Poll: Americans don't believe Trump has received the message from the midterms

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/me...e-trump-has-received-message-midterms-n948721

There is a very common trend which has emerged during the first two years of the Trump presidency. He plays solely to his base and his base loves him. Trump's base ranges from the 34 percent of Americans who think he is being honest in the Russia investigation to the 43 percent who think he is doing a good job. It is a joke to ourselves to think that the GOP will ever turn on Trump.

But independents have and, as we learned from the 2018 midterms when Trump's base did show up to vote (in contrast to Obama's base in 2010 and Clinton's in 1994), Trump's base is not enough.

 

Like Trump just told Pelosi and Schumer, the Republicans now have a much stronger hold on the Senate, which is exactly what Trump spent his time on.

So strong, that the Republicans will easily be able to hold the Senate in 2020.


Since I am involved with polling, the thing that strikes me the most about your premise is the assumption that Independents are turning away from Trump. That simply is not true.

While Trump's overall approval rating with Independents is at 42%, his approval rating with Independents in the five key swing states is at 51%.

 

If you are involved in polling, then you know that "his current approval rating with independents in five key swing states" is not a sufficient reason to dismiss the theory that independents are "turning away from Trump. "

You would need to address what his approval rating among independents in those same five swing states were during the 2016 election. So let's try to get that information. What are the five key swing states? I imagine you would include Ohio, Pennsylvannia, and Florida. But are you also talking about North Carolina, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, or what?

If you can show me that he had a lower (or roughly the same) approval rating among independents in those five key swing states in 2016 as compared to the 51% you claim that he has now, then I will support your statement.

 

Trump endorsed ~70 candidates. Of those, ~24 won. But if you wish to focus on the Senate, then you need to recall that Democrats had 26 seats on the chopping block. They lost 2 and since you mention 2020, the fact that they only lost two when they could have easily lost five or six, that means that Democrats have a very real chance of re-taking the Senate in 2020. If they had lost five (say, for example in the five states that Trump won by double digits in 2016), then the Democrats would have been out of power in the Senate for at least a decade.

 

Saw interesting statistics this morning... 93% of Republican women approve of Donald Trump's performance as POTUS.

Good sign 2020 will be another Trump landslide.

 

What percentage of women are Republicans? "Landslide"

 

Obviously you're picking polls you like. Unless Trump loses major support by Republicans, the same voters who elected him in 2016 will reelect him in 2020. Haters will still hate him... but hate doesnt offset electoral votes.

Women Who Love Trump
His approval among female Republicans is 93%—higher than among GOP men.

Women Who Love Trump - WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/women-who-love-trump-11545264804

 

the midterm message has been nearly the same for each & every election cycle the last 40+ years... exception being, that '18 didn't see the usual take over of the senate

 

The message from this OP has been consistent as well. Hes spent the 1st half of Trumps term trying to prove he shouldn't have won and looks like he'll spend the next half trying to prove he can't possibly win again. Its a lesson in futility.

 

well, if consistency was a virtue, they'd have one

 

Trump's base is not enough. That's the reason he lost 40 seats in the House, 7 governorships, and only gained 2 seats in the senate when democrats had 26 on the chopping block.

And the irony of telling me that "I am picking the polls I like" while you are citing the one poll is not lost on anyone.

 

You are effectively arguing that Trump is not only ignoring the lesson from 2018, but from the previous 40 years as well.

 

Will GOP Women keep loving Trump when they realize that the stock market is on pace for the worst December since the Great Depression?

 

Can you read the full article? It wants me to subscribe.

But I see in what is visible that these women are described as "what may be America's most determined political outliers."

 

Yeah, just like you started loving Trump when the stock market was reaching all time highs.

Keep grasping for reasons he can't possibly win. The desperation is very entertaining.

 

Google the headline.

 

We aren’t underestimating the evident problem Mr. Trump has among U.S. women voters generally. The percentage of the Fox sample self-identifying as Republican women is 17%. Mainly, the strength of their belief stands as a benchmark of Trump support. If they ever go wobbly on Mr. Trump in any significant way, he’s done.

From that perspective, the details inside the Fox poll get interesting.

On the state of the economy, whose strength so far is the Trump presidency’s biggest achievement, GOP women are largely positive. Eighty-nine percent approve of his handling of it.​

http://blackrepublican.blogspot.com/2018/12/women-who-love-trump.html

 

Says the lady who quoted a poll which found that, "The percentage of the Fox sample self-identifying as Republican women is 17%."

 

93% of GOP Women?


I see.



Way to early to talk about a landslide though.

And, back on topic, Most Americans think Trump is a LIAR and he hasn't gotten the message.

 

Did you start loving Obama when the stock market was reaching all time highs? No? Then you'll excuse me for refusing to ignore trump's status as a pathetic whiny snowflake of a bitch who is also a ****ing moron simply because the economy was doing well while he was president.

 

The economy doing well is EVERYTHING. Your downplaying its importance is just more proof of the desperation you feel.

 

So typical.

 

No, the economy is not everything. But if you think so, why aren't you terrified of the current track for the stock market. Again, this month is on pace for the worst December since the Great Depression.

 

Agreed.

"so typical" of Republican Women who support Trump.

I went out of my Way to find the Classiest Pictures possible.

So typical. Indeed.