Global Impending Economic Doom Thread.

Japan is obvious choice but their innovative spirit has disappeared too . the 2 seemingly are related

 

You've gone off on one again. The inequalities created by underpaying workers increases macroeconomic instability. It therefore increases the need for interventionism (e.g. The military industrial complex so loved by the right wing). You just don't realise it.

 

Yes, their debt is part of the problem. A lot of causes are pointed to for their recent stagnation though so don't get too hung up on any one explanation. Quora is a great place to read different opinions by relatively informed people.
https://www.quora.com/What-caused-J...y-have-attempts-to-restart-the-economy-failed

 

Interest rates are really low so they don't have room to lower? Why do you think no significant recession is possible? A lot of economists disagree.

 

Not entirely true. A lot of the components in iphones are made of rare metals that will be depleted soon and we don't have any good replacements right now. What may happen is that phones will get worse and more expensive when those metals run low and get better again if and when an alternative is found.

 

I don't know, they're talking about a 40%-80% collapse of the United States stock market next year in 2019.

 

All the big players and stock holders are dropping stocks, what is it that they know that everybody else doesn't?

 

Couple of problems with that. First, we've had folk muttering about resource war hullabaloo for yonks. It hasn't happened. Take water supplies. If anything, there is evidence of increased cooperation. And climate change? That's already cementing the same old global divides. The real threat then is not state war; it's internal conflict (e.g. rise of fascist groups that are the real threat to economic prosperity and individual rights)

 

DOW Jones Industrial Average upon market opening...

 

@Giftedone

@Antiduopolist

@Jazz

@PrincipleInvestment

@Destroyer of illusions

@Jeannette

@trucker

@webrockk

@Baff

@Doug1943

@22catch

@reedak

@VotreAltesse

@Max Rockatansky

@ARDY

@tecoyah

 

DOW down 500 points today thus far.

 

I am a fan of Rogers - have been following him for years and have listened to link you put up previously.

My criteria for economic prognosticators is whether or not they have been right on their predictions - predicted things before they happen - get things right most of the time. Rogers is one that has met this very high bar.

Faber on the other hand "Dr. Doom" - well he will be right one day - if you say "the market is going to collapse" every day - one day you will be right. Faber's track record is not so stellar - not that he does not have good things to say but - something that might happen 10 years from now does not help me now.

Peter Shiff does an excellent Job destroying the MAGA talking points coming from the Trump sycophant. I watched that one twice

 

I am so sick of Trump supporters saying everything is great economically when it's not, it reminds me of Obama supporters....

 

It is buying into the standard "platitude speak". Most people do not have much of an understanding of things economic and so they are easily fooled.

Notice the Dow is right at where the year opened - and 1500 points below the high made in Jan of this year. So basically we are flat on the year - this is despite corporations using most of the free money they got from the tax cut to do share buybacks - as opposed to doing any expansion



This is also despite Trump going on a massive spending spree - roughly 300 Billion dollars extra - in deficit spending.

Now - correlating the over all economy to the stock market based on a 1 year chart is a sketchy exercise at best - (one needs a longer term to have any validity) - that said ... we can say that we have not seen much impact this supposedly booming economy on the markets as of yet.



Now the above 3 year chart is interesting from a technical perspective. The line is the 210 day (long term) moving average.

You can see what looks like what might be a huge double top. This is a very negative pattern from a technical perspective.

On the other hand you can see that the upward trend is still intact. The Dow is sitting just on top of the long term moving average and has not broken below. This is why today's action is significant.



This is the same chart but shorter term so we can see the action around the long term moving average (LTMA). Notice we touched it last week - had a big of a rebound off it but then have come back to retest. We dropped a fair bit below the LTMA earlier in the day but have managed to recover and looks like we will close right at the LTMA -sans a late day move down.

Look back at the second chart and note that we have not tested the LTMA since early in 2016. Having formed what looks like a nasty double top - if the DOW closes below the LTMA ... say continuing to move down a little over the next few days - then retests the LTMA but is pushed back below (like putting someones head back below water) - this could send a big shiver down the spine of traders and may trigger some program selling.

Wouldn't it be something if we saw a 1 or 2 thousand point drop prior to the mid terms.

 

Who is " they " ? Those %s are between abysmal and catastrophic. We dont have a bubble market.. its consistently let off steam and medium and small business startups and capital investments are through the roof?

The last 2 months I have been travelling and all I see everywhere is building..thats from Orlando up the east coast to DC then diagonally SW towards San Antonio where I am now


I mean it would take something...I cant even conjure it in my pretty imaginative mind to cause such a collapse? IE unless you can support such a claim im calling you out for fear mongering.

 

The absolute madman and economic technical analysis master Peter Schiff:

 

Return of the Plunge Protection Team........

DOW drops 500 points in the morning and the PPT comes into the rescue, no rigged markets my ass.