So, the next economic crisis may not be far ahead. But how will it be - a deflation (another real estate bubble pop, for example) or an inflation turmoil? Stock market crash, public debt crash? Will it be this year, 5 or 15 years in the future? What do you think?
Interesting poll question, and I chose the response that "the financial institutions" would balance things out. Actually, what central banks, like the Federal Reserve System (ours), the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, etc., have done is to completely manipulate and corrupt what used to be a free-market economic system throughout the world, until sometime in 2008. If you doubt it, reconsider "Quantitative Easing I", "Quantitative Easing II", "Operation Twist", "Quantitative Easing III", etc., etc., etc. Going forward from 2008, the central banks control everything of any real importance in the world's economy -- EVERYTHING. If there is a coming economic "collapse", it will be carefully engineered and timed by these same central banks -- primarily the Federal Reserve (the "Fed") and the ECB (European Central Bank). Only two countries in the world do not have their economies dictated and smothered by central banks -- Russia, and China. Those countries have 'central banks', but the banks serve the government -- NOT the other way around.... BTW, guess who has a Ph.D in Economics...? Vladimir Putin! . The best way to manage central bankers....
We will never see abolishment of the Federal Reserve central bank combine, or a return to a Gold Standard. Welcome to the deliciously hellish world described by George Orwell in his masterpiece-for-all-time, "1984"....
We'll never go back to a hard asset backed currency. There's just no way to manipulate it to smooth out the peaks and valleys of the economic cycles. I think there won't be any major crises. It looks to me like the Federal Reserve has monetary policy figured out and can respond to events. In my opinion, we still have greater risk of deflation for now. In the future, debt caused inflation is a threat.
Gotta admit, gold bullion is a bit hard on both the teeth, and digestion, but trying to dine on imaginary 'money' created in some economy-manipulating central banker's imagination isn't what we should be using, either.... ."Also, squeeze out another trillion bucks if you need to... it's easier than taking a crap!"
Over the years, I've become less worried about the cause of a crisis because from what I've seen, they are usually of the manufactured type. And usually, they are manufactured to effectively protect something, or someone, or a group from competition. If we go back to the "bubble" in housing, for example. Really, the folks who were "exposed" were the established banks who were losing market to the upstarts and of course we can't have that, so, they got squashed. It was methodical. Does anyone here truly believe that mr Schumer wasn't directly responsible for causing the initial run when he personally knocked over Indiemac? The rest is history, it simply needed a shove. And all those nice folks who were digging themselves out of the underclass, and becoming rock solid middle class folks were suddenly left holding a very empty bag. The old adage, "it's fine, unless it helps the other guy", seems to be exactly what the dynamic that most often, now, disrupts the economy and causes irreparable harm to it, and the people in this country. Ask why Obama didn't go after Amazon, even though they were destroying traditional brick and mortar? Ask why that type of economic consolidation was allowed, and worse, enabled by federal regulation? And now that Amazon has become the vested interest that it now is, is anyone attempting to dilute their influence just on the off chance that they unwind? How about the information merchants at facebook and twitter, et al? Is their influence sufficient to become the lever from which economic chaos is introduced? We saw what concerted effort introduced via the social media had influencing our economy over the past 5 or so years. Do they become the disrupter? They tout themselves in that vain. So, I vote for outside influence.(other)
drluggit, your post is very insightful and brought to mind a thought that has remained in my thinking in regard to the consolidation of commerce and economics. I have the impression that there is a move afoot that has aided in creating an environment where only multi-national corporations are the only ones left and that is monopolistic. The bogus show that was perpetrated and convinced the majority of the population of this country, middle-class and poor, that everything in the business field is A-OK, when moves were being made to create and facilitate an environment of total monopoly, cronyism, nepotism, and political turmoil fostered by an attack-dog media of both sides who shield the dirty deeds. I could be wrong, but this is my thought and idea on the subject.
I think You forgot Stagnation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_stagnation as well a Stagflation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation One thing fershur, working people pay for it while the 1% just experience slower growth or a loss they feel in a numbers sheet only. Not their home or their diet. I still like Huey's solution. The message starts at 0:25! The picnic BBQ Moi r > g Make Pay Its' Fair Share!
I choose it's hard to tell. But at the same time I think I have some idea(s) of what is going to look like. I am going to make a bold statement, I think that the market is going to explode to the upside possibly to the point the DOW hit's 30k in the next 1-2 years. The central banks will own the game as time goes on because they will become the biggest mover and they are now of the belief that they can drive it as high as they like. The media might call it the Trump trade but what it really is the Central banks will ever more be buying stocks off the stock market and become large shareholders as they already are in some cases. This will become very clear once the Fed partakes in this game and I am highly sure they are going to do this at some point. As for what sets it off to a crash, my guess is just no one left to buy or the central banks want it crash at that time. What will compound the crash are likely the auto loans and other debt being done to the same lack of standards we saw before the crash of 08. Though really Home loans aren't in that much better shape due to the skyrocketing prices in a number of areas reaching nearly bobble like prices along with much of the same bundled security junk still going on. It will likely end in a flash crash before the end of 2020, why I can't be sure but because of it being called the "Trump trade" it will likely be blamed on him even if it's all the central bankers around the world that are really at fault. It might also bring about a one world money system if it's truly a harsh crash with the thought that somehow making the system even more centralized than it already is will somehow fix it. But I don't have a collage degree in economics so to liberals what I say doesn't mean jack. Instead they will buy the word of a guy with a fancy PHD degree who was only good at copying to memory what some dude that doesn't have the first clue as to how the real world works wrote in some text books. Not saying I know everything or that I am some great study of economics but I know what's currently going on can't be maintained for a very long time like some people think it can and that if it crashes it will likely be very harsh due to the many tricks the central banks had to use to get us into a recovery.
Word has it that there are 4.3 Trillion USA Petro-Dollars out there floating and there are some nasty people who want to see most of them dumped on the markets in 2018 in order to significantly devalue the USA dollar. I don't think that their plan will succeed but...... the more people are aware of it the better....... especially if we become informed on what options are available to President TRump and his team. The number 4.3 Trillion is verified in post #19 here: http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/jamie-baillie-nova-scotia-israel-and-jordan.506627/
A gifted Christian had a dream about a Hurricane of Money... that sure fits with devaluation of the dollar. It is at the 17 minute mark in this video... and I have attempted to start you right at that point......
Dennis it's stories like this that makes me want deflation. If we could just deflate the dollar, and erase existing dollars from existence, as these extra dollars are being dumped on the market, we could maintain the official number of 2 Trillion dollars in circulation while zapping the extras. Just me with my simplistic economic ideas...
I voted for Inflation being the next economic disaster. It can't be deflation. I want deflation. We need some to get the dollar back in value.
Then again Dennis I could be wrong. I was watching a show about banking and they said that removing money from the economy can result in a depression. So, I don't know the correct path for dealing with a flood of money.
The American central bank, the Federal Reserve System, took a path starting ten years ago that produced enormous amounts of new, imaginary money, squashed interest rates (even though demand for money was very strong), and one 'quantitative easing' fraud balloon after another over YEARS. This is an economic theory that desperately relies on GROWTH, no matter how fraudulently it is generated. Now, the small cancer cells in the economy have exploded into yet another gigantic bubble of over-valued crap, which is backed by nothing but MORE imagination. My advice? Get OUT of debt, and STAY out of debt. Pay off every debt and loan you have, and live within your means! If you have enough cash on hand to buy a 'gold coin' -- DON'T DO IT. Instead, buy a used pump shotgun and a used high-powered revolver, some ammunition for each, and six months worth of canned food. Then, wait. This orgy of grotesque over-valuation won't last too much longer, and when the sh*t hits the fan, it'll make 2008 look like a church picnic....
I was shocked to learn that 70% of the money in the world are US dollars (please, see video)! If that number is correct, this is mind blowing. That could just mean Quantitative Easing or "helicopter money" that the FED was giving away practically for free (close to zero interest).
I was in Quito, Ecuador from January of 2001 to August of 2002. My wife's nation had abandoned their own Sucre and had switched over to USA Dollars. But I did not know that seventy percent of the world's money supply was measured in USA Dollars. That is astonishing.
if NK is going down we could see a shortage of goods, tumbling of sales, business revenues down, sharemarket down, people losing their jobs, not able to afford mortgages... how are we doing?
