How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination: A break-down of delegates and a brokered convention

He cannot beat Romney.
He cannot beat Santorum.
He cannot beat Gingrich.
He could not beat Perry.
He could not beat Cain.

Yet you think he could beat obama.

The elections will be decided by logic and reality, not wistful dreaming.

vs obama
Romney -5%

Gingrich -10%

Santorum -5%

Paul -6.6%

That is NOT picking out one favorable poll to fool yourself with, that is the average result of all the major polls.

Paul fares better than ONLY Gingrich.

And that is WITH the fact that Paul supporters ARE very young and very much into "poll packing."

5 years from now we will be going through another presidential process. Paul will be a minor historical footnote then. Essentially forgotten.

Had he made even a few of his important issue actually HAPPEN, he'd be the clear frontrunner. But he failed to do that.

 

Not picking out a favorite poll, but picking the most recent poll. Do you agree that opinion changes and that the election won't be an average of polls, but will be the most recent poll, the poll that is the election?

Even by your numbers though, he is only 1.6% away from Romney and Santurom, who again, according to your number, "can't beat Obama."

Additionally, you are only looking at 2-Way polls, not taking into account that 2012 is slated to be a "3-Way" year, as I've covered with ALL available polls on 3-way races:

http://freeindependentsun.com/repub...pular-vote-in-the-2012-presidential-election/

http://freeindependentsun.com/repub...on-paul-led-republican-ticket-can-beat-obama/

Romney, Gingrich and Santurom will lose votes to the RIGHT. They will lose votes to the Libertarian Candidate. Ron Paul will not.

Again, I agree, Paul's challenge is beating his Republican Opponents, but ALL the polls show that he has the best chance of beating Obama. You must take into account the real election we are going to have, not between 2 candidates, but between 5-7, with a large portion of the American Electorate willing to go with someone other than Republican or Democrat (the original poll on the subject had it at 30% willing to vote third Party, though with specific candidates it is closer to 15%...enough to sway the election, if, Ron Paul is not the GOP Nominee, because guess what, in a 3 way race between Obama, Romney and Paul Paul gets 17%. Imagine if that stays with the GOP with Paul as the Nominee...that equals a WIN).

Also note, that in EVERY 3-way polls, Romney loses. EVERY one, he only TIES in 1 single poll (with Bernie Sanders as the 3 candidates; Sanders isn't running). But Johnson is. That is the reality of the situation, and it must be taken into account when accessing this upcoming election.

Ron Paul CAN Win. All he needs to do is get the Nomination...

 

What I'm NOT doing is wandering aimlessly in some wannabe neverneverland where Paul has any effect on anything. Paul is now 77. He has had no effect on any political situation for 77 years. He is not about to change.

I agree that elections ARE the best polls. In the 11 elections to date Paul has garnered 11.2% of the votes. He's just shy by 88.8%. He has 8 actually bound delegates. He is already, out of it.

I'd love to see Paul be a strong candidate. I'd love to see him wax obama in Nov. But I'm Paul's age and I've picked up just a little knowledge and experience along the way. Enough to run some very successful business. And a major factor in that success was in being able to read people and situations are they really are, not how they want someone to think they are.
We have 535 congressmen and 1 president. Not 5 out of the total would qualify as one of "our best and brightest." Maybe not 1. So in politics, we MUST deal with reality, not hopes and dreams. Hopes and dreams is what obama sold to the fools that elected him. It was total bull(*)(*)(*)(*). It wasn't promises he couldn't keep due to politics. It was manipulative lies from the start.
I believe that Paul may be sincere in his beliefs. But that won't get him elected and it wouldn't get the job done if elected. Paul does better than Gingrich in electability for now. but as president Gingrich would get much, much more DONE than Paul. So would Romney. I have questions about Santorum.

But Paul talks good issues. His delivery is poor but his issues are good. obama's issues are terrible but his delivery is superb. Ad obama. Is that the way things SHOULD be? NO. Its just the way things ARE.

The accomplishments of both Paul and obama are miserably non-existent. so Paul could hammer obama on obama's record and obama could hammer Paul on Paul's record. obama can out talk, out deliver Paul 1000 to 1. No substance, just IMAGE. IMAGE would win.

 

Au contrare. I've more than backed my arguments.

Because it's true.

 

By posting opinions that would have no negative impact on the country....got it...

So you are saying Obama has done little wrong that any of the candidates can use against him?

 

I think you just nailed it.

If we are going to have the change we need, both individually and socially, we need to overcome our worship of image.

First, individually, we must overcome the image (of the beast?). We must be able to value the substance and not succumb to the image. That means, making choices based on substance not image. "He can't win because he looks, speaks, etc." is making a choice based on image.

What one should so, "I'm voting for him because of his substance, but I understand that Image may work against him. However, I do not succumb to Image."

Paul vs. Obama will be exactly what this country/world needs, a clear choice between substance and image.

You can not blame the rest of the world for your choices. You can not blame the reality of sin on giving in. We are all responsible for our actions and our choices.

That is why Paul may be seen as having "done nothing" to those that value image over substance. Over "doing something" rather than "standing for something."

He voted against Wars that were popular. He voted against debt that popular.

He made the right choice, others did not. To me, that is doing more than nothing. That is doing the right thing, setting an example, and proving he will do the same thing as President.

Politics is not a business, and shouldn't be ran as one. It isn't about profits, it's about protecting the rights of the people, even if its not popular. Better to do nothing, than to do harm.

Better to vote on substance than on image.

 

no dice. He wants the party offering.

 

99.9999% of the dolts that will be voting are NOT on this forum. There is no circumstance where Paul could beat obama's image in the general election. He can't beat even one of the remaining Republicans. Paul will finish LAST in Virginia, and Gingrich and Santorum are not on the ballot!

 

Which forum are 100% of the voters on? I don't know what I was thinking posting on a forum that 100% of voters aren't on. Thanks for the heads up!

Paul is beating Obama in the Polls...

Gingrich and Santorum aren't on the Virginia ballot? I wonder what that says about their campaigns...

 

I doubt Paul is winning in the Paul Family Household poll

obama vs Paul 03/04/2012

Rasmussen O +2

NBC News/WSJ O +8

AP O +9

CNN/opinion research O +7

CBS O+11


PPP O+8

Only Gingrich does worse than Paul vs. obama.

The biggest problem for Paul supporters,,,,,,,,,REALITY!

 

Check this out, tell me what you think:

http://freeindependentsun.com/republic/what-the-new-ppp-3-way-race-poll-shows-only-a-ron-paul-led-republican-ticket-can-beat-obama/

Look at those polls, of the 3-Way race that will occur with Romney as the Nominee. In that reality, can Romney win? Doesn't it look like Paul is a much better candidate?

Please tell me how Romney can win a 3 way race, which is the reality of 2012.

And you excluded the poll showing Paul beating Obama head-to-head...why?

 

I included all the MAJOR polls. I know of no respected poll that has Paul beating ANYONE.

All thoughts of Paul being ANY kind of a factor in ANY presidential race are unrealistic dreams. He is out of it now. He was NEVER in it. Santorum and Gingrich are also out of it. Romney has more delegates than the rest combined. It is over, Romney HAS won. The ONLY possible contest is for Gingrich to quit immediately and ALL his support go to Santorum. Even then Romney wins. [And he was not my favorite] and I'll vote FOR him. If Gingrich and Santorum dropped out, Paul would remain in low numbers.

If Romney, Gingrich and Santorum ALL dropped out, Paul would still lose.

Paul would have some chance against Boehner or Pelosi or Reid or Gore.

He is NOT a factor.

 

It is impossible for Paul to win the nomination he hasn't won a single state. So why hasn't he dropped out?

 

Massive, ridiculous EGO!

 

Because it's not about winning states, it's about delegates. Especially if Romney fails to win the 1,144 delegates needed in the first round of voting at the RNC. If it goes to a second round, it is anyone's game:

http://freeindependentsun.com/repub...precincts-and-a-possible-brokered-convention/

Also, look at the most legit/realistic delegate assessment so far:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=q-O0jgRgo4I

Even with the most "liberal" delegate counts Romney has a little over 400 (a little more than a third of what he needs to secure the nomination), and 20/50 states have voted. So, he needs to do better than he has to secure the nomination.

So, Ron Paul is in it because he can still win, and part of the way he wins is by educating people on how the Nomination Process actually works. Since our supporters are far more educated on this process then the other candidates' we have taken a lot of these delegate spots, even the "bound" delegates are Ron Paul supporters in many cases. So if it goes to a second vote at the RNC, those votes go to Ron Paul.

 

He is the only candidate, including Obama, talking about the issues that he is promoting.

Even if you don't think he can win, you have to at least admit that he has a legit purpose to stay in the race to keep these issues in the debate. It is obviously not about ego.

He is in it for a cause. He is in it to win if he can.

 

Rasmussen is a major poll: http://www.thestatecolumn.com/artic...ul-bests-obama-for-the-first-time-nationally/

If all the other candidates dropped out Ron Paul would win. You understand that right?

 

Since Paulobots minds are cemented shut, your eyes are blinded, and your ears are deafened, you are unaware that 3 other candidates are saying 95% of the same issues Paul is saying. The difference is that Paulobots don't know they're saying the same things and that they are obviously much more effective in their delivery.

And WHAT did you hope to achieve by posting a link to a Paul Support site? You ridiculously claim Paul will win and link to a crazy site that believes just like you do.

BOTH WRONG!

All nonsense about Paul being a factor are utter nonsense. And a brokered convention or 3 way race is a GUARANTEED LOSS. In the last half century, Republicans have had 4 brokered conventions. ALL lost in the general election. 3rd party candidates, have a much worse record that that!

WAKE UP TO REALITY!

 

Romney wont win, idk what angle the rights playing to give obama 4 more years, but they're giving it to him.

 

The other candidates want to audit the Fed and make Gold and Silver legal tender by abolishing capital gains taxes on precious metals and allowing citizens to pay their taxes in them?

The other candidates want to withdrawal troops from around the world and end sanctions on Iran and Cuba?

The other candidates want to end the War on drugs?

The other candidates want to actually cut the budget (as opposed to just cut proposed spending increases)?

The other candidates want to abolish the Death Penalty?

The other candidates want to repeal the PATRIOT Act and NDAA?

Please provide quotes/links.

Because it referenced a Rasmussen Poll showing Paul leading Obama 43-41 in a head-to-head race.

Why can't you admit that it is very likely that Romney will not secure the nomination, and in a brokered convention, that Paul has a chance of winning?

 

Rasmussen in a 2/24-2/25 poll had Paul +2 over obama.

3/3-3/4 Rasmussen has obama +2 over Paul.

The Rasmussen Poll and I like Rasmussen and check it regularly, is Paul's BEST, by far, major poll. but even Rasmussen had Paul + 2 only that one time SINCE 04/2011.
And NO other major poll has had Paul up at all dating back to 11/2010.

Paulobots are like the Black Knight in Monty Python. arms cut off, legs cut off, torso cut in 2 and saying, "I'll give you a tie!"

You got a sham. A has been that never was. A career politician that spent 3 decades in office doing NOTHING constructive. Neither EVER passing a good bill nor ever stopping a bad bill. 3 decades of empty words.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_paul_vs_obama-1750.html

And what you do not understand is that if the other candidates dropped out Paul would NOT be the nominee. Somebody else would come in and beat him. Cain could come back in and blow Paul out of the water.

 

That's why it is important to keep strong and keep winning delegates for Paul and make it to the convention so we have a chance of winning.

 

Ron Paul has no chance of winning, he can't even win a single state when it's him vs Romney.

 

Thanks for acknowledging that.

 

He got 40+% in Virginia against Romney. He nearly won Maine.

He has a chance, you can say it is slim, but it is a chance.

Plus he is likely closer to Romney in Delegates than most "predictions" portray.