Monarch butteflies headed for extinction

Discussion in 'Environment & Conservation' started by (original)late, Sep 15, 2020.

  1. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    " But the 2018 Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count found that the number of west-coast monarchs spending the winter in California had plunged to only 20,456 butterflies—a drop of 86 percent since last year. And the number of eastern monarchs overwintering in Mexico this year has dropped 15 percent since last year, for a total decline of more than 80 percent over the past 20 years, according to the National Wildlife Federation.

    Increasing carbon dioxide levels may be making milkweed—the only food monarch caterpillars will eat—too toxic for the monarchs to tolerate. And higher temperatures may also be driving summer breeding areas further north. That means the monarchs’ migration routes will get longer and therefore more difficult

    “A lot of environmental threats can pile up on top of each other,” says University of Wisconsin entomologist Karen Oberhauser."

    Industrial agriculture is also playing a big role here.

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...h-butterflies-risk-extinction-climate-change/
     
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  2. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    To the cult every world event is immediately credited to AGW. LOL and YAAAWN
     
  3. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    You didn't bother reading my post, much less the article...
     
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  4. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    Where's the evidence C02 is the problem? All I saw was the word "may" used over and over.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
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  5. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    Climate change is part of the hypothesis. It would be remarkable if it turned out climate change wasn't part of the answer.

    But I take it you have your excuse now, so you're good to go?
     
  6. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    The AGW hypothesis is automatically thrown into every hypothesis piling hypothesis on hypothesis on hypothesis. Not good science just politics.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
  7. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    As I thought, you have your excuse.

    Btw, it stopped being a hypothesis over 20 years ago.

    Not that I expect reality or relevance here.
     
  8. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    It's a hypotheses until it's a theory and it hasn't crossed that threshold. Every real world test of the hypothesis has failed with predictions constantly modified and extended hoping they someday come true.


    "A hypothesis is either a suggested explanation for an observable phenomenon, or a reasoned prediction of a possible causal correlation among multiple phenomena. In science, a theory is a tested, well-substantiated, unifying explanation for a set of verified, proven factors.
    Hypothesis vs Theory - Difference and Comparison | D…
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
  9. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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  10. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    The so called consensus is BS and irrelevant even if it were true. Hypothesis turns to theory after crossing a threshold AGW has not even approached.
     
  11. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    You're really not good at this.

    The threshold is when that community of scientists accepts it. It did that roughly 20 years ago, with the larger scientific community embracing it shortly after.

    Frankly, it has survived all attacks and only come out stronger. At this point, anyone with a room temp IQ can see it.

    My favorite moment was when the Koch brothers paid a physicist, the Climate Sceptic, to review the whole thing. Imagine their disappointment when the physicist came to the same conclusion as the climatologists.

    No more Climate Sceptic, and no more hefty checks from the Kochs...
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
  12. CKW

    CKW Well-Known Member

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    Their assumptions are based on may's and ifs. And research was done in conditions not happening...which is more like ....if. I would say be wary of believing this at all.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
  13. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    When I was a kid I'd see lots of Monarchs.

    Saw one this summer.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
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  14. CKW

    CKW Well-Known Member

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    I'm not saying their population is not down. I'm saying the reasons given dont seem valid and they have nothing tangible...only assumptions.

    I wonder if the fires and locations of fires in california couldn't be an issue ?
     
  15. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    That could show up in next years count, if those fires have killed off the milkweed.

    There's a number of causes, but again, what would be surprising would be if climate change wasn't one of them.

    "However, a number of traits make them vulnerable to a changing climate. Like most butterflies, monarchs are highly sensitive to weather and climate: They depend on environmental cues (temperature in particular) to trigger reproduction, migration, and hibernation. Their dependence on milkweed alone as a host plant is a further vulnerability, particularly as milkweed abundance is declining throughout the monarch range. They also face a decline in their overwinter habitat, and the effects of an increasing frequency of extreme weather events such as drought and severe storms, and extremes in hot and cold temperatures."

    https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/monarch-butterflies-and-climate-change
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
  16. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    He came to the conclusion as most everyone does that man has some effect on the climate as we do on everything we touch. That's a far cry from saying our climate contribution is anything to be concerned about and isn't overwhelmed by natural processes both known and unknown. Climate has always changed and will continue to do so after we are long gone from some super volcano or asteroid hit.
     
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  17. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    Theres been lots of fires in California for many years now.
     
  18. (original)late

    (original)late Banned

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    "In an opinion piece in Saturday’s New York Times titled “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic,” Muller writes:

    “Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.”

    You need much better lies.

    https://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0730/Prominent-climate-change-denier-now-admits-he-was-wrong
     
  19. Collateral Damage

    Collateral Damage Well-Known Member

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    So what temperature is the Earth supposed to be?

    Even if the Earth is warming, actually the climate is changing, it may actually be returning to it's own balance of where it should be.

    I highly doubt humans are 'almost entirely the cause'. The Earth has cycled through multiple events of warming and cooling long before men were a twinkle in the sky.
     
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  20. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    Hadn't heard that but accusing me of lies seems a bit out of line. Try to be civil or ill have to enforce my signature. Thank you
     
  21. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    Earth has been warming since the last ice age and will continue to warm until the next one.
     
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  22. Josephwalker

    Josephwalker Banned

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    I’m betting original ran crying to the mods and I’ll be forced to change my signature. lol
     
  23. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You don't think it could be the overdevelopment from the excessive numbers of immigration into that area?
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020
  24. politicalcenter

    politicalcenter Well-Known Member

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    How many milkweed plants do you see? Not many I would guess.
     
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  25. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    These butterflies preffered area would be near closer to the coast, and that is also the area that has had the most development.
    There simply isn't much habitat for them anymore.

    If you go further inland, it gets too dry, and you start going inland north, it gets too cold.
    This species thrives only along a relatively narrow strip in this region.
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2020

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