One talking head suggested the Bills did not want the game to come down to Derrick Henry running the ball in OT. A 247-Pound Man Should Not Be This Fast - Evan Bleier
I don't care what they they said, unless you can quote me those analytics (so I can spot the error in their analysis of them). Kicking a FG was the smarter choice, I understood as they faced it. And the result showed that, at least, it would not have been a worse choice, and quite possibly would have turned out better.
Those two things are not just like one another. The odds with points is a much straighter calculation, as to its implications. The odds of going on 4th down, are meaningless, if it is not calculated with the field position-- inside your opponent's 5 yard line-- taken into consideration, for starters. Then, I would say that considering what the results have been for every team that has been in that position, against whatever teams they were facing, is not ipso-facto the odds of your own team, against the team you currently face. But, with the scoring scenario possibilities, they remain the same, regardless of the teams involved. So, were the "analytics," that were used to calculate the Bills' chances of success, based only on the recent history of the Bills team, in this situation? Almost assuredly, they were not. So pretending these general, overall odds, for any team, were actually accurate for the Bills, in this situation, is an utterly specious contention. Prove it. Let's hear the numbers you are using, to come to that conclusion (emboldened, above).
I was not saying the going for 2 was the same as going for 4th down. My point there was that 10 years ago teams were not doing that either. Just referencing how the game has changed Pederson (and others) started doing that and now it is frequent As for your analytics https://www.foxsports.com/stories/n...ke-correct-fourth-down-call-in-loss-to-titans According to the NFL's Next Gen Stats, the Bills' win probability increased 21.3% by going for it. If they had kicked, their win probability would've been 42.1%, as opposed to 63.4% going for it. Allen, meanwhile, is 13-for-14 on short-yardage QB sneaks in his career.
Exactly. Not only the general stats for all teams show that going for it was the way to go, but also Allen almost always gets it in, in this situation, which is an even bigger argument to go for it, so, it was just unfortunate that this time was one of the rare times when he didn't. I fully support the decision to go for it, although I'm saddened that it didn't work.
Thanks for posting the link, so we could actually discuss this, with facts. But it turned out to be that the assessment that the coach's choice was the right one, was highly-flawed, in the exact way as I had predicted: <SNIP> NFL teams this season are 128-for-256 (50%) on fourth-down attempts. On tries from 1 yard out or less, squads have a 61.4% conversion rate (62-for-101). Buffalo is now 2-for-4 on the season in such scenarios and moved to 3-for-8 on fourth-down attempts. Allen, meanwhile, is 13-for-14 on short-yardage QB sneaks in his career. <End Snip> So, problem #1 is that they are basing their judgement on the LEAGUE averages, for fourth-down attempts, and for 4th and 1 yard or less. Putting aside that I had believed it to be a little over a yard-- among all the teams, the success percentages, on 4th down attempts, no doubt varies, markedly. So to trust that whatever is the average for all teams, is an accurate representation of any specific team's odds, is an erroneous analysis (unless that team just happens to be statistically "average" in this measure). In fact, even the overall league average would only give them the same chances, 50%, as they would hypothetically have in OT. Again, this could, & should, be adjusted by team. I do not know how Buffalo generally fares in OT games, and they may not have had enough of them, in relatively recent history, to be a sufficient sample from which to draw conclusions. But I know that certain teams have decidedly winning records, in OT games, while other teams have turned in consistently poor OT results. So to assume 50% chance, as if the teams were irrelevant, I have a problem with. Nonetheless, there are enough obvious flaws here, that we don't have to focus on that one, especially as neither of us knows the two teams' OT history. But I will grant you that, if it turns out that Buffalo is a perennial choker, in Over Time, while Tennessee has a better than average OT record, the coach's call would be more understandable. But returning to my objections to these numbers they use, being truly applicable, outside of an abstract discussion, to any & every actual circumstance, I began by saying that the percentages are not based specifically on the Bills' performance (and, even then, have no better than the same, even odds, as going into OT would assume). In fact, the Bills' own 4th down tries, prior to this one, had LESS THAN a 50% success rate (3 out of 7). One might, rightly, point out that this stat includes 4th down attempts of ANY LENGTH, which would not be as precise-- even though it can be assumed that most 4th down attempts are very short yardage situations-- as if this more closely resembled the Bills' decision of having, let us call it, only 1 yard to get. And this does make a great difference! That, statistically, boosts the statistically-average squad's chances from 50% to 61.4%. But that is not the only relevant factor. As I noted in my original post, there is a very distinct difference in results-- that can be statistically confirmed!-- between any team's efforts in the RED ZONE, and elsewhere on the more open field. So to fail to take that into consideration, completely invalidates the stat, with regard to this situation. Even if one were willing to accept the notion that one's team's chances were exactly the same as any other team's (which I do not, for this situation), as if the team played no part in the result-- like we were, instead contemplating the odds that a Blackjack player will get an Ace, or a face card, or a 5 or less, if he takes a hit; something that will apply equally, no matter who is sitting in that spot-- we cannot ignore that results, near an opponent's goal line, are distinctly different from midfield results. Yet this "analysis," that says the coach made the right call, does just that! When we consider this omission, we should understand even better how going by league statistics, rather than an individual team's stats, makes a joke out of this proclamation, based on "analytics." Because, among all the teams in the NFL, you will find, I believe, an even vaster disparity between the conversion average for the best "red zone," teams-- though, rightly, we should only count TDs, in that metric, to apply to the Bills' real-life decision of whether or not to go on 4th-- and those who are worst at getting it in the end zone, once they have drawn near the opponent's goal. So even had the analytics been based on 4th downs inside the red zone (and, preferably, within the opponent's 10 yard line), which they were not, the variance in individual team's performances, would make the analysis of dubious value. That said, I do not contest the value of less team-specific "analytics," such as whether or not going for 2-points, after a TD, is wise, given the current score. These types of analyses have a greater degree of application to all teams and, really, are nothing more than a playing out of various scenarios-- made to sound overly scientifically magical, by calling it an "algorithm"-- which is something that a moderately intelligent person, with access to all the data, should be able to figure out, IMO, for themselves.
Well, luckily Independent4ever was industrious, and considerate, enough to supply a link to those at FOX, who were citing & endorsing this analysis, so you still can see why it is a preposterous thing to accept, on faith, by reading my critique of the data-- if that doesn't seem like too much work. P.S -- I'm just ribbing you, with that last comment. http://politicalforum.com/index.php...2021-nfl-thread.591176/page-3#post-1073020716 Or just go back, 1 post.
As you wish. I had merely reported what the talking heads said. I did not advocate one way or another.
How 'bout them Bengals? They've been playing solid but I don't know if anyone saw that 41-17 beatdown in Baltimore coming. And it looks like the Titans are back on track, thanks to the He's the NFL's leading rusher (again) with 869 yards heading into next week's game against Indy and could be on pace for back-to-back 2000 yard seasons. King Henry is ahead of the second leading rusher - Jonathan Taylor of the Colts - by a whopping 290 yards, is averaging 124.1 yds/game, 4.5 yds/rush and has 10 TDs this season. Enjoy it while you can, football fans: Henry is leading the NFL in rushing attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns for the third consecutive season -- a feat Jim Brown never accomplished in his Hall of Fame career. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...er-blasting-ravens-while-chiefs-in-free-fall/ Right now he's my mid-season MVP -- Kyler Murray of the undefeated Cardinals is second....
Yes, I'm not a fan of these teams but I enjoy good football regardless of who is playing, and the Bengals and the Titans have supplied good performances. And Jonathan Taylor is in my fantasy line-up.
Jonathan Taylor is a heckuva RB - an outstanding combination of strength and speed. You did well to get him in your lineup. I've become a fan of the Titans and I hope that Mike Vrabel can get their defense fixed. I love their style of play on offense, and obviously Derrick Henry makes it possible for them to play Big Boy football. Call me Old School. but in this day and age it's nice to see that there are still a few teams that prefer to run the ball and beat their opponents physically. I've always subscribed to the philosophy professed by coaches like John Madden and Joe Gibbs that championship teams are built from the offensive and defensive lines out. John Harbaugh and Kyle Shanahan have successfully embraced that philosophy, too, but unfortunately for Kyle's squad they haven't been able to stay healthy since they were literally running over teams a couple years ago. And how impressive has Joe Burrow become? It's amazing how many great young QBs there are in the NFL right now. I don't think I've ever seen such a bumper crop of talent.
Very true, OL and DL are how games are won. Yes, there are some exciting young guys... and the grandpa GOAT continues to go strong (he's in my fantasy team too! I actually lost the last game because stupidly I decided to go with Mahomes instead of Brady just minutes before kickoff, Brady had an outstanding performance, and Mahomes was a full-blown disaster, the worst game of his entire career. Had I kept Brady as a starter, I'd have won the game.
Holy cow, what's going on with the Cowboys? They are playing very well and even won a game with their back-up QB, but now a teammate speaks publicly against another teammate??? https://www.yahoo.com/news/tried-steal-touchdown-dallas-cowboys-100000267.html This is horrible and will result in locker room issues. How come the head coach doesn't put a lid on something like this??
@Talon congratulations on the spectacular offensive performance your Colts put together today. Wentz played very well, lots of trick plays, more than 500 offensive wards, the first four possessions being TDs, all pretty impressive. Some might say, "but it was against the lowly Jets." Well, the Jets actually played well. They couldn't stop Jonathan Taylor (thankfully for me; I have him in my fantasy team and he scored 33 fantasy points for me; could have been more if not for being out for several minutes with a knee issue), but otherwise the Jets scored 30 points despite losing their pretty good back-up QB White, after White put together a gorgeous drive that resulted in a TD to tie the game 7-7 but then, upon throwing the pass for the TD, White got injured. Johnson, the back-up of the back-up, also played well and almost staged a comeback. A deflection resulted in a pick that doomed the Jets, but otherwise they could have scored and could have tried for another attempt at an onside kick (they missed one, before) which could have resulted in ending drama. OK, they failed and lost, but honorably. They produced more than 400 offensive yards. Poor Jets, they're so unlucky! Last Sunday and for the first quarter today, they finally got a phenomenal young QB who could have turned their fate for the better! And then he gets injured, in the first quarter of his second starting job! While I no longer live in New York since 2003, I'm a New Yorker and originally a Jets fan. They haven't given me any joy.
Hearing Aaron Rodgers try to explain away his COVID fiasco, I can't help paraphrasing from Animal House: "Stupid and dishonest is no way to go through life, son."
Wonderlic result: Out of a maximum of 50, the average score for all NFL players is 21. The average score for quarterbacks is 26, and Aaron Rodgers' Wonderlic score of 35 is in the 96th percentile, meaning he's smarter than 96% of humanity.
That's more like it! By the way, from this point on, I'll root against Aaron Rodgers, every game he plays. What an idiot. I have two favorite NFL teams. From this point on, I'll have three. Those two, plus anybody-who-plays-against-Rodgers.
