Marist Rust-Belt States Poll: Pres. Trump is deep, deep underwater

These three states have 46 electors combined:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/820-re...for-trump-in-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin/

The raw data:

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin


Screenshots of the tables, with interesting data-points blocked in in bright orange:

First, Michigan:







Pennsylvania:






Wisconsin:





The long and short of it is that the three individual state polls track very closely to each other.

Michigan: Trump approve 36 / disapprove 55, -19 (adults)
Michigan: Trump approve 36 / disapprove 55, -19 (registered voters)

Pennsylvania: Trump approve 33 / disapprove 52, -19 (adults)
Pennsylvania: Trump approve 35 / disapprove 54, -19 (registered voters)

Wisconsin: Trump approve 33 / disapprove 56, -23 (adults)
Wisconsin: Trump approve 34 / disapprove 56, -22 (registered voters)

Trump's approval among Republicans:
Michigan: 80/16, +66
Pennsylvania: 71/18, +53
Wisconsin: 71/19, +52
Normally a president is over 90% by his own party.

Trump's approval among Independent voters:
Michigan: 35/52, -17
Pennsylvania: 31/56, -24
Wisconsin: 35/54, -23

Trump's approval among Women:
Michigan: 27/64, -37
Pennsylvania: 29/60, -31
Wisconsin: 25/63, -38


Trump's approval among White non-college graduates:
Michigan: 41/47, -6
Pennsylvania: 40/46, -6
Wisconsin: 38/47, -9

Trump's approval among White Evangelical Christians:
Michigan: 58/33, +25
Pennsylvania: 52/30, +22
Wisconsin: 44/38, +6

There are some other data-points I highlighted, but I do think these are the most important.
The statistics for the individual rubriks track closely to each other among the three states, except in the case of White Evangelical Christians, where the numbers in Wisconsin really are quite different.

Among Independent voters, Trump is at between -17 and -24, generally the most dangerous sign of all. Knowing that a sitting President will have overwhelming approval from his own party (in Trump's case, somewhat less, but still a huge majority) and will have overwhelming disapproval from the opposition party, the Independents pretty much decide how a state will view and later, vote for someone.

Among women, Trump is massively underwater, by between -31 and -38. That is an enormous deficit and one that is hard to overcome. Now, most of those women are likely Democrats or Independents, but a president doesn't get to a statistic this dismal without also losing women from his own party.

Among white non-college grads, Trump is slightly underwater, a direct contra-indicator to most, if not all, national approval/disapproval polling.

This is just one set of data-points, so I won't draw any value judgements, but if similar data starts coming in, then that could definitely represent a crack in the Trump base.

Just to remind: Trump won Michigan by +0.12% and Pennsylvania by +0.72% and Wisconsin by +0.76%. All three of those wins are smaller than Obama's 2008 Indiana margin of +1.03%, and Obama lost Indiana four years later. So, just to remain competitive in the three rustbelt states that Trump brought into the GOP column, he really needs to be at 50 or above just to have a chance to retain these states, should he run for re-election in 2020.

-Stat

 

So what? Means nothing. He already won the election.

 

How does this compare to a month ago, or two months ago? Is this static or are the numbers moving?

 

Yes, he won the election. But these are not the kind of numbers a sitting president wants to have if he is seeking RE-election.

 

Trump's approval among Republicans:
Michigan: 80/16, +66
Pennsylvania: 71/18, +53
Wisconsin: 71/19, +52
Normally a president is over 90% by his own party.

I'm trying to remember who was the last President that was so unpopular with his own party this early into his first term.

 

If the voters of MI, WI and PA had to do it over, Trump would lose.

Sadly, things don't work that way.

The voters in those 3 states screwed up majorly.

So, thanks to low-information voters invading the polls in those 3 states:

The 73% of America that didn't vote for Trump are living through a nightmare.

 

And what of the 79% who didn't vote for Obama?

 

Ok, just to be clear, both of these comparisons are utterly ridiculous.

First, 65.9 million votes votes = 21.6% of the complete population of the USA at that time, so even if every CHILD (who is not allowed to vote) had somehow magically decided to vote, it would require literally every single US-American cititzen to have decided against Obama in order to even come close to the statistic you made. The statistic about Trump is equally ridiculous.

If someone does nor, or cannot, vote, that doesn't mean their vote is AGAINST someone.

Even if you, just for shits and grins, widen the field to the number of actual registered voters in 2012 (185 million), then 65.9 million votes was 35.6% of all registered voters, but Romney's 60.9 million votes was was only 32.9% of all registered voters. That being said, even this comparison is utterly ridiculous. If people don't vote, then they are simply not in the end statistic. It's really that simple.

There is plenty of good stuff to argue about, but I contend that this kind of false statistics is not in that category....

 

One thing's for sure looking at those numbers.

Trump sure pulled in a LOT of D's in the areas in the General.

I mean nearly all the I's for sure.

 

it depends how many exit polls were worded.

Statistically, Clinton only got about 60,000-70,000 less votes in 2016 that Obama accrued in 2012.
So, there is more than one way to explain the phenomenon, but at the end of the day, I find that to be inconsequential.

 

I just like looking at how numbers can be read.

I used to help my uncle make book when I was a kid.

 

Lol..... Oh you guys .... too funny , doest matter how you try n justify it . You lost , even though many predicted otherwise. Lol.

 

The anti trump left is insane and mindlessly determined to remove him from office by any means possible

For some on the left that includes killing him if they got the chance

But my main point is that the trump presidency is only beginning

Now is not the time to think about the next election

But the slimy professional politicians in washiington never stop thinking about anything else

 

What kind of book.

 

Gambling

 

Äääähm, ok....

 

What is the deal with white Evangelical Christians ? They continue to be an embarrassment to Christianity and this nation in general.

 

Its over 3 years until re-election.

What is the point of talking about numbers now?

 

good analysis, thanks for the lack of partisan bias

 

Yep and if the voters dislike him even more than they did last Nov. he will win in a landslide.

 

In those 3 states, too many traditional Dems stayed home (or WASTED their votes on Jill Stein).

 

A 3rd party vote is not a waste. Especially in this last election. We need the 3rd party to rise or we'll keep getting elitists (that both sides claim to be against). This last election we had the two biggest elitists in the country running together.

 

The hardcore Trump cult desperately contrives their feeble diversions, of course, because they cannot accept that most folks have consistently indicated that their messiah stinks. The consequences will be suffered by Republicans in Congress in '18, and whether the stinker is impeached or is shoved aside in '20, it's obvious that the Party yearns for the temperamentally-stable Pence, not given to hysterical tweets and potentially far more competent in imposing a radical ideological agenda on America.

 

It's already a candidacy. He's already campaigning. They will analyze the numbers until he decides he isn't in campaign mode.

 

He isn't campaigning.

What makes you think that?