Measurements Show Planets Axis Wobbling = Climate Change

Discussion in 'Science' started by ChristopherABrown, Aug 21, 2018.

  1. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    As a surveyor I've studied celestial geometry and understand how to use astronomical objects to find directions on the ground. But, this is not nearly that complicated. This is simple measurement of the vertical angle of the sun that anyone with a few skills of using a measuring tape, a plumb bob and trigonometry.

    By installing a sun pole, a simple vertical pole or straight staff in level ground and marking the shadow of the tip of the pole at intervals near noontime, before during and after, one can determine the correct time of measurement and the vertical angle of the sun. Here is what it looks like on the ground.

    [​IMG]

    Another way which is quicker and easier, once a person knows the correct time of the solar noon, is to use a simple handheld survey instrument called an Abney. It measures vertical angles directly. The one I use is about the most accurate and measures angles to the nearest 10 minutes of arc. This is what it looks like.

    [​IMG]

    the critical measurements began July 5th when a vertical angle of 14 degrees was measured. I did this because of an image taken in Sumatra of a handful of hail ice that had fallen for the first time. It was posted on Facebook.

    [​IMG]

    The sun historically is always at 23.5 degrees except for variances of 1 degree greater and smaller every 40k years or so.

    [​IMG]

    I began measuring about once a week. On July 17 I measured 12 degrees 50 minutes. I last measured 8/19/18 and found an angle of 21 degrees 20 minutes.

    Clearly, something is very wrong with the earths axis, and it appears to be at least an 8 degree wobble which explains the radical climate change since 2014.

    This is not to say that greenhouse gasses are not also causing warming in the long term. Clearly, humanity needs to move away from fossil fuels as zoo as possible, they are very toxic in the short term.
     
  2. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Well-Known Member

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    We've known about the wobble for a long time - over a century. The only thing new is that scientists have discovered why it has become more radical. And you have it backwards. Climate change is CAUSING it to wobble more than in past centuries.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/09/scientists-just-figured-out-whats-causing-earth-to-wobble.html

    http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/4/e1501693.full

    Instead of playing with sticks and shadows, read the published science FIRST!
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2018
  3. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    The axial tilt of Earth has not changed by 8 degrees in one month.

    If I had to guess I'd say you're actually measuring the solar declination (or something equivalent). This value will oscillate between -23.5 and +23.5 throughout the year as the Earth orbits around the Sun. The rate at which this value changes is not constant, but instead is modulated by a cosine function. This explains why the declination decreases slowly around the solstices and faster around the equinoxes. The rates of change from 7/5 to 7/17 should be about 1.6 and from 7/17 to 8/19 should be about 8.5. If you want to measure the axial tilt you can use your same method except that you must take the measurement on the summer and winter solstices only or you can take the measurement everyday but it must be normalized to the orbital position of Earth relative to the Sun. You're instruments are almost certainly not precise enough to detect any difference on a yearly basis nevermind on a daily basis. The wobble just isn't that fast. As you've pointed out the cycle is on the order of 40k years.

    Changes in axial tilt have definitely been implicated in climate change though.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2018
  4. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Oops, you did not post a link to the published science showing the extent of wobble. Meaning your position has no veracity. Simply relying on "experts" at this point is not competent.

    And, there are other things happen simultaneously that climate change cannot cause. There are severely disproportionate levels of mass and energy involved.

    And the extent of wobble is so great it was noticed formally by the Inuit in 2014 when the sun moved in their sky and migratory animals changed their schedules. But NASA will not respond to their emails.

    http://www.whitewolfpack.com/2015/04/earth-has-shifted-inuit-elders-issue.html

    But NASA does say that ice is increasing at the south pole.

    (2014)
    https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum

    And there is confirming info.

    (2015)
    http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/03/world/antarctica-ice-gain/index.html

    Another view that includes north pole decreases and south pole increases.

    https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    ICE MELTING FROM BELOW
    https://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2018/07/shocking-sea-ice-thickness-data-from.html?spref=fb


    Does critical thinking serve us to indicate that the north pole is warming while the south is cooling. Is this consistent with the axis of the earth tilting towards the sun at the north pole?

    There are other factors
    We have severe vulcanism, carbon in the atmosphere does not do that.

    https://www.nps.gov/havo/planyourvisit/lava2.htm

    in more than 1 place.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/06/04/guatemala-fuego-volcano-eruption/668253002

    See the ring of fire
    https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/fuego/news.html

    A yellowstone park statement about the fissure there. They don't tell you there is 80 miles between those 2 points.
    “The Hidden Falls and Inspiration Point areas are currently closed due to elevated potential for rockfall. The area was closed to protect human safety on July 10 after expanding cracks in a rock buttress were detected. It is unknown how long the closure will be in effect. Geologists are monitoring the buttress for movement and have initiated a risk assessment for the area.”

    Then fissures all over the planet. Rain? I think not

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    Last edited: Aug 22, 2018
  5. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    I think the angle of obliquity is the most universal term, but yes, declination is correct. I think it depends on whether the discussion is broader astronomical terms or more based in the observations from earth.

    By the dates you can see I was trying to coincide measurement with the summer solstice. There was dense cloud cover for a couple of weeks that prevented observation. I do have much more accurate instrumentation, but no prism eyepiece or solar filter at this time.

    The Abney is plenty precise for measuring the changes that are present, and make it possible to do quickly, regularly.

    In 2016 I started measuring by determining the solstice. I started about a month before solstice using a sun pole. At the time I did not know it, despite the solar angle measured being 19 degrees 40 minutes, that the wobble existed to the extent finally found. I should have continued measuring. But the wobble displaced the measured solstice by about 3 weeks. Making it early.

    So even measuring the summer solstice accurately by observing the noon shadow increasing up to the solstice, then decreasing after the solstice is not reliable within the wobble.

    I would like to get the accessories for a 2 second wild theodolite I have to measure the horizontal changes in the sun which will map the shape of the wobble, but there is not much point because I live in a canyon and the sun does not even show over the ridge until 7:30 am and disappears over the western side by about 5 pm. The increased height in the sky will reduce the apparent horizontal displacement enough to make it less apparent. To make calculations simpler it seems I would need to make measurements at equal times before and afternoon. Solar noon occurs at about 1 PM here.

    I suspect the wobble is not concentric and not only oval but a narrower curve portion when the sun is nearest to the zenith. The rate of change seemed to be much faster as it approached the 12 degrees 50 minutes measured than the rate seen now as the sun is transiting lower in the sky. I will have to have measurements over the full cycle of the wobble to see it more clearly.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2018
  6. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    Dang it, y'all aren't paying attention. If it isn't man made, we can't collect taxes from y'all, and then where would those super safe annuities come from?? I mean, you're killing the nice folks at Goldman Sachs..... How will they ever be able to feed themselves???

    Axial wobbling, solar output variations... these things aren't "real"... wink wink...
     
  7. iamanonman

    iamanonman Well-Known Member

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    I think there may be phenomenon that are getting mixed up here. Axial tilt is the angle of the axis of rotation relative to the orbital plane. Axial precession is the wobble of the axis of rotation. It is what causes the solstice dates to shift relative to the Gregorian calendar. Then there are minor wobbles like the Chandler Wobble that have really short periods that are measured in years instead of millenniums. I believe it's the Chandler Wobble that has an element of causation that comes from climate change. Which rotational/orbital perturbation are you trying to measure?
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2018
  8. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Well there is the seasonal change which can be seen as a wobble over one year as the 23.5 degrees changing directions as viewed from one side of the ecliptic.
    http://hosting.astro.cornell.edu/academics/courses/astro201/earth_precess.htm

    This site uses a phrase that is appropriate here.
    https://dept.astro.lsa.umich.edu/resources/ugactivities/Labs/precession/

    "Note that precession affects the direction of the Earth's axis, but it does not affect the angle of its tilt relative to the ecliptic. Thus, precession affects the time of year in which various constellations are visible. The 23.5º axis tilt is constant, and so the seasons themselves continue just like they are now"

    It should be noted that both sites define a 26,000 year cycle and the the Mayan calender calls for approximately the same period. The fact that their calendar is the most accurate of all has meaning looking at the long term and a period of 26,000 years fits that description.

    There is a clue in the legends regarding their calendar. They refer to the end of the cycle as the "end of time". Few people are familiar enough with the sun worshipping societies of ancient times to know this refers virtually to the end of the time keeping mechanisms effectiveness. Or that "the end of time" means the sun does something in the sky that makes it ineffective for consistent time keeping.

    It is not at all incredible to me that the modern anthropologist/astronomer missed the event by 2 years, making 2014 the actual onset of the irregularities of the sun.

    What I believe I'm seeing, and facts support it, is that the precession has a disturbance within its rotation as it cycles and that amounts to extreme nutations that last for a extended period. The Mayans mapped this in time and marked the end of the consistency of the suns position in the sky needed for their time keeping.

    There is an explanation for the disturbance, but astronomy has not yet proven it by observation, what is as yet still a theory, that there is a 9th planet which is not on the ecliptic and outside of Plutos orbit. The planet about 10 times the size of earth and probably very dense and very magnetic causes a 6 degree axis change of the sun to the Ecliptic, as well as disturbing the planets axis's.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
  9. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member

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    Though there is indeed evidence for planet 9 (Kuiper belt anomalies) we would be seeing effects on all the planets vs. just Earth and said effects would either be extreme or invisible.
     
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  10. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Looks like it's almost time to start using our Oronteus Finaeus maps.
     
  11. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Aug 23, 2018
  12. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Why promote errors and ignorance which explains nothing?
     
  13. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You don't think major pole shifts actually can, or have, occurred?
     
  14. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, cannot understand how you get that interpretation from my post. I definitely think they have occurred, all the way to planetary inversions. The geologic record shows that.

    My post was chiding you for suggesting we use erroneous, obsolete maps. Perhaps I misunderstood why you said that? What did you mean?
     
  15. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Donor

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    Is this about Man Made Planetary Axis Tilt deviations creating Global Warming?

    Something I would like to see paired up with Solar Cycles.
    How we looking now with a Solar Minimum favoring a cool down.
    Not that it could possible overcome the CO2 and other Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere :rolleyes:

    BTW does more or less tilt favor a Warm Up or Cool Down? :hmm:


    Moi :oldman:
    Stop The Wobble
    Support Static Earth



    :nana: :flagcanada:
     
  16. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    It is now a little over 5 weeks and I measured 22 degrees 50 minutes on 8/22/18. That is 10 degrees in 5 weeks, and it is cooler now by a decent amount in southern California, as well as elsewhere. The sun is much lower in the sky.
     
  17. jay runner

    jay runner Well-Known Member

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    Over a time period of six months you will get around 47 degrees of change. We're about two months past solstice so the rate of change is getting faster. The fastest rate of change is right at the equinoxes. At the solstices the change is barely perceptible for awhile because the rate of change is at the slowest.

    Hunters stuck their spears in the earth and evaluated the shadow as to whether to continue hunting or return to the cave. From that baseline NASA has been built.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2018
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  18. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    I saw the first few lines of the OP and thought

    “Another case if a little knowledge is dangerous”.

    Why do people think that a bit of wet string is more accurate than a meteorologist instrument array?
     
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  19. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    You don’t think someone would have noticed if they were happening now?

    And are we talking magnetic poles or actual geographical poles?
     
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  20. ChristopherABrown

    ChristopherABrown Well-Known Member

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    Not about "Man Made Planetary Axis Tilt deviations creating Global Warming", it is about a natural cycle. And you are 100% correct that it is not related or going to overcome Co2 or greenhouse gasses and their effects. Ocean acidification might be the most rapid damage of all.

    Right now the planets axis is in the part of the cycle tilting away from the sun, an east west motion. The low point in the sky. This is the cooler phase.

    The wobble has a shape. Not concentric. I began measurements July 5th, and within 2 weeks the sun had reached the highest point measured, 12 degrees 50 minutes and began dropping quickly. It is still doing so, but slowly. Any projections of full cycle length is difficult without more frequent and more precise measurements. I hope to get one today, but it is overcast.
     

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