Nate Silver: Trump Has A 57.5% Chance Of Becoming President-

New and updated, bad news for Democrats who are fond of citing Nate Silver:

NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today
http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7

Who will win the presidency?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

All this as the Democratic party enters its convention in total, laughable disarray.

While I have never put much stock in Silver's polls, what I do put stock in is the disarray of the Democratic party and voter turnout. For the first time in his life, Michael Moore may be right about something - Bernouts sitting out the election may cost Crooked Hillary and Democrats the White House...

 

As a conservative and someone well educated in statistics.

(*)(*)(*)(*) Nate Silver the guy is a (*)(*)(*)(*)ing hack.

 

Lefties will say they don't mind, but deep down they are terrified.

Its just another clue about whats coming in November.

 

Nate uses a bunch of polls to get his numbers and I believe the last percent he gave him was around 20%. The only problem is that all of the polls are geared to normal elections and Trump is out of the mainstream for this. There are a lot of people that whisper they agree with Trump, just don't tell anyone. No one knows what will happen when they get behind the curtain to vote.

 

Ha, still has Trump at 46% chance come November. Hillary will get a DNC bounce. And will win by 6+. Donald's one of the worst candidates to ever run. Thanks Repubs!

 

LMAO!

But, the election ISN'T being held "today".

By late-October, Hillary will be coasting to a possible landslide.

After the Dem convention in 1988 (when Dukakis was riding his " bump") Dukakis led 50-33 in one poll.

I suppose Nate would've said, "If the election were held today, Dukakis would win".

Dukakis lost in an Electoral landslide.

Utterly hilarious that Trump's sheep are putting any stock in this.

If the election were held TODAY.

 

Remember the Bradley effect? Pollsters discovered that more people said they would vote for him than actually did-and it apparently was because people didn't want to admit they didn't want that (black) candidate in office. He lost.

We are going to see the reverse with Trump. People who agree with him and yet dont say so openly.

They will vote for him in November.

 

All of this corruption for power has finally come full circle. And on top of that, Hillary just doesn't excite the democratic voter base. She's to democrats, what Lindsey Graham is to Republicans.

 

In late October, with Hillary in shambles, you will no doubt necro this thread to tell us how wrong you are.

You WILL do that, right?

 

I am so glad that I can save the link to this thread (and mine)....

and ALL the Rightwingers who NOW give Nate Silver authority on predicting the election outcome....as I'm sure they'd save my OP on it from a few weeks ago.


We'll ALL give Silver the authority to make a good prediction on the Election......agreed?

- - - Updated - - -

What happens if she's NOT "in shambles"....what will YOU do?

 

It's a pretty standard post-convention bounce. Nothing unusual here (and Nate Silver has the reliability of a three legged chair).

Edit: And it changed, by the way; now it's showing 54/46, favoring Clinton.

 

When I clicked your link, this is what I saw:

Chance of winning



Hillary Clinton
53.7%


Donald Trump
46.2%

 

As of right now on 538:



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

Lo and behold, it's one of the Democrats who is fond of citing Nate Silver.

Why didn't you start a thread on THIS prediction, Cap'n? Is Silver no longer an authority on election outcomes when Trump is in the lead?

 

Trump isn't in the lead

 

I just clicked on the link, which was updated 2 minutes ago and it says Trump 57.5% Clinton 42.5%

In other words, it hasn't changed since the Opening Post...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

 

And all those clamoring about how the right should be used to losing, yada yada yada. Heads will be exploding in November.

And what the hell excitement is it gonna bring with a Spanish speaking VP? Kaine could have said "Hey dummies, if you all are smart then you will vote for Trump in November" in Spanish and the crowd would have blindly cheered. Is he pandering to those who can't speak English? Who exactly are the democrats trying to attract? Because it looks like they're going for illegals and anti-police crowds.

 

Take off the "#now".

 

I posted to you the exact screen shot I had.

I went there again, and they just updated it:

[h=2]Who will win the presidency?[/h]

Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton
57.8%


Donald Trump
42.2%

 

All the more so since all you have to do is look down tje same link to see that Silver still expects a comfortable Clinton victory.

 

OK. I see what's happening. It's hashtag that is giving varying numbers.

The one I just posted was one that had #plus at the end.--

I got that from Nates twitter feed from 3 hours ago.

 

Which indicates the OP probably got it from Drudge.....accepting Drudge's headline without "digging deeper."


But hey....we now have several PF Rightwingers who have AGREED to give Nate Silver "authority" on predicting the Election.

Let's see if they STICK with that....after the Debates? Or even sooner?

 

There was a right leaning poll you championed a couple of weeks ago, simply because it was a right leaning poll and had Trump behind Hillary. Talon has done the same thing with a lefty and you've done exactly what you thought Republicans would do with the poll you posted. Thanks for the irony. Next time, read the entire OP before you comment, because Talon made it clear he didn't put stock in anything Silver says, but instead in the disarray of the democratic party.

 

Talon, let's agree....we BOTH will grant equal authority to Silver throughout this election?

Or do you want some CYA for yourself in case Silver's numbers "go south" for Trump in a few months...or weeks?

 

If Talon and you and the rest want to stick with Nate Silver....it's absolutely fine with me.

I have a suspicion though, you'll suddenly ABANDON your favorable view of Silver....soon as Trump's numbers at 538 go down.

And more so if he's down at the end of October on 538.