog/5-alternatives-to-sourcing-from-china

    Resourcing is happening as we speak.

    "Trans-Pacific data shows a significant shift in US import volumes from China to Southeast Asia in the first half of 2019, the clearest evidence yet of how the United States trade war is affecting Asian sourcing patterns.

    US imports from China declined 5 percent in the first six months of the year against the same period in 2018, while imports from Vietnam were up 30.5 percent, according to data from PIERS, a JOC sister company within IHS Markit. US imports from Southeast Asia reached 1.6 million TEU in the January-June period, up almost 300,000 TEU, or 23.1 percent, over the first half of 2018.



    Other Southeast Asia nations have also experienced robust growth in the first half compared with the same period in 2018. US imports from Thailand rose 19.6 percent, Malaysia 22 percent, Indonesia 11.5 percent, and Cambodia 38.8 percent."

    https://www.joc.com/us-importers-accelerate-se-asia-sourcing-after-china-tariffs_20190708.html
     
  17. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    for textile product sure, but though most those product. just route to Vietnam from china, then slap a sticker says made in Vietnam. for mid-high end product, Vietnam/india don't have the complex supply china, skillset to meet world wide need. there are plenty article on why apple and other electronic choose to stay there despite lower labor cost elsewhere.
     
  18. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Well-Known Member

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    First Japan and then China didn't have the skill sets until they did. As per the OP we need to play the long game here and diversify our sources. China has become to consumer products in America what OPEC once was before we tooled up and resourced. We did it with OPEC and we can do it with China. Won't happen overnight and in the interim there could be some turmoil but long term this policy shift is essential to our economy and world Peace.
     
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  19. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Donor

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    High-tech growth is driving the manufacturing sector in India

    [​IMG]

    The Indian manufacturing sector has reason to be optimistic with finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget announcement this year. With a growth-driven vision of achieving a $5-trillion economy by 2024, the Budget focussed on revitalising the manufacturing sector and bringing sunrise and advanced technology industries to India, stepping up the momentum of the ‘Make in India’ vision. Technology manufacturing, especially towards establishing a holistic component ecosystem, can play an important role in accelerating the growth of the sector and helping realise India’s potential as the manufacturing hub for the world.

    https://www.fortuneindia.com/opinio...ving-the-manufacturing-sector-in-india/103520
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2019
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  20. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Trump holds the worst president record by a 2 to 1 margin over Obama.
     
  21. s002wjh

    s002wjh Well-Known Member

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    india still have a long way compare to china, at least its lagging about 20 years. also they dont have the supply chain and infrastructure that china have. which is why hi/mid tech still mostly made in China. Now, there might be small amount of these mid/high manufacture move to india/vietnam but only for US market, and only for final assembly part so they can put sticker of made in vietnam. but assembly is only get about 2% of overall profit. the majority of the profits goes to the original designer which is why China want to move up the value chain and not concern too much with low value manufacture.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-cant-leave-china-no-matter-what-trump-says-51566649800

     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2019
  22. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    For the first time since Trump won the presidency in 2016, more registered voters say the country's economy is getting worse than say it's getting better. Voters still think the economy is good, but of those polled, 37% say the economy is getting worse, compared with 31% who say it's getting better and 30% who say it's staying the same. Just two months earlier in June, 23% of voters Quinnipiac surveyed said the economy was getting worse.


    "As trade tensions with China dominate the headlines, confidence in the economy is slipping," Quinnipiac University Polling analyst Mary Snow said in a statement. "The number of people who think the economy is getting worse rose by double digits since June. And roughly four in 10 voters blame the President's policies, saying they are hurting the economy, the highest level since Trump took office."

    https://www.10tv.com/article/poll-voters-think-economy-getting-worse-2019-aug
     
  23. jay runner

    jay runner Well-Known Member

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    You don't expect China not to play the long game, and not to in the long term try its very best to rule this land within the borders of the USA, do you? Chinamen cracking the whip over your progeny slaving in factories for the good of the homeland, China?

    Because that's the stakes.
     
  24. Texas Republican

    Texas Republican Well-Known Member

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    So you’re in favor of dropping the “trade war” and accepting the fact we’re destined to have vastly unfair trading policies with China.
     
  25. jay runner

    jay runner Well-Known Member

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    Well, it's a way of surrendering slowly, and it goes easy on the US elites.
     

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