Is Trump ready to give up on his trade war?

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by ronv, Sep 12, 2019.

  1. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Good luck! Opinions on how an election that is over a year away aren't based in anything resembling reality. Nobody can predict which politician will have to stand in front of a mic with a spouse at their side, apologizing for the mistake of accidentally being caught in a hotel room blowing coke off the ass of a hooker. We've got hundreds of those types of things to get through before the election.
     
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  2. Aleksander Ulyanov

    Aleksander Ulyanov Well-Known Member

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    Instead you'll be paying for the daughter of some Trump supporting and Tariff favored CEO to study Medieval art at the Sorbonne. Aren't Republicans wondrous?
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019
  3. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Actually despite all the predictions, overall, import prices are DOWN, not up.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the costs of imports actually went down in August. In fact, the price index for U.S. imports declined 2.0 percent from August 2018 to August 2019.

    [​IMG]

    Just as we suspected, despite the tariffs, we are paying LESS for imports, not more.
     
    struth likes this.
  4. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Did you forget this already?

    upload_2019-9-13_17-29-10.png
    I was just looking at new dryers. Up about $100 from a year and a half ago.
    Don't know if it's a left over from the steel tariffs or a combination of steel tariffs and the cost of timers made in China.
     
  5. Socratica

    Socratica Well-Known Member

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    Net exports stopped contributing to U.S. GDP since 1972...
     
  6. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    I'll file that in my trivia file. But I think it was 1971.
     
  7. Socratica

    Socratica Well-Known Member

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    1971...

    Why would Trump give up on a trade war when trade has stopped contributing to U.S. Gross Domestic Product nearly 50 years ago?
     
  8. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Because he is going to lose the election in 2020 if he doesn't.
     
  9. Socratica

    Socratica Well-Known Member

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    Why would he lose if his re-election chances are based on how the economy performs and effects of the tariffs on the economy are minimal at best...
     
  10. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Banned

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    China has announced that it will exclude imports of U.S. soybeans, pork and other farm goods from additional trade war tariffs, opening the door for significant purchases of agricultural products.

    Maybe Trump's disastrous trade war with China is ending. Wall Street think so.

    That stocks can stay so strong even before we enter the historically best six months for stocks (November through April) of the calendar year tells me they’re poised to move higher, at least in the months ahead, for three reasons:

    1. Recession may be coming, but it isn’t right around the corner.

    2. The Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates whether it wants to or not.

    3. Investors expect Trump to fold on trade.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3...tock-market-is-heading-even-higher-2019-09-12
     
  11. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Because the counter tariffs have hurt the people that gave him the election last time.
    And his next round will hit consumer items that the average joe won't like.
    It's not so much the overall effect on the economy as it is the people getting hit. Cleaver those Chinese. :)
     
  12. opion8d

    opion8d Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The inscrutability of the Asian mind is overrated, except when it's not. That makes China a tough call. China's behavior is a more reliable indication of intent. When Trump left the TPP China took over the economic reins for the Asian Pacific Rim. That was what the TPP hoped to prevent. So now what? Anyone's opinion after this (including mine) is speculative.

    Clearly, China wants to rule its backyard without interference from the U.S. Some of China's actions, like the sudden appearance of islands in the China Sea do not speak of capitulation to the United States. China's diplomatic and economic actions are both quiet and effective. China has been inking global trade and economic deals and alliances for decades. I don't know if anyone knows the extent of China's web of influence.

    Given China's long term commitments and objectives make the outcome of this little trade war hard to predict. That's the inscrutability factor in the ointment. In my observation, however, it's clear that China's long term (decades) plan is to arrest political, economic, and military leadership from the United States. China will play those cards when it comes to Trump's impetuous trade war and much larger considerations. So who will blink?

    Nobody will surrender until there is an arrangement where both sides can save face and declare victory -- or work a deal. Trump is like an Asian in one respect, he must protect his ego and save face. China is playing a much bigger game of world dominance and their leader has a lifetime appointment to office. Trump isn't up to this game. He is a day trader, owned by his base, and in way over his head.

    Obama was playing China's game and winning with TPP. But he was, like China, a long term thinker. Does China want someone else in the White House like Obama. It doesn't seem likely.
     
  13. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Except that consumer prices are quite stable, not undergoing tariff driven inflation as a bunch of "economists" claimed they would.
    It's actually continuing to strengthen.
    China is coming here for negotiations, Trump isn't going there. If they come up with a good deal, we'll take it, but, if not, Trump can hit them with more tariffs, and they will have to lower their prices even further to cover the tariffs, just as they have been doing for a year now.

    [​IMG]

    Red China's gotta eat

    [​IMG]

    Everybody, Trump's Sun Tzu fighting
    Tariffs were fast as lightning
    For Xi, it was a little bit frightening
    But Trump fought with expert timing
    .​

    The South China Morning Post reported Red "China has announced that it will exclude imports of US soybeans, pork and other farm goods from additional trade war tariffs, opening the door for significant purchases of agricultural products."

    Red China's hong-gree.

    Chairman Xi can blame Sun Tzu.

    Red China's annual trade deficit of $350 billion is unacceptable. This is not free market enterprise. This is dumping.

    The Chinese are hong-gree.

    That is a bigger problem for Chairman Xi than Hong Kong is.
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2019
  14. Sleep Monster

    Sleep Monster Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    "Red China's hong-gree." Do you think that's cute, or what? Or do you bother to really read your own posts? Such blatant mocking bigotry is rare.

    Your price graph is not as relevant as my own shopping experience, zorro. The things I need have all gone up in price, some nearly double.
     
  15. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    Yes, it really IS, all about you. Bummer that American's are suffering from tariff driven inflation like you hoped.

    No worries, it's now a bidding war!

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    An astute point!

    [​IMG]
     
  17. struth

    struth Well-Known Member

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    How is it disastrous if we win? Well maybe all this winning is disastrous to the DNC's hopes in 2020 to turn the United States into a "democratic" Socialist nation like Venezuela
     
  18. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    You are right! Profundity combined with irony with the the right amount of satirical wit!

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Socratica

    Socratica Well-Known Member

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    How is it not the overall economic effect... Tariffs literally effect the economy... Did you not know this?
     
  20. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Because the overall effect is not large.
    Are you ignoring the effect the counter tariffs have on the people that gave Trump the election?
     
  21. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    It looks to me like we are due for a positive contribution!

    [​IMG]

    China has backed off on its tariffs on US soy and pork.

    Soy and pork are protein, which is a chronic problem for China. Their middle class literally measures its affluence by how many nights a week they eat pork and the lower classes and villages use pork as a celebratory meal.

    By lifting the tariffs, "Long Game" China has just admitted it cannot produce enough protein for national consumption, both as a staple or as a preferred meat.

    What’s the problem with China’s agricultural industry? They do not have enough arable land to grow the volume of soy they need; and up to 60% of China’s pigs are infected with the flu.

    Chinese officials are both incapable of enforcing a quarantine and too corrupt to stop the spread of the flu.

    This is the underlying economic and organizational civilian support system of the Red Army and the structural and organizational condition of the military and government.
     

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