Now I know why we had a larger deficit in May

Next year, Net interest will surpass Medicaid, and there's nothing we can do about it

Actual/Projected Oulays

Year/Net interest/Medicaid (in billions of dollars)

2018/325/389
2019/394/419
2020/482/426
2021/548/446
2022/611/470

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/budget-fy2020.pdf

 

Actually the bulk of outlays are mandatory spending, not discretionary spending which military spending is.

 

Well, based on the age of workers, it is entirely possible to get somewhat close. Of course when they do this, they cannot forecast any dynamic changes.

 

Not sure how what I said is materially different...

 

Old people aren't going to let any meaningful changes go through. We're stuck with that graph. Hell, I'm 44 and I'm not going to support anything that waters down my medicare.

 

Medicare, Medicaid, SS, and other mandatory spending (including the debt service) will crowd out discretionary spending to 12% by 2029 according to the CBO. The short term increase in Military spending will be a drop in the bucket compared to the current and long term growth of mandatory spending.

 

That's a completely unrelated issue. YTD 2019, the largest government outlays are Social Security, National Defense, and Medicare.

 

No, providing adequate health care that people paid in to is the least we can do. We're going to have to A) streamline the program (probably won't save much), B) raise taxes on the rich, C) cut defense spending (lol), D) deficit spend (bingo).

 

Germany's debt-to-GDP is 64%. That's MUCH less than ours. Germany is not running insanely high budget deficits either.
https://www.google.com/search?q=ger.....69i57j0l5.3247j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Source?

Of being the world's policeman and also providing benefits people expect? Obviously we aren't capable of doing it, hence the obscene debt/deficits

 

I don't know where you learned to do research but you can't really hope to find statistical information simply by googling the words "Germany" + "debt" + "national". The information you have looks outdate/inaccurate.

EDIT** Can't post images so here is the direct link.

https://ibb.co/pWQBFnj

Again, you're not really saying much of anything because you keep comparing in absolute terms. Germany's budget deficit is 1% of GDP while U.S. 4% of GDP. Yes, it might be four times larger, but our economy is significantly larger than Germany's.

I work in securities lending so I'm getting my information from Bloomberg, which is only available via subscription. However, you can look in either Eurostat or OECD

Huh? This makes zero sense. The national debt is a function of the deficit, which is based on our ability to lend. Obvious we are capable of doing it because we are doing it right now. We can do it because the nation, such as the U.S., owns its own currency. A nation that owns its own currency can never have a debt crisis. The U.S. is able to sustain its debt lending much easier than a nation such as Germany, which doesn't own its own currency. It's laughable that you would even compare the two.

 

It's a good starting point for the short/medium term, but long term projections are always pretty shaky, especially that far out.

 

Only if a Democrat gets elected. Clearly the GOP stopped worrying about our chlidren's future once a Republican got elected.

 

Which part of percentage of GDP do you not nderstand?

 

Are you talking to me? It appears this message was meant for someone else...

 

Maybe I didn't understand what you meant by:

Again, you're not really saying much of anything because you keep comparing in absolute terms. Germany's budget deficit is 1% of GDP while U.S. 4% of GDP. Yes, it might be four times larger, but our economy is significantly larger than Germany's.

As I read it if Germany's debt is only 1% of GDP and ours is 4% of GDP we are doing a much worse job of controlling the growth of our debt. Am I missing something?

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-debt-to-gdp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt


https://commodity.com/debt-clock/germany/
https://www.debtclocks.eu/public-debt-and-budget-deficit-of-germany.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-01/germany-is-slowly-getting-on-board-the-investment-train

Do I need to post more?

ETA: And one more, for good measure: https://www.forbes.com/places/germany/

 

You're not missing anything.

 

Treasury has projected fiscal year 2019 deficit to exceed ONE TRILLION.

 

It doesn't mean anything. I just means the U.S. has a larger budget deficit relative to output compared to Germany. It doesn't mean that the U.S. has a debt problem and it doesn't mean that the deficit is getting out of control. The only way to argue that is to look at trends over time. The data, from what I could gather, is roughly average. If I had to go based on the following chart, I would say there is no material difference between the debt levels relative to GDP. The differences in debt levels can merely be attributed to the scale and scoop of the U.S. economy.

 

Hard to disagree more strongly. We need to get out of these programs over time, reduce taxes on everyone and cut government spending in half.

 

You can disagree, but none of what you suggested is going to happen, at least not in the near-term.

 

Hmm, so much wrong here. Most of this information you have here is either inaccurate, or doesn't support your claims.

1. First source: Outdated
   
2. Second source: Wikipedia... Pass.
3. Third source: That is just Germany's aggregate debt.
4. Forth source: Closer, I guess. That's just random statistics. I'm assuming your going to be doing some calcuations here.
   
5. Fifth source: You didn't bother reading. It literally says the following "Figures don't reflect latest budget adjustments"

As much as I would love to read this, you haven't managed to conduct consistent research thus far. Why would I believe this would strengthen your arguments...

 

That is why I quit voting. Voting never fixes anything.

 

Lol. You're not very good at this, are you? Here's why you're wrong:
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/germany/government-debt--of-nominal-gdp

Germany's debt-to-GDP WAS 80% in 2012. It has since dropped to the low 60's. You were obviously using old data.

 

It's not a matter of voting, it's a matter of public policy. The public does not want a smaller military, lower taxes, or cuts to entitlements. The debt won't be a problem for awhile, so nobody's worrying about it right now.