If Trump thinks he can get more than 3% economic growth, he's dreaming

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Josephwalker, Jul 27, 2018.

  1. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    So what? Isn't it obvious, even to you? So since 2000 the government is down trillions of dollars in revenues since the Bush tax cuts because tax revenue have not kept up with GDP growth, and consequently the deficit is trillions of dollars bigger.

    Remember when conservatives pretended the goal was to reduce the deficit? Except when a Republicans is in the WH.
     
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  2. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    donald didn't have Republicans trying to wreck the economy.
     
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  3. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    That's a defense that concedes the point, thank you!

    EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION RISING SHARPLY
    What happens when the economy grows and companies need more workers? Wages rise, especially when the flow of legal and illegal immigrants competing for low- and middle-wage jobs declines. Not surprisingly, that is what we are currently seeing:

    American workers are reaping the benefits of the lowest unemployment rate and best jobs market in decades.​

    President Trump has only been in office for a year and a half.

    Wages and benefits are rising at the fastest pace in a decade.

    This chart tells the story:

    [​IMG]

    Higher wages, more jobs, lower taxes. Don't let the Democrats and the Never-Trumpers screw this up!
     
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  4. Iriemon

    Iriemon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    These metrics tell the story:

    U.S. household income posts record surge in 2015, poverty falls
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-poverty-idUSKCN11J1PP

    U.S. middle-class incomes reached highest-ever level in 2016, Census Bureau says
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...360011663b4_story.html?utm_term=.f79c53f87575

    After inheriting the worst recession in 80 years, and even with a Republican congress trying to wreck the economy, record growth and levels of income under Obama.

    Let's pray donald and the TWS don't screw it up.
     
  5. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    We had record revenues with a 15% increase in 2007 alone and a paltry $161B deficit. Yes Republicans cared about the deficit.

    Remember when Democrats cared about deficits? No.
     
  6. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    The Democrats took the Congress a year before the recession began and with a good economy. Why do you keep misrepresenting the facts?
     
  7. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    The Democrats, including Senator Obama, took the Congress a year before the recession began and with a good economy. Why do you keep misrepresenting the facts?
     
  8. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Oh now you're against economic growth, we should raise capgains taxes to stop economic growth and cut tax revenues just so you can take more percent income from those of whom you are envious.. How absurd.
     
  9. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    When you Claim cut Obama cut spending and it was all his meager econonomic growth that cut spending.
     
  10. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    We are over 4% now with economist predicting even better to come. Tax cuts, trade deals deregulation and a business friendly president start feeding on each other and you may be surprised what this economy is capable of with the right government in place getting out of the way.
     
  11. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    Thats 1 Q, last Q was 2.2 before that 2.3 .

    Obama had 5+% for 1 Q.

    ANd what forcasts :

    https://knoema.com/qhswwkc/us-gdp-growth-forecast-2018-2022-and-up-to-2060-data-and-charts

    3% would be nice for 2018 but nowhere close to paying for the cuts .


    Could you give some links to those economists?

    Yes GDP should go up, after all trump is pumping 1.5-2trillion into the economy not really suprising GDP is going up.
    Yet thats just fueling the debt as the deficit is going out of control if the growth doesnt reach 5+% .
     
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  12. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trickle-down_economics

    Trump thinks that by giving tax breaks mainly to companies and the rich this will improve the middle class. Thats what bush tried , it didnt work then.




    https://www.thebalance.com/trickle-down-economics-theory-effect-does-it-work-3305572


    Trickle-down economics says that the Reagan and Bush tax cuts should have helped people at all income levels. Instead, the opposite occurred. Income inequality worsened. Between 1979 and 2005, after-tax household income rose 6 percent for the bottom fifth. That sounds great until you see what happened for the top fifth. Their income increased by 80 percent. The top 1 percent saw their income triple. Instead of trickling down, it appears that prosperity trickled up.


    A 2015 paper by researchers for the International Monetary Fund argues that there is no trickle-down effect as the rich get richer:

    f the income share of the top 20 percent (the rich) increases, then GDP growth actually declines over the medium term, suggesting that the benefits do not trickle down. In contrast, an increase in the income share of the bottom 20 percent (the poor) is associated with higher GDP growth.[5]


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jul/21/offshore-wealth-global-economy-tax-havens

    Wealth doesn't trickle down – it just floods offshore, research reveals


    If trump/gop wanted to make their rich frienxds richer then yes, this is the perfect policy. But trump (at least claims) he wanted to help the middle class and the "forgotten" aka poor. It didnt work in the past, I doubt it will work now .


    Depends on how you look at it of course, in this case Ttrump/GOP also claim to want to reduce/eleminate the deficit. Meaning you need a lot of growth (5-7% yearly) to pay for the tax cuts to not increase the deficit without changing policy.


    Again this is history repeating itself;"starve the beast" to then claim spending is out of control and cut even more into health care/education/pensions/welfare/... . Trump is being a very generic and predictable republican in this matter.
     
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  13. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Actually as with the Bush43 tax rate cuts ALL tax brackets were cut and millions at the bottom had their tax liabilities totally eliminated and it worked quite well.

    It did help people at all levels, full employment and rising incomes but the main goal of supply-side economics is increasing government tax revenues through growth not high tax rates. It is not a function of supply-side economics to "equal incomes". That is socialist trickle up economics which as we saw from 2007 through about 2015 does not work.

    The goal of supply-side economics is NOT to ensure that people do not get richer..............geez that's nonsense.


    Just more canards, want to get money back then repatriate it as we are now doing.
     
  14. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Yes on the back of negative growth.
     
  15. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    "Donald Trump is optimistic about US GDP growth. “I see no reason why we don’t go to 4, 5, even 6 percent,” Trump told his cabinet in December 2017, according to Bloomberg. Many observers found the idea ludicrous, given that few economists thought growth of the world’s largest economy could get above 3%, and many thought it would be much lower.

    Yet according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, we may already be living in Trump’s fantasy world. As of Feb. 1, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates that GDP is growing at a rate of 5.4%."

    https://qz.com/1196041/a-bullish-ec...s-gdp-is-growing-at-5-4-in-the-first-quarter/
     
  16. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    Nope Q before was 4.6% growth, Q after 2%

    Same in 2011 4.6% growth

    Again we will see what 2018 as a whole brings.
     
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  17. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    The 4-6% is yearly growth.

    last year trump got 2.2% first Q this year was also 2.2% .

    One reason given is that people/companies fear the tarrifs and thus they exported a lot more then normal driving up exports and of course the tax cuts that pump money into the economy while inflating deficit.

    We will see if Q3 is again 4+%

    If he wants 4% growth for 2018 he would need almost 5% the next 2 Q's.
     
  18. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    And the quarter before those two was NEGATIVE, as I said we were coming out o negative growth again. We expect 4%-6% after negative growth. We were trying to get into a full recovery and growth accelerates coming out of such negative growth.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2018
  19. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    It fueled the deficit led to bad spending and evetually helped to cause the 2008 crisis. If you think the middle class came out of all that better ...
     
  20. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    Only if you think 6 to 9 months is 'right before'. But ok Q4 13 4% growth and no negative growth in 2.5years before.

    History simply doesnt agree with that, yes sometimes but othertimes it doesnt, 2001 for example

    2006 is another example of 5+% growth and no negative growth before.

    Again it happens that 1 Q is high, you need to confirm that with the rest of the year.
     
  21. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    Yes I consider it right before the blip in growth
    [​IMG]


    Yes it does after negative or even low growth we generally expect higher growth as the economy rebounds. And as I have said repeatedly the mistake the Republicans made in 2001 was phasing in the tax rate reductions over 6 years instead of making them effective immediately which they did in 2003 and you see the results.
    [​IMG]
     
  22. Bluesguy

    Bluesguy Well-Known Member Donor

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    It lowered the deficit to a paltry $161B. How did that cause the 2008 crisis a year after the Democrats took back the Congress and budget control?
     
  23. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    He has two more years to achieve his goals and if he even gets close he will have four more years after that to achieve his goals. That's why Democrats are trying to put every roadblock they can in front of his economic agenda.
     
  24. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    Oh so trump meant 4-6% gdp growth by 2020?

    Of course just like republicans did with obama.
     
  25. k995

    k995 Well-Known Member

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    As I said, its clear that higher then 4% growth happens even without negative growth before, your own picture shows that several times.
     

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