Herd immunity by April?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Bluesguy, Feb 19, 2021.

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  1. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal by
    Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”


    We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April
    Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

    Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

    In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

    Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

    There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life......
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-h...ril-11613669731?mod=searchresults_pos3&page=1

    The doctor continues in the article discussing what we have learned about the T-cell memory reaction and that while antibodies are produced to fight an infection that many who never showed signs of COVID are testing positive "trained" T-cells.

    And of course the great news about the 77% decrease over the last 6 weeks!.
     
  2. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    The reason why cases dropped in January was because there were no holidays, and, thus, fewer parties. Vaccinations require 4-6 weeks after the first dose to reach the full protection. So far, only about 5% of the population have received two doses. There is absolutely ZERO chance that we will reach herd immunity by April.

    Second, the hypothesis that 55% of Americans have acquired natural immunity is laughable.
     
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  3. hawgsalot

    hawgsalot Well-Known Member

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    So you don't think the cases will continue to drop?
     
  4. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    They might, or they might go up again. It all depends on people's behavior. If they become complacent because of the recent drop in cases and because of erroneously thinking herd immunity is already here, like the OP, then we might have another wave, especially considering that the more infections variants are about to take over. We should all keep in mind that the UK was unable to control their last wave even with lockdowns, because the UK variant is so much more infective. Things are looking hopeful, but we are not out of the woods yet.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2021
  5. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This article is incredibly misguided. He cites as an example of herd immunity, the city of Manaus where 76% of the population had been infected with the previous variant, "resulting in a significant slowing of the infection." Well, guess what, good doctor, do update your notions, because after that, the P.1 variant hit and 30 to 40% of the people are getting Covid-19 all over again, courtesy of the P.1, getting sicker this time, and the city is CURRENTLY in the midst of its worst public health crisis in its history, to the point that the hospitals got overwhelmed (which hadn't happened with the previous variant), lacked oxygen, and hundreds died suffocated, to the point that the Brazilian Supreme Court is now looking at the idea of prosecuting that country's Health Minister for dereliction of duty. So much for Manau's herd immunity!!! Yes, overall numbers in Brazil did decrease slightly (before restarting an up-climb) but not in Manaus where they are going the opposite direction, and several other cities that got overrun by the P.1, including Fortaleza, Salvador, Uberlandia, and others (ten cities are currently posting catastrophic surges and approaching the Manaus catastrophe, with ICU occupancy of 98% - Uberlandia is starting a ferocious lockdown, today). After a modest decrease in numbers, it's actually going up again. Here is Brazil's current graph:

    [​IMG]

    So, countries like Brazil with new variants, he says, are "also showing a significant decline in daily new cases"? That's a misinformed lie, good doctor. Not only the small drop wasn't that significant, but it is ticking up again.

    Yes, we in the US did have a drop in cases. It's not because of what the good doctor is saying, but rather because of simply the Christmas wave being over so we went back to the level of transmission, cases, and deaths, seen before the first holiday surge after Thanksgiving.

    Now, brace for the B.1.1.7. Everywhere where it took over, cases increased again, dramatically. The way it is doubling every 10 days, it will be the dominant variant by the end of March. So, we'll see what will happen to the good doctor's prediction for April.

    This is the kind of article that potentially won't age well.

    Could it happen that we'll continue to see a drop by April? Not entirely impossible because fortunately for us, the B.1.1.7 is fully susceptible to the vaccines and to previous infections by the old variant. So it depends on pace of vaccination, and people's behaviors. The United States ALSO has now the B.1.351 and the P.1 variants, both more infections, and both less susceptible to the vaccines and to natural immunity from the previous variants. So what will make or break April is not herd immunity to the previous variants, but rather, whether the variant mix will show a predominance of B.1.1.7 (we actually should root for that, in a sense; while this variant is worse than the current one at least it is susceptible to vaccines and to natural immunity) or one of the other two or a combination (and if the latter, it will depend on the degree of presence for each variant), and whether or not we'll vaccinate enough people to at least make a dent.

    So, we accelerate the pace of vaccination, and the P.1 and the B.1.351 don't get a foothold? Than maybe the good doctor's prediction will hold (but not for the reasons he believes). We run into a lot of P.1 and B.1.351 and vaccination hits a bottleneck or these variants further mutate and become even more able to evade the vaccines and natural immunity? Then, beware.

    But regardless of whether or not we will indeed see a continuous decline until April, the conclusions spouted by the good doctor are extremely premature. The virus has a way of ridiculing pundits and politicians that predict its demise.
     
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  6. sec

    sec Well-Known Member

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    hmm, what an interesting statement. Lockdowns have not worked because if they did, there would be no lockdown 2 dot oh or lockdown 3 dot oh

    Virus is going to do what all viruses do, mutate and continue and become endemic. We need to learn to live with it much like the common cold and flu. Our bodies will build immunity, and much like the annual "flu shot", vaccines can't cover all strains/mutations

    I am hoping that since a Democrat is now in the WH, the hysteria that was being hyped will subside. The election is over and the politics of Covid needs to stop.
     
  7. Eleuthera

    Eleuthera Well-Known Member Donor

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    Herd immunity at one level or another has been with us for quite some time.

    The shots do not confer immunity to Covid, they are designed for editing genetic material.

    The numbers have been cooked for an entire year, so that the fears and perceptions of the masses can be manipulated. Yes Virginia, it worked very damn well, you're welcome.

    Even NYT has admitted what every curious and informed person already knew, the PCR tests were bogus. That means everything that came from the bogus tests is bogus.
     
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  8. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'm going to go on on a limb now. :)
    If we can keep closures or at least curfews on bars, close churches or at least stop singing, and maintain social distancing at restaurants while continuing with masks, things will look very rosy by the end of April.
    We are having some luck right now in that positives are dropping like a rock with no signs of letting up.
    upload_2021-2-20_11-41-56.png
    Since not all herds are equal, we are doing the vaccine almost perfectly.
    You can be pretty sure the nursing homes have herd immunity and doing us old people first will drop the death rate by almost 60% and hospitalizations by a similar amount.
    upload_2021-2-20_11-53-14.png
    upload_2021-2-20_11-54-37.png
    So based on the last lows, hospitalizations could easily drop to about 10% of what they were at the last peak and deaths at 300 a day instead of 3000.
    So if we can keep a few of the mitigations and don't get bit to bad by the the variants and kids back to school, think we can prove Trump right... It will all be good by April.
     
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  9. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    And Pfizer announcing that the first dose provides 85% immunity and I imagine Moderna will be announcing something similar. And we know lots of people who contract never show symptoms and are carrying the t-cells necessary to provide immunity now.
     
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  10. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    And studies are showing that the vaccines and the t-cells people develop are effective against the various strains.
     
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  11. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What part of "or these variants further mutate and become even more able to evade the vaccines" you didn't understand, even though this phrase is right there in the very post you've just quoted?

    Do you think I ignore the T cells angle? I posted about it in my State of the Vaccines thread.

    In my post above I also said that maybe we'll be fine by April ("then maybe the good doctor's predictions will hold"), but I'm just saying, it's very possible that this virus hasn't stopped throwing curveballs at us, yet. We'll see.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2021
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  12. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    Yep, 85% immunity for the Pfizer vaccine THREE WEEKS AFTER GETTING THE FIRST SHOT. Since about half of all shots were given in the last three weeks, the immunity will lag the number of doses given by that time. I am not trying to be negative here, but one has to be realistic. The premature victory lap, making people become complacent, will just help the virus get another wave.
     
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  13. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

    That's fabulous news!
     
  14. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And all these victory laps ignore the danger of the three new variants, B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1, all three already in America, and growing.
    A-It is very possible that we'll see the waning of the pandemic.
    B-But if its ALSO possible that things will get even worse than the latest peak.
    We'll see. The jury is still out.
    Of course I root for A, but I can't ignore that B is not out of the realm of possibilities, either.
     
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  15. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Post-election "Covid is over" news, as predicted. lol

    upload_2021-2-20_16-47-10.png

    upload_2021-2-20_16-47-56.png

    https://www.latimes.com/california/...c-herd-immunity-vaccinations-plummeting-cases


    Trump (February 2020): “A lot of people think that goes away in April as the heat comes in,” Trump said of the outbreak that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan. “Typically that will go away in April.

    Epidemiologists (February 2021): "The arrival of spring will likely aid the ongoing precipitous drop in coronavirus cases, as warmer weather allows people to spend more time outdoors and creates a less hospitable environment for the virus, experts say."
     
  16. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    NYT: Yep. Looks like could be April.

    upload_2021-2-20_16-54-5.png
     
  17. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What is to be LOL'ed is that people think that this virus gives a s.... about the elections.
    Covid is coming down due to the end of the holiday surge, the beginning of the vaccination (to a small degree, as of now), and the growing number of natural infections.
    But the whole thing can still reverse with the new variants (the jury on this is still out).
    Neither of these things have anything to do with the elections. The virus will do what the virus does.
    And remember, there's been MANY predictions of the end of this pandemic already... that just got thwarted by still another surge. We'll see. Could be good, could turn bad again. But whatever the virus does, it's not because of American politics.
     
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  18. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    Just to follow up, 3 weeks ago 9% of people had received their first dose. That's the % of people who are at 85% + immunity today. We have a long way to go until herd immunity. I have another thread on the exponential rise of vaccinations. At the current rate of rise, we may be at around 40% Americans having received their first shot, probably around 30% being at 85% + immunity. That's promising, but herd immunity will NOT be reached by April, not even the end of April.
     
  19. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Doomsday! Politicians needs you to be afraid.

    Doctors are starting to speak the truth.

     
  20. Big Richard

    Big Richard Banned

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    I had seen on the local news a week or so ago that we won’t reach heard immunity until 70% have got the vaccine. That’s not gonna happen anytime soon.....maybe....maybe by late fall if all goes well and IDK if 70% will even take the shot.
     
  21. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    Oh, the horror, Fauci telling people to not let down their guard. Can't have that, must have people disrespect the virus for the good of the economy.

    Of course, Fauci is correct. Ingraham, on the other hand, peddles data from the UK, not mentioning that the UK was under a pretty hard lockdown for almost two months. That's what it took to get the UK variant under control. Now, she is taking a premature victory lap, and Fox News viewers will pay with their lives believing this stuff
     
  22. LoneStarGal

    LoneStarGal Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The entire Covid scare narrative and the lockdown of the global economies represent the largest crime against humanity in our lifetime.
     
  23. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Instead of SIX TO EIGHT WEEKS AFTER THE FIRST SHOT.................GEEZZZZ. Yes it is already hitting and growing fast, and by April along with more people who were infected but never showed symptoms but now have the capability to produce antibodies.............................you just can't stand it can you.
     
  24. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    And we are finding more people have it without getting the shot but were exposed and now have the T-cell memory to produce antibodies if they are exposed. Read the OP.
     
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  25. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Which is nothing new and the experts I have been hearing the followups I have been reading is that yes the vaccines work against the variants. And it's not just the "good doctor" who is a recognized expert but I am hearing more and more experts who agree we are finding that more people were exposed and more have developed the T-cell memories.

    I got my first dose last Monday. Am I out going back to my hangouts. Nope but that light at the end of the tunnel is sure shining much brighter that it was a couple of months ago.
     

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