From the EU - European Economic Forecast. Spring 2020 - 06 May 2020 Excerpt: Bad and good news. But, as a whole, there is no Great Economic Disaster awaiting the EU. Yes, there will be some layoffs of considerable proportions. But, that will depend. Upon what? Well, if you were (1) the head of a large and historically profitable business, and (2) you knew that next year would be a very-good-year business-wise, would you fire your best people? (Once they go, you might never get them back.) I wouldn't ....
related older thread: German debt to GDP ratio expected to fall below 60% next year (Basically my response and critical thoughts to a past news story, showing they made things look overly bright and rosy with selective interpretation of the statistics and facts) But back to the the forecast for Europe as a whole, these type of predictions are only half based in fact. If what's happening in Europe is similar to that in the US, most likely the service sector is going to be hardest hit. It's possible you might start seeing more homelessness on the streets, and the amount of foreign migration might even go down a little bit. An economic contraction of 7.5 percent is a bigger thing than it sounds like.
How much you wanna bet on what you say above? The contraction has passed, it is not in the future. People want very much to get back to "shop-till-you-drop" and also onto what they think is a well-deserved summer vacation. So Europe is NOT THAT BAD-OFF ECONOMICALLY. There is no reason why the economy should not come-back strongly. I live in France - the supermarkets are full, people are buying and they literally rushing out to get some vacation. When they all back at the end of August, there will have been some who were fired for lack of Demand. But, that will not be a great number according to French economists. Which is the underlying fact of the EU prediction. The economy is not that bad-off ...
