midterms?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by bradt93, Jul 25, 2017.

  1. bradt93

    bradt93 Well-Known Member

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    I think if the economy is still pretty good, not great, the gop will hold the house, but if we go into a recession, the dems will take back control. It's all about the economy, politics 101.
     
  2. perdidochas

    perdidochas Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. I think the GOP will lose the House. We lost seats at the election of a GOP President (which is a bad sign). Most of the time the party of the sitting President loses seats in the House on midterms. I do predict we hold the Senate, but by a very slim margin.
     
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  3. Daniel Light

    Daniel Light Well-Known Member

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    I have given up predicting American politics. The American capacity to forgive strange is beyond me.
     
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  4. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    I hear you.

    After an IMBECILE (like Trump) got elected POTUS, it is best to avoid the prediction game.
     
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  5. bradt93

    bradt93 Well-Known Member

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    Well, the dems could've won the election if they nominated whos approval ratings were not underwater and was disliked by a lot of americans. It's their own fault.
     
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  6. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Lol, I mean if a party can lose to an IMBECILE, then that makes predictions pretty hard. Just wait for when they run someone smart.
     
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  7. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There's too many variables. In recent years people have come to believe that Republicans do better in midterms, but I doubt that'll hold water without a Democrat for President. Trump's approval could improve or get worse, and there's some real "wiggle room" as to what his approval actually is. There is a lot of variation in the polls lately, and that may be due to bad methodology on some (many were way off with last election), or may be due to who is being polled (traditionally likely voter polls were the best predictors, registered voters next, adult polls last - and he's not doing bad in LV polls, but we don't know what groups will turn out).

    So I'm not making any such broad predictions. However the Senate map is just bad for Democrats - they have far more up for reelection, many of them in deep red states, and who have been in line with the party too much to get as much slack as they usually do from constituents.
     
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  8. bradt93

    bradt93 Well-Known Member

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    They have to run a populist like Trump in order to win again.
     
  9. Kaner88

    Kaner88 Well-Known Member

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    Trumps approval numbers continue to decline, all he has left is his base which isn't large enough to sustain any victories.
     
  10. Kaner88

    Kaner88 Well-Known Member

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    Actually they did win the election by 3 million votes. trump is the President of the electoral collage, not the people.
     
  11. bradt93

    bradt93 Well-Known Member

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    Whatever helps you sleep at night.
     
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  12. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The GOP will hold the House regardless. The only real question is the Senate.
     
  13. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. Regaining control of The House (for the Dems in 2018 midterms) would be a tough slog.

    Considering the unconscionable Gerrymandering (in favor of the GOP) and the small number of truly "contestable" seats, a Dem pickup of 10-15 (which could set up a 2020 Dem House takeover) would be a fine result.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2017
  14. JakeJ

    JakeJ Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Democrats face serious primary challenges. Anyone who does promise free college, free healthcare and basically free everything, doesn't support open borders, men in women's bathrooms, outlawing firearms and express hatred of business, everyone with traditional or conventional beliefs and morality, and white men would have difficulty winning a Democratic primary. The the I-hate-almost-everyone control-freak socialist then has to try to win in November.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2017
  15. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    That is an interesting point.

    How many "Bernie People" are going to try to primary Moderate Dems.
     
  16. ArmySoldier

    ArmySoldier Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Half the people didn't even vote. The EC is the ONLY way to elect a President. He's your President. Get over it
     
  17. Ronstar

    Ronstar Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    the POS will never be "my President".

    I'd spit in his face if he walked by me
     
  18. bradt93

    bradt93 Well-Known Member

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    And you would be thrown in jail lol.
     
  19. Ronstar

    Ronstar Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    would be worth it
     
  20. Kaner88

    Kaner88 Well-Known Member

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    No question that he is our President, my point was the people didn't want him. Now where did you get the ridiculous idea that half the people dint vote? Thats absurd.
     
  21. bradt93

    bradt93 Well-Known Member

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    I would rather have Trump than that one of those members of the disgusting Khan family. Gold star my ass, I don't care. His people attacked us on 9/11.
     
  22. Kaner88

    Kaner88 Well-Known Member

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    In your mind every single one of the billion plus of Muslims is guilty of 9/11.
     
  23. ArmySoldier

    ArmySoldier Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No you would not
     
  24. ArmySoldier

    ArmySoldier Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    55% voter turnout in the United States for the 2016 election. That's roughly ALMOST (since you're being super literal right now) only half the country.

    Your data is incomplete because half the country didn't even vote. You can't tell us who America wanted more because no one knows.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections
     
  25. Kaner88

    Kaner88 Well-Known Member

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    If you want to be accurate try this:
    According to the United States Election Project, an average of 59.7 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots. (The turnout number is lower when you just look at voting-age Americans, but not all Americans over 18 can vote, for various reasons.)Dec 19, 2016
     

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