Going into the GA-06 race, Ossoff is leading in all polling

And the internals are simply fascinating:

1.) Gravis Marketing GA 6th Congressional Poll - Gravis
Gravis is a Republican firm. Taken from 5/8 to 5/10, released 5/14, 870 LV, MoE = +/-3.3

Ossoff (D) 47
Handel (R) 45
Ossoff +2

And that in spite of a massive VR advantage for the Rs in the survey group (R42/D33, R+11)

2.) SurveyUSA Election Poll #23518

SUSA is a relatively neutral firm and it's polling is generally good. The one state where I can statistically prove that SUSA was really bad in 2012, 2014 and 2016, was: Kentucky. But generally, SUSA is pretty close to a bullseye. Conducted 5/16-5/20, released 5/22, 549 LV, MoE = +/-4.3:

Ossoff (D) 51
Handel (R) 44
Ossoff +7

In this poll, Handel only gets 4% of the D vote, while Ossoff gets 12% of the R vote. He also gets 36% of the Evangelical vote, while Handel gets 12% of the Black vote (I could write a long posting on SUSA and AA vote calculations, it would be fascinating). Anyhow, both of these polls were BEFORE the debate where Handel (R) said that she did not believe in a "living wage", a statement that is obviously hurting her.

The latest poll:

3.) http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/new...ases-after-debate-with-karen-handel/531355052

WSB-TV / Landmark Communications, conducted 6/06-6/07, released 6/08, 420 LV, MoE = +/-4.8 (too high for my taste):

Ossoff (D) 49.6
Handel (R) 47.1
Ossoff +2.5

That is an almost 2 point jump in margin for Democrat Ossoff over the Landmark poll from about 2 weeks ago,

The internals are fascinating:



The stuff I find interesting I have blocked-in in a dark orange/gold color.
Ossoff is winning among younger voters (18-39) by around 25 points
He is also winning among the slightly older crowd (40-64) by abound 9 points.
But among the AARP crowd, Handel is winning by about 16 points.

Among the races, Handel is winning the white vote (and this is critical), but only by about +8 points. She is only getting about 9% of the Black vote and Ossoff is beating her in the black vote by about +77 points, standard fare for a Democrat in Georgia. He is also winning under "other" (Latino, Indian -as in, from India, etc) by about 33 points, also not a big surprise.

What IS a big surprise is the cross-partisan take of the vote:

Ossoff is getting almost 16% of the R vote (Handel +68 ) - while Handel is getting only 1% of the D vote (Ossoff +95!). That is an ENORMOUS disparity in the cross-party preference statistics and works as a double-whammy against Handel since the Rs allegedly have the upper-hand in VR, something that cannot be 100% confirmed. See: next paragraph. Handel is leading in the "other" vote (read that as: Libertarian) by about +19 points, but Ossoff is leading in the "Independent" (unaffiliated) vote by +15 points, and all of this in a CD that was once a bedrock GOP CD.

This is all complicated by the fact the Georgia, as a state, does not collect or present voter registration data by party affiliation, but rather, only by gender and race. A number of southern states follow this model of VR statistics.

The commonality in these polls is Ossoff's take of the opposition party's vote, and that with partisan identification that should -under normal circumstances- work against him. So, the cross-section of whopping in the vote among all under the age of 64, of doing considerably better in the Evangelical vote than anyone would ever expect for a Democrat (Ossoff is Jewish) and his impressive statistics among Independent voters, coupled with the best home party statistics (95-96% of the D vote) that I have seen for a Democrat in a long time, it sure looks as if Ossoff could really defy gravity and win this CD, coming easily over 50%.

The lessons I learn from this are:

1.) All politics are local
2.) A really, really good candidate can beat a candidate from a party that has the home-turf advantage in an election
3.) Coattails play a role. I am absolutely sure that Pres. Trump and his bad approval ratings are playing a role here.
4.) The electoral landscape is always ever so slightly shifting and it is worth is to keep an eye on as many details as possible.

Ossoff is certainly an interesting person to watch. A mix between progressive but also corporate Democrat with appeal to Independents, he is also finding enough Republicans who are obviously unhappy with the current GOP in the Executive and the Congressional that who are willing to give him a good, hard look.

Now, aside from the SUSA margin (Ossoff +7), this is still statistically a tie and CD polling is notoriously instable. So, I am not yet willing the bet the farm that Ossoff will emerge as the winner; a lot can happen in 11 days. But I do suspect that Pres. Trump will launch a new twitter-tirade against Ossoff. Doubt it will help much. Should Ossoff win, Democrats will crow that this is a huge hit against Trump. If Handel wins, the Republicans will crow that it's a confirmation of Trump. Either way, Trump is, whether one mentions him or not, deep in the thick of this race.

Georgia's 6th congressional district - Wikipedia

In 2016, incumbent Representative Tom Price won this CD by +23.4%. Alone, a tie here would mean a shift of 23.4 points toward team Blue. Think about that.


-Stat

 

I find that betting odds are a good indicator - looks like a 2 to 1 race in favor of Ossoff.

A switch here isn't as meaningful as people might like it to be. Recall who won Ted Kennedy's seat? Was it followed by thay state turning red, or even a new normal? No. Brown won that seat in the special election, and the state shortly went back to voting in one of the most vocally liberal Senators in the country. Simple fact is that the party out of power routinely does better in special elections.

What's most amazing is how much cash is in this race. I thought I heard somewhere that this is the most ever spent in a race for a house seat, and Democrats are funneling in much more.

 

Update: new poll

ABT/SRBI Inc / Atlanta Journal-Constitution, conducted 6/05-6/08, released 6/09.
745 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Ossoff (D) 51
Handel (R) 44
Ossoff +7

This is the second poll within about 14 days to show Ossoff with +7 in a CD with a Cook PVI of R+8:
Cook Partisan Voting Index - Wikipedia

The crosstabs are extremely critical here:
Poll: Georgia 6th District poll crosstabs

UNWEIGHTED, among those who have not voted yet, it's Ossoff 48 / Handel 44. Among those who have already voted, according to the survey, it's Ossoff 65 / Handel 34, and the composite is then the Ossoff 51 / Handel 44 that you see above. However, the subgroup of those who have already voted is extremely small, the MoE for that subgroup must be about +/-20.

Under the internals, similar to other polls, Ossoff is getting 13% of the opposition party (R) vote, while Handel is getting only 3% of the D vote. Again, Handel is leading in the White vote by only +8 points. That is not enough to get her over 50%, based on the Demographics of this CD.

Overall, the internals to this poll look a lot like the internals to the Landmark poll that was released yesterday.

Historically, the ABJ poll tends to lean a tad to the left by about 2 points, so I suspect that this is more like a 5 point lead. And if you take the last polls and average them: Ossoff +2, Ossoff +7, Ossoff +2.5 and Ossoff +7, then the average is: Ossoff +4.63, which is outside the standard MoE.


I have no doubt that Ossoff is really in the lead here and with his money advantage, his GOTV effort and his seemingly boundless energy, I think he is going to win. The last time a Democrat represented GA-06 was in 1978-1979, I believe.

 

Betting odds gave Hillary a 75% of winning, let's remember. I know little to nothing about this race, though, and don't have much of an opinion because I know nothing about either candidate other than the (L)etter by their name.

 

So? A six sided die still lands on a six every one out of six times. The odds were in Hillary's favor - that she lost doesn't mean that the odds were wrong, the odds still said there was a reasonable chance of her losing.

 

And Hillary DID win. Polls are based RATIONALLY, on people not acreage. There is no Electoral College here to save the Republican bacon.

 

I'm not going to entertain the delusions of someone who thinks Hillary won, simply because she got 3 million more popular votes. That metric is meaningless; the race wasn't based upon it. Trump didn't even campaign in States where the EC was up for grabs for him. He won based upon his strategy. Hillary, on the other hand, arrogantly presumed that certain States would go Dem, and she was hilariously wrong.

And the electoral college doesn't exist 'to save the Republican bacon'. It's to ensure that the entire country isn't ruled by the whim of a densely populated area that represents only a tiny portion of the country.

 

You seem to want to have it both ways: you first said that "betting odds were a good indicator", and then - when I pointed out how good an indicator it was in the POTUS election - you chose to view the minority odds as still representative of a possibility.

Well. No kidding.

 

Suppose ossoff loses

Do liberals have their russian collusion chant ready just in case?

 

Democrats are good at spending extreme amounts of money to get people into office while Republicans spend far less and still get people into office. Trump is a great example of this. Most of that money Democrats use go into hate ads on tv and that campaign tactic is failing them.

 

You are wrong. If Hillary won as you claim why is Trump our president? The total number of votes does not matter or Trump would have campaigned for more votes.

If you have 600 million people living in New Hampshire and they all vote for a Democrat and the rest of the entire country votes for a Republican but does not have enough total votes who should win? One big city like Los Angeles should not decide the election. Everyone deserves a voice. That's what the EC is for.

We also don't know how many of Hillary's votes are from illegals. California is full of illegals and that is the state that gave her more votes.

 

Polls show... Especially a poll by a TV station. Was this an Internet poll?

 

Hillary won the poplular vote, and THAT is the vote the polls predicted. Polls do not predict the Electoral College, that was my point. I realize Trump is the elected President, and your President, and you are welcome to him.

If 600 million people live in New Hampshire, where would you bloody PUT them all?

Seriously, let's day 45 million people live in New York State, and the other states have one person in each one. Should those 49 people get to choose the President over the 45 millions?

 

OP says the poll was by Gravis Marketing, a Republican firm.

 

Hillary up by 16 points over Trump 10/1/2016

 

Even NPR has reported on the source of Ossoffs campaign donations. Only 2.5%, yes thats a decimal, of Ossoffs donations came from inside the state of Georgia. Ossoff declined to attend a debate with the GOP candidate. CNN repeatedly offered to set up the debate. Just like HRC, Ossoff is relying on resistance, and money to win himself election.

 

Uh, so saying that a six sided die still rolls a one one out of six times is "wanting to have it both ways"....


uh.... k.

 

I wonder if this is as accurate and truthful as the polls prior to the presidential election?

How did that work out for "president Clinton?

 

The Ossoff and Handel race will come down to turnout.

The media will complain when plenty of young voters forget to vote. They will claim that Ossoff won a moral victory.

 

I think he will do well among illegal alien voters just as hillary did

 

Georgia has a very tight voter registration system. People will not be able to vote if they were not on the rolls when the first primary election took place.

 

I'm wondering how todays shooting will affect the race?

 

Thats good news


Does Georgia have moter voter?

And if so is it ok to issue drivers licenses to illegal aliens like they do in california where hillary did so well?

 

The California situation is a farce because all you have to do is claim to be eligible to vote and you only have to provide the last 4 digits of your Social Security number.

How in the world could an agency cross check something with only 4 digits when there are 9 digits in the whole number?

Needless to say, the opportunity to participate in voter fraud is pretty well known.

 

The liberals in california want illegals to vote so they make it as easy as possible