Looks like Trump is staging a comeback

It didn't look so good for Trump after the 2022 midterms, with lots of the candidates he backed losing, and the red wave fizzling out. However, it seems that this is now all forgotten, and Trump is reaffirming his grip on the 2024 GOP nomination:

https://www.axios.com/2023/03/01/trump-polling-february

"By the numbers: A new Emerson poll found Trump with a 30-point lead (55%-25%) against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — up from a 26-point lead (55%-29%) over DeSantis in Emerson's January survey.

• Trump wins a whopping 72% support among Republicans with a high school degree or less.
• Emerson's poll also found Trump leading Biden, 46%-42%. DeSantis trailed Biden, 44%-40%."

He also extended his lead over DeSantis in the CPAC straw poll compared to last year.

A few things come to mind:
1) Fox News jumping back onto the Trump train, in particular with Tucker's 1/6 video release. This helps Trump, and hurts DeSantis. It will be interesting to see how DeSantis responds when asked about the 1/6 issue.
2) Trump is campaigning, DeSantis is not. So far, the DeSantis strategy to stay silent and let Trump self-destruct has worked. However, Trump is not self-destructing. I wonder how long DeSantis can stay on the sidelines without losing more steam.
3) The CPAC was a Trump conference. Only Trumpers there. I am not sure if DeSantis was smart by playing chicken and not showing up. He gives the impression that he is scared of the fight.
4) It seems just about impossible for Republicans to shake the Trump addiction. They know he isn't good for the party, yet, they keep coming back to him for more. Old habits are hard to break.

 

I don't know. CPAC was filled with MAGA supporters and they were less this year than last year or two. That being said, getting 62% of the vote of MAGA supporters in that poll is not exactly telling. And thw whole CPAC convention was for his benefit. It is why they did not invite other conservatives to the event who have been overtly critical of Trump. It was all staged like a bad Oscars Night.

Fox News got caught with their pants down. They needed something to try to get the conservatives to trust them again. Enter Tucker whose real job is not for DJT, but to continue the same, old tired argument not to trust anyone but their argument. This is the second conspiracy theory in their minefield, the constant lies that the government is "out to get you" while playing victimhood. Trump will jump all over this, but it won't help him because he has no policy and we want revenge to anyone and everyone who has been disloyal to him.

DeSantis and Sen. Tim Scott are not yet campaigning, but this is an unusual campaign cycle. Gov. DeSantis is doing all the things he needs to do to get ready for the campaign and he is building his base for that, especially money. He is trying out what works and what doesn't before he jumps in. Sen. Scott may jump in, but I don't think he will. He will not sign that "loyalty" pledge at all and knows that if Trump loses, he won't either the pledge. BTW, DeSantis was never invited to CPAC for that very reason.

The real campaigning has not started yet and that won't happen until later this fall when we know who is actually campaigning and who is not. And I think to DeSantis's advantage is to jump into the race late in the fall when Trump will be desperate for money, like he is now. Most GOP MEGA donors are steering far away from him and the RNC in general. They want a Tim Scott or a DeSantis to run. It is easier for them.

Finally, the GOP is in a love affair with Trump. The GOP is the abused spouse who keeps going back to the abuser time and time again hoping they will change even though he won't. It is all about power, not country for the GOP. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

DeSantis isn't even running yet, right? Seems too early to even worry about.

 

Look at the bright side-- how long can future President for Life Trump's life, really last? Another decade? Maybe less, if heir apparent, Tucker Carlson, gets tired of waiting.

 

Hopefully people will start to come to their senses, but I won't place any bets on that.

 

Though I am not a follower of Tim Scott's career, my initial hunch would be that he would realize that he couldn't win, this year; but oftentimes, running in a Primary is more about either lifting the visibility of certain ideas, to the national stage or, I would suspect in Rep. Scott's case, getting more name recognition, and laying the groundwork for a future, victorious campaign.

The main thing he has to decide, is can he run without either being eaten alive, or pissing off, Trump? His being black, he may (with fairly good reason) feel, might shield him from the worst of Trump's ire, especially if Trump doesn't view him as a real threat. In fact, one of Scott's aspirations, for this Primary, may be to get chosen by Trump (or DeSantis) as their running mate. Republican Vice Presidential candidate Pence had been a symbol for the religious. Scott would be intended to assuage doubts, among Independents, of Republican racism.

 

Not sure it matters since I have seen zero coverage on Fox about the Dominion lawsuit (that's from the top), and so far, nothing on Newsmax either about this. Their viewers are in a siloed echo chamber and now they have the Jan 6th "cherry picked" footage to rant and spin all day long. They seem 100% committed to flog Trump's whitewash and his base demands it.

With a possible entrance of a dem leaning 3rd party national candidate, say Gabbard and say funded by dark money from any authoritarian country or even the Trump Camp themselves, it's could nip away enough votes from Biden to make things rather interesting. Lots of ways this thing can play out but one solid guarantee is Trump with have his MAGA base locked tight. Dangerous times.

 

The reason Trump is so popular is because so many people are fed up with our present government.

 

Sandy Shanks said: ↑
Here is hoping either Trump or DeSantis become the Republican nominee for the Presidency in 2024.

Trump is promising revenge if elected. “I am your retribution.” He is declaring war on members of his own party who he calls RINOS.

DeSantis, despite his disingenuous calls for freedom, is increasing the role of state government.
***********************************************************************************************************************************************

If either becomes the nominee, we are pretty much assured that Republicans will lose again. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016. The Republican Party lost elections in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Every Trump-endorsed election denier in a major election lost in 2022.

CNN reports, "The same fundamental dynamic that decided the 2016 Republican presidential primaries is already resurfacing as the 2024 contest takes shape.

"As in 2016, early polls of next year’s contest show the Republican electorate is again sharply dividing about former President Donald Trump along lines of education. In both state and national surveys measuring support for the next Republican nomination, Trump is consistently running much better among GOP voters without a college education than among those with a four-year or graduate college degree."

Is anyone surprised by that? You shouldn't be. Grassroots Trump Republicans lack the skills and knowledge to deal with the issues. Despite Trump's crimes (lead a failed insurrection effort to overthrow the elected government, stole hundreds of pages of classified material), they still support him, but have no idea why. They are incapable of explaining their support for Trump. Indeed, Trump Republicans avoid discussing Trump.

Want proof? The forum's Trump Republicans will not respond to the issues in this report.

CNN continued, "Analysts have often described such an educational divide among primary voters as the wine track (centered on college-educated voters) and the beer track (revolving around those without degrees). Over the years, it’s been a much more consistent feature in Democratic than Republican presidential primaries. But the wine track/beer track divide emerged as the defining characteristic of the 2016 GOP race, when Trump’s extraordinary success at attracting Republicans without a college degree allowed him to overcome sustained resistance from the voters with one.

“Trump does seem to have a special ability to make this sort of populist appeal [to non-college voters] and also have a special ability to make college-educated conservatives start thinking about alternatives,” GOP pollster Chris Wilson said in an email. “I think we’ll continue to see a big education divide in his support in 2024.”

CNN concludes, "On paper, none of the leading candidates other than DeSantis himself seems particularly well positioned to threaten Trump’s hold on the non-college Republicans who have long been the most receptive audience for his blustery and belligerent messaging."

Trump Republicans have not been able to defend Trump or their party. Nor have they been able to deal with the issues presented.

 

There are two, major problems, with your theory. #1, is that it is utter foolishness, to count on, any particular voting behavior, in a Presidential election, especially this far out. I will point you to G.W. Bush's re-election, after his horrific, first term. Also, to the more recent election of Glen Youngkin, as Virginia governor. One takes public opinion for granted, at one's own risk. If one side can convince people of a narrative, it is irrelevant, whether there is any truth to it: Kerry & the Swift boat captains; "a third Party can't win, so it is a wasted vote;" I could go on. This is what the Republican Culture War, aims to do, by demonizing fringe groups, and convincing voters that the Democratic agenda is to turn people's children into multisexual playthings, arrest people for using the "wrong" pronouns, and make every black person in the country rich, through taxpayer-funded Reparations. Don't laugh-- they have made progress, in this direction. It is meaningless that it is the Dems who actually have an agenda, a very pragmatic one, and that the preceding nonsense has nothing to do with it; or that talking about those types of things, is mostly all the Republicans seem to have. Let them do that, uncontested, for the next year, and it may not make any difference, if Biden or any Democrat tries to correct those who have accepted this, as part of their view of reality.


Oh, the second major problem with your theory, is that in the most recent polling, Trump actually beats Biden, in that theoretical match up.

 

I told Dems to run a better candidate than Biden. If they had just nominated a halfway competent contender the last time none of this would matter. If Trump is the next president it will be because of Biden and those who nominated him.

I didn’t think Trump had a chance in 2024 and am on record on PF saying so. Looks like the Biden administration is proving me wrong.

Bottom line—a choice between Biden or Harris and Trump in 2024 is the final nail in this country’s coffin. We don’t deserve to exist if that’s the best we have to nominate.

 

You give Trump too much credit. Tucker Carlson cherry picking J6 footage (just like everyone else did) isn't gonna put Trump back on top. He LOST. Sure he loves the spotlight and is gonna capitalize on what he can, like the new J6 stuff but seriously, stop giving him so much credit. The right isn't as far up his butt as you guys think he is.

 

It’s better entertainment and better information when there are two cherry pickers instead of just one. Even better would be full release of the tapes to the public.

 

I’m nervous of what he would do in a lame duck term.

 

Hear! Hear!

 

Trump's such a narcissist & wants the throne so badly that he'll come back and rule as a zombie if he has to.

 

Will the GOP take the risk of nominating Trump after struggling through the midterms? The GOP wants to win, not lose.

 

Something is wrong with the Emerson Poll's measurement of Trump. They have hit exactly 55% several times now, and that's not how good polling works. Good polling will circle closely around the right number, within the margin of error. When it repeatedly lands on exactly the same number, there is something going that needs correcting.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

 

Biden CAN Beat Trump...
Biden would have a much harder time vs DeSantis...

 

DeSantis is closing in on the highly prized Jeb! endorsement.


Jeb! sees a future president.

 

That's not what polled Republicans say. Did you read the OP?

Granted, it's early, but that doesn't mean that voters are not familiar, with what they are getting with Trump. So dethroning the Donald, replies on someone else, outshining him, when it is more often the case, that the sweet spot for politicians, in this type poll, is when they have achieved name recognition, but not much is yet known, of their policies or political history.

We shall see. But, at the moment, the Right is still pretty far up Trump's rump, as you visualize your image.

 

DeSantis is smart, he is not gonna get in the mud with Trump until he has too

the only way Trump wins is if more republican run like they did in 2016, Trump has the support of about 30% of the Republican Party, so if 5 people run, he wins... if 2 or 3 people run, it would be a up hill battle for him

 

The Republicans don't have to worry about claims of racism from independents. Most of us know they didn't have an affirmative action cabinet(Meritocracy reigns supreme, or it should.) Mediocre talent need not apply. If Biden wins a second term, he could do well to actually be serious about his cabinet.

 

Biden could beat Trump in 2020. Not so much today. Things are very different now unfortunately.

 

most republican know the catch to Trump is that he motivates the democrats to get out and vote, they will never let another 2016 happen

Trump could win the Primary... but can he win the Presidency and not harm the down seats