It looks like the Fall Surge is coming

OK, so, here we go. An uptick again, which is likely to get worse due to Fall temperatures pushing people indoors, school reopenings, the holidays, the election...

 

Didn't you hear? Herd identity is already here.

 

The graphs do need to take account of number of tests being carried out. Eg, UK were doing around 20,000 tests per day, now doing ten times that per day. Though there is an uptick in cases

 

Garbage in, garbage out.

Unreliable and unproved tests guide the gullible. Life goes on.

 

Oh my God, are you still one of those who think that it's because of more tests? Percentage of positive tests and number of hospitalizations and ultimately deaths go up too, and neither of those indicators is due to increased number of testing.

 

People are likely getting either complacent or tired of living like this. I for one am questioning the value of living my life vs the risk of being a statistic.

 

Tire of living how? What particular element of a changed way of doing things is terrible for you?

 

Stock up on moisturizer before there's a shortage due to the endless hand-wringing.

 

I spent some time in a Transylvanian village in the late 90's. It was maybe 500 people. I was there during the winter, and there was talk about how many suicides would occur that season. Every year, some number of lonely men, usually widowers, would kill themselves in the dark of winter. The social and physical isolation resulted in despair and ended in suicide.

Lockdowns create that same physical and social isolation for many and we are heading into winter.

 

um isolation

 

The main problem is with the unregulated and untested groups of people that nobody wants to crack down on for fear of political backlash. And yes, I am referring to the homeless population and illegal immigrants, who are allowed to roam maskless and free instead of forced quarantine like the government should have done to them months ago.

 

As compared to these people…

Suicide by Trump Herman Caine will attest to that...oh wait!

 

Your graphs are wrong. Do you really think that Europe is seeing more positive cases per week from Sep 1st than they have done since the start of the epidemic? (From your graph, 400 new cases per million peak near start compared 500 Sep 1st) UK is now finding 6000 new positive cases per day. At the peak when number of tests is taken into account the new cases would have been around 100,000 per Day. Now extrapolate those figures to the whole population. This is the same across whole of Europe

 

Yes, sure, let's just stick our heads in the sand and pretend that cases are not going up. That will work. I mean, the silly public health and governmental officials in Europe who are all confirming that they are seeing a true increase in cases and are considering new containment measures are just full of .... and most likely just want to bring down Trump, right? Yeah, sure, sure, pal. The virus? Not a problem. It's the graphs that are wrong. [Insert sarcastic rolling eyes here]

 

The MAIN problem? That's what you think? The main one? Okaaaay....

 

What! Who said the cases are not going up now! Your graph shows 500 cases per million per week on April 1st for Europe going up to 600 on May 1st. The true number of cases were many more than that. Your graphs are wrong. Your graphs just show actual positive test results, your graph does not take into account the low number of tests carried out early on.

The estimate of cases just for UK in May was in excess of 1000 cases per million per week yet your graph shows 600 for whole of Europe! Notice "100,000 cases a day at peak" just for UK

 

Who even cares if the cases are going up? Oh yeah, the fear mongers in the media and the bureaucrats vested in the CARES Act.

The virus is everywhere, and the PCR tests notoriously inaccurate. Let the Bogey Man rule!

 

Huh, dear, my numbers are 500 per million inhabitants and yours, this 4,501 are just plain cases per day. Pay attention, will you? Gee! And one country may have a bigger number but other European countries will have a lower number so the overall AVERAGE will be 500 per million per day. It's not cumulative because it is a per-million average. Some countries will be adding fewer cases but will be adding big populations which will bring down the average for the entire continent.

And "100,000 cases a day at peak" is a totally absurd number. Do you actually think that the UK is having 100,000 NEW cases per day? LOL. That would put them at #1 in the world and the first country to breach that number, when even India is having at most 83,000 new cases per day. Do notice that your number talks about... an ESTIMATE done back in March!!! Which never materialized.

 

You clearly struggle with data! Yesterday India recorded 90,000 positive tests out of the 963,683 people TESTED in that 24 hours. Most people are not tested! HENCE many more people are positive but not tested. Do you really think that everyone in India who were infected have been identified?Which bit don't you understand?

Yes, UK would have got 100,000 positive cases per day in May that would have tested positive IF they were TESTED but there were not enough test kits, 20,000 tests per day. UK are now recording 6000 cases per day out of in excess of 200,000 tests.

My graph came from the government site, where did your's come from?

 

By the way, comparing estimates then with real confirmed cases now is misleading because even with increased testing you can still miss a lot of asymptomatic or mild cases so the estimate now would be a lot higher too.

But anyway, I'm glad that you at least are seeing that cases are going up, which is my point. I wasn't the one making the graphs, I merely reproduced them, and I'm not interested in disputing the accuracy to the smallest detail as long as we all see that the numbers in Europe and the US (and Canada) are going up again, which is my point.

 

So, I'm the one not understanding data? You think that if the UK alone has more cases PER MILLION than what my graph says for the whole of Europe, my graph must be wrong. You seem to ignore that if say, the UK has 1,000 cases per million but say, Germany has 100 cases per million (hypothetical numbers; let's suppose the UK and Germany have the same population), if you add the UK + Germany you get 1,100 cases per million... when no, you'd get 550 cases per million. LOL. And you say I'M the one who struggles with numbers.... Too funny!

And also, of course I know that not all are tested... which is the point I made in post #20. YOU are the one comparing apples and oranges... comparing an estimate to confirmed cases.

Where do my graph comes from? I believe CNN. I get these newsletters in my mail box. I opened one, saw the graph, took a screen shot. Then deleted the newsletter. I get newsletters from Apple+, the New York Times, CNN, Yodel, so I don't specifically remember which one had this particular graph. If you insist I can see if my Trash still has the newsletter and try to recover it. Hang on.

OK, found it. It's from The New York Times, quoting as sourcing, Johns Hopkins University and the World Bank.

 

Countries in Europe were hit at the same time! Yet you think that after the 4 month lockdown Europe are getting more daily positive cases now than we did in the peak of the pandemic!

 

I can't link to an article since it's a newsletter but I'm copying and pasting what the newsletter said:

The fall surge is here

A coronavirus testing site in Bismark, N.D., this month.Tom Stromme/The Bismarck Tribune, via Associated Press
Public health experts have long been worried that the end of the summer — as some students returned to school and the weather cooled — would bring a surge in coronavirus cases.

That surge appears to have begun.

The number of new daily confirmed cases in the U.S. has jumped more than 15 percent in the past 10 days. It is the sharpest increase since the late spring, and it has arrived just before the official start of autumn, which is today.


By The New York Times | Sources: Johns Hopkins University, World Bank
Unlike the earlier summer surge in the U.S., this spike also coincides with a rising number of cases in other affluent countries, like Canada and much of Europe. The increases appeared to play a role in yesterday’s stock-market decline, as investors feared the need for new lockdowns.

In Britain today, Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to to announce new restrictions on nightlife. In the Czech Republic yesterday, the health minister resigned. In Madrid, the authorities imposed new restrictions on almost one million residents. Across Europe, officials are hoping that these targeted restrictions will reduce new cases — and allow them to avoid imposing full lockdowns again.

The U.S. continues to be among the most vulnerable countries, because it never crushed the spread of the virus after the original outbreak. (In the chart above, you can see how much higher the red line, for the U.S., has been than the other lines since April.)

Coming weeks may bring new problems, too: The cooler fall weather will start to complicate outdoor socializing. “And if pandemic-fatigued families travel to spend the holidays together, it will get worse in late fall and winter,” The Times’s Jeneen Interlandi wrote in an article previewing the rest of the year.

There has been one big piece of good news. People infected today are roughly 30 percent to 50 percent less likely to die than those in the early spring, Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, estimates.

Still, the death toll is horrific. Today, the number of confirmed U.S. deaths will most likely surpass 200,000.

 

When did I say that??? I said there is a Fall surge! I said "an uptick again." I never said it's worse than the peak. I said it may get worse in the future (worse than today) because of the temperatures, elections, holidays, etc.

Now, I'm just saying three things:
1. Your original dispute was that because my numbers FOR THE WHOLE OF EUROPE and PER MILLION inhabitants are lower than the numbers "for the UK alone" my numbers were wrong, which is entirely laughable and absurd since like I said, even if ONE country has higher numbers PER MILLION if other countries have a lower number PER MILLION the average will be brought down. Gee! And you say I'm the one who has problems with numbers. Will you please address this? I think the right way to address is to say "I'm sorry, I stand corrected and I apologize." I'm waiting.
2. You tried to compare a graph on plain new cases with a graph with casers PER MILLION. Will you please address this? I think the right way to address is to say "I'm sorry, I stand corrected and I apologize." I'm waiting.
3. You can't compare an estimate to confirmed cases because even the confirmed cases now, despite increased testing, are still a subset of the numbers (in the US that tests a lot, for example, the CDC still estimates that we're missing 9 out of 10 cases although I personally think it's fewer than that, for various reasons I've explained elsewhere). If you want to use an estimate for comparison, then you need to use another estimate for the current cases, which will necessarily be higher than the confirmed cases, or else you're comparing apples and oranges.

And again, that's NOT what I'm getting at. I NEVER suggested that this Fall surge is worse than the May peak. I just suggested that we're seeing a Fall surge, and it's not just me... as you can see by the full text of my newsletter, health officials in the UK, Czech Republic, and Spain are saying the same thing. Are they wrong? You have already acknowledged that cases are going up, so what's exactly your point about these graphs?

I'll tell you what: most likely both your graph and my graph are correct; just, they approach the issue from different standpoints and looking at different parameters. Your graph looks at the UK only with number of cases. My graph looks at the whole of Europe, in cases per million.

The only wrong thing here, is that YOU misinterpreted what my graph was saying and came up with the ABSURD notion that if ONE country has a higher CASE PER MILLION it means that the graph for the continent with a lower CASE PER MILLION is wrong. This is not true.

And by the way, Johns Hopkins University is HIGHLY reliable. So I stand behind what their graph is showing.

 

Yes, "The number of new daily confirmed cases" just as I wrote in post 16. That figure does not give actual number of positive cases. The number of confirmed cases is directly related to number of tests. In UK we were only testing 20,000 people per day in April/May giving rise to around 4700 confirmed cases per day. If we were able to test as many people then as we do now that figure would have been around 100,000 confirmed cases per day. Hence post number 3

Your graph that you blindly posted would imply to anyone who can't be bothered to think for themselves that the virus is currently more rampant now than it was in the peak of the first wave and that is wrong and leaves you open to the allegation that you are fear mongering. Europe currently has less than 10% (more like 6%) daily positive new cases than the positive cases it had at the peak. But it is rising just as I wrote in post 3