NASA says less solar activity for 5 yrs

Discussion in 'Science' started by Quasar44, Jan 17, 2020.

  1. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Well-Known Member

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    That means more cold weather for the next 5 yrs
    Will be less solar activity on this recorded 25th cycle
    This new cycle starts in 3 months
     
  2. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Which may give us somewhat of a reprieve but what happens then if we are on the current track?
     
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  3. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Well-Known Member

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    If This last cycle of global warming continues then by 2100; you will see many costal cities Look like Venice , Italy
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2020
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  4. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Won’t take that long because the solar influence is no longer the primary driver

    upload_2020-1-17_17-10-53.png

    https://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

    If solar input was a main driver we would be seeing cooling NOW
     
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  5. skepticalmike

    skepticalmike Active Member

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    According to NASA, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update, the solar minimum will occur on April of 2020 and cycle 25 will be similar to cycle 24..

    2019 is the second warmest year in the temperature record and this occurred during low solar activity.

    The National Weather Service has this to say: https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle.

    We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

    [​IMG]

    SOLAR CYCLE 25 FORECAST UPDATE
    published: Monday, December 09, 2019 22:30 UTC
    The NOAA/NASA co-chaired, international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released their latest forecast for Solar Cycle 25. The forecast consensus: a peak in July, 2025 (+/- 8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) of 115. The panel agreed that Cycle 25 will be average in intensity and similar to Cycle 24.

    Additionally, the panel concurred that solar minimum between Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April, 2020 (+/- 6 months). If the solar minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 7th longest on record (11.4 years).
     
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  6. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Well-Known Member

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    We shall see next winter who is correct
    I predict a freezing winter
     
  7. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    Fir how long?
     
  8. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Well-Known Member

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    For the next 5 yrs or so !!!
     
  9. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The warmest year really depends on which temperature record you use. NASA uses one that is out of the norm for their baseline and have resisted updating it.
     
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  10. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  11. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There is about a 15 year lag in reaction to solar activity due mainly to the ability of oceans to retain heat content. We are already seeing an increase in cosmic rays hitting earth and it has now been proven in a lab that cosmic rays can start the formation of clouds. More clouds = more sunlight reflected back to space; thus, cooling.

    Even TSI varies more than scientists thought now that we can measure it from space.
     
  12. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Solar dynamics are far too complex and variable to be accurately forecast and when the realities of star evolution are included anything we "Guess" at is just that...a Guess. Using what we call solar cycles is folly as they are a 100 year record of a billion year timeline. If we wish to deal with the climate of our planet it would be best to not include the sun as it is an insignificant and misunderstood variable.
     
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  13. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    And then what? Climate change will be over?
     
  14. Bowerbird

    Bowerbird Well-Known Member

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    See my graph above

    The effects of rising CO2 are drowning out the effects of solar output
     
  15. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Which would have happened at a later date even without fossil fuel c02 . Right ?

    That favorable climate window that enabled the rise of civ. was not guaranteed to last forever . Shocked?
     
  16. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Natural climate change will never be over. It changes with or without us puny humans. I know you think we are more important than any other part of nature...but dont flatter our species so much!
     
  17. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Drowning? More assumption than applied science. You assume our understanding is greater than it is.
     
  18. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Well-Known Member

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    i just don’t know as the truth is masked in politics
    I don’t know
     
  19. Rush_is_Right

    Rush_is_Right Well-Known Member

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    I have been hoping that the seas would rise for 40 years! I even made a man made beach in my front yard. I am disappointed.
     
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  20. Blaster3

    Blaster3 Well-Known Member

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    rising co2 levels always follow warming cycles, not the other way around...
     
  21. Rush_is_Right

    Rush_is_Right Well-Known Member

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    If the sun burned out today, would that be a problem?
     
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  22. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Well-Known Member

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    No
    Not for several minutes ...I think
    Then it’s ice age city
     
  23. Rush_is_Right

    Rush_is_Right Well-Known Member

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    Your funny is noted. The sun is the sole arbitor of earths climate.
     
  24. Quasar44

    Quasar44 Well-Known Member

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    The temp would plummet and plummet to that of hundreds below zero and you and I would be dead ...This of course could not happened as a Red Giant would occur first and its death by fire
     
  25. Rush_is_Right

    Rush_is_Right Well-Known Member

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    Um...what?
     

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