Actually, we've only been contactable for 50 light-years (galaxy is 100,000 light years across), given that's the maximum range at which we could have been detected and received a message back (assuming 100 years). Unless said alien civilization found a way around the limit of light speed and decided to monitor our remote part of the galaxy.
life is ubiquitous in the Universe. Its simple...if it happened here it of course can happen elsewhere. Europa is a churning ball of heated salt water teaming with organics. There is life there..just because we arent smart enough to land a probe there to get to it in order to confirm it doesnt mean it isnt there. This is just in our puny solar system. Given the size of the known universe...its pretty imbecilic to conclude we are it.. We arent.
http://sci.esa.int/juice/ It's just a matter of time now. https://www.airspacemag.com/space/mission-to-enceladus-9577482/
I agree, however, we are quite primitive, perhaps too primitive for advanced civilizations as far as direct or open contact, there is no doubt that clandestine visitation has already occurred.
The study in the OP is myopic because it is done from our own exceptionally limited perspective. Life has been around for about 4 out of the 4.5 billion years that our planet has existed. Hominids arose about 3 million years ago and modern man, AKA homo sapiens, started around 1.5 million years or so. Our earliest records date back 30k and those are just rock paintings. Civilization began around a handful of millennia ago and the industrial revolution started just 2 centuries ago. In other words out of the entire period that life has existed and evolved on this planet our ability to even figure out that there are other habitable planets in the universe is on the order of a nano sized fraction of an eye blink. It is like we have just woken up and we are looking around us and realizing that we are not the only form of intelligent life in the universe and somehow expecting that we will receive a text from Beta Centauri inviting us to an intergalactic kegger party this coming weekend. We need a great deal more information before we make a definitive claim that we are alone in the universe just because that text hasn't arrived on our iPhone.
It is HIGHLY unlikely an advanced people would decide openly visiting a violent and paranoid planet to say hi is a good idea. If they were interested for some reason I find it likely they would watch from afar and gather data until it was safe.
In BOLD above is total BS. No one even knows the extent of the Universe, almost none of the Universe has been researched, humans do not possess the knowledge or data or equipment to make such assertions. For relatively ignorant Earthlings to believe since aliens have not yet, TO OUR KNOWLEDGE, visited Earth, therefore they do not exist, is absurd. Last, the Drake equation, while providing some interesting perspective, even taken at face value, Earthlings don't have the knowledge to accurately answer the Drake variables. The ONLY thing Earthlings actually know today about potential ET's is basically nothing...
This is the most salient point in my mind: If life is so rare that we are likely alone in the galaxy, then life is so rare that our own existence is astronomically unlikely - perhaps billions to one. Since the evidence stands to the contrary, the odds must be more favorable. If the odds are that bad then we have to assume that we don't exist. The hypothesis also ignores concepts such as panspermia. Perhaps bacteria from a common source has been seeding the galaxy all along.
My point is humans know 1% about the Universe...or less! We don't even know much of what is going on in nearby planets and our Solar system. We haven't even figured out everything on Earth. In the grand scheme of the Universe humans know so little that we almost know nothing...
My quandary is if we truly believe in the process of how life started on Earth, then how can it be possible that 'some' forms of life have not also started in billions of other locations? Over 13+ billion years of this process, how many times in how many locations has life evolved and gone extinct? This is why I believe it's difficult to find ET's, assuming we have the technology to do so, over incomprehensible distances and billions of years of time, all with varying technologies, or no technology at all. Instead of the romantic idea of casual space travel, perhaps there is no viable method to travel and/or communicate over such vast distances, but this doesn't mean life cannot exist all over the place. It's like an ant colony in the USA wondering if there is another ant colony in South Africa...neither possesses the technology to communicate or travel to see each other, yet both exist. With our science fiction we're tricked into believing SOL travel, etc. will all be possible with the discovery of new physics...but what if humans and other alien life forms are no better off than those two ant colonies?
I don't think the situation is quite that dire, at least where the *known universe* is concerned, and that is what we're discussing here. We also understand a thing or two about how life works and evolves, certainly enough to make some educated guesses about how it may exist elsewhere in the universe. No one is proclaiming knowledge that we do not possess here, but rather pointing out that life, especially intelligent life, is not something that is all that likely to evolve at all, let alone on any particular habitable world. The main issue is likelihood - how likely are we to have intelligent life existing in our vicinity and concurrently with us. All things considered, it just is not likely. I suppose you might compare the odds of this being the case to winning the Power Ball. It could hypothetically happen, but more than likely it will not.
We know how OUR (carbon based) life evolves to an extent but have absolutely no clue what "Life" may involve. For all we know there are flat hydrogen cells in the lakes of Titan and Giant dust guppies that swim through the vacuum between stars.
I'm not implying it is 'dire'...just stating some truth about our knowledge of the Universe. When someone says 'known Universe' we think we know there is about 13.8 billion years of history. Like I said, we don't even 'know' our Solar system that well much less the Universe. And I don't think we should assume there are billions of intelligent beings 'out there' but my position is if it can happen on Earth, and considering there might be ~500 billion planets just in our galaxy multiplied by how many galaxies, it seems more of a rational assumption to assume there are plenty of opportunities for intelligent life to exist...or have existed. Even if the likelihood is 1:1 billion, this still leaves lots of potential...
Do you mean like this, for example: "'Supersonic Tic Tac' UFO stalked US aircraft carrier for days, Pentagon report reveals" http://www.foxnews.com/science/2018/05/31/supersonic-tic-tac-ufo-stalked-us-aircraft-carrier-for-days-pentagon-report-reveals.html EXCERPT "A supersonic UFO shaped like a Tic Tac stalked a U.S. aircraft carrier for days before vanishing into thin air, according to a bombshell Pentagon report. The object, which could reportedly hover in midair and make itself invisible, bamboozled U.S. Navy fighter pilots during a training exercise in the Pacific Ocean."CONTINUED During the very brief time during which man has inhabited this planet, there seem to be too many unexplained archeological wonders & credible sightings to dismiss the likelihood of life somewhere else in the universe IMHO.
Demanding that it does, is almost so absurd that no math will likely ever play out. You may as well demand that 'life' watches Netflix and eats Pizza on Tuesdays, before you'll call it life. In which case, I call this study worthless.
Not really...strange that there is no military confirmation or video of what "The Sun" says happened.
I read about this event in a different news source which I cannot recall at the moment & that news source did provide a brief video of the "Tic Tac" shaped UFO. If I can find that source, I'll post it for you.
The known Universe is what we can see with out telescopes, both optical and radio. We keep finding more and more all the time. And then there is the case of the red shift for the distant galaxies and the blue shift for Andromeda Galaxy. Andromeda is coming to get us !!!
The Grand Architect has probably already stopped by a time or two. Any good Watchmaker would check up on his watch and retune it if necessary. Otherwise He/She/They would not interfere.
We don't know that. And this paper is meaningless. It amounts to nothing more than conjecture. You have taken a leap and accepted an unpublished paper [online publishing is not published!] with no peer review, as gospel truth. That is not how science works. Over the next ten years or so they may gain credibility. But for now it means nothing.
Last night I was able to see Andromeda Galaxy through my tripod mounted elk hunting binos again for the first time in a while. Andromeda is 4 times the size of our own Milky Way and 2.5 billion light years away. So for longer than there has been life on the Earth, Andromeda has been shining down upon it at least, and even longer. Andromeda is visible in the summer and fall, and then disappears into the Sun during the rest of the year. I normally get to see it as hunting season and preseason scouting begins. You can find it by following the pointers in the left "V" of the "W" formed by Cassiopeia. Cassiopeia is opposite the North Star from the Big Dipper.
That is the real irony of Fermi's Paradox. Science: Where are they? Ufologist: Well, here are some interesting reports. Science: No!!! They can't be here!!!! And anyone who says otherwise is a nut! That is the popular logic. I have always found this perplexing. As Stan Friedman says, the question is not whether UFOs are alien spacecrafts. The question is, are any? If there has ever been a landing on earth, just once, then it is at least one of the single most significant historic and scientific facts of all. And who knows what the implications could be, in that event! It could be the most significant fact in all of human history. How can any scientist not be interested in the possibility, no matter how remote? Science is driven by funding. People who ask such questions may not get their next grant. So you don't dare talk about UFOs. What you find is that many scientists will reveal an interest when they near retirement. But silence is the golden rule in mainstream academia. It is a practical matter of money. For that reason, most scientists won't even learn enough about the subject to have a qualified opinion.
