Poll: "Minorities line up behind ... Donald Trump"

http://www.wnd.com/2015/12/minorities-line-up-behind-donald-trump/

Oh, "evil, supremacist, racist, Fascist, second Hitler etc." Donald Trump !

 

Well, of course they line up BEHIND him; those uppity beggars gotta know their place in the Frat Brat's kingdom!

 

`
Clout Research reeks of bias.

 

he is a reality tv star, many poor folks love him

 

are you saying only poor people like reality tv stars? I wonder how they would feel knowing what the left really thinks of them.

 

LOL!!! LOL!!! LOL!!!

Thank you, thank you, thank you very much for this wonderful New Years entertainment.

Now, on to REAL facts.

WND, a birther based, extreme right-wing reactionary organization, is quoting a "poll" from a debunked crackpot "pollster" out of Ohio called Fritz Wenzel. His polling "firm" which was called "Wenzel Polling" in 2012, is now called "Clout Research", but with the same owner and the same business address. It is a one-tune father-son firm from Columbus, Ohio. Fritz is the father, P.J. is the son. Both were once operatives for some of the roughest GOP campaigns out there.

Ok, the poll, which is supposed to be a national poll, is of exactly 445 voters and yet, it claims a MoE of +/-3.35, which is actually quite impossible. Even polls with 500 LV have the lowest possible MoE of +/-4.0, and more often than not, +/-4.5. Furthermore, Wenzel doesn't even take the time to let us know whether they are registered voters or likely voters - at least in the .pdf it released. That is a mistake that a real polling firm does not make. At its website, it claims that they are likely voters:

http://cloutpolitical.com/ (go to polling news),but also claims only 444 voters. However, the .pdf says otherwise. Apparently, Wenzel has a problem with very simple math.

So, the first polling lie has been exposed. There is no way to produce a national poll with a MoE of just +/-3.35 with only 444 or 445 in the survey group. That is a mathematical IMPOSSIBILITY.

Furthermore, the poll was conducted from 18-27 December, 2015, excepting 24-25 December, so this means that the polling window was 8 days. That is WAY too long for modern polling, which is usually conducted within a maximum time frame of 3 days, the reason being the compacted news cycle of the 21st century and ever quicker changing trends. So, an 8 day time-frame within 10 days is just too much, which will also quite automatically increase the margin of error.

The real margin of error for the poll itself, not even mentioning the "minority" vote, is at least +/-5 or more, which is also unacceptable among accredited pollsters.

Now, let's go to the actual document and look at the cross-tabs:

http://www.wnd.com/files/2015/12/WND12-2015Q3.pdf

By race, it adds up to the following:

(p. 5 of the .pdf)

Exactly 10 survey respondents out of 445 (2.24%) identified themselves as black. You cannot even make a MoE for just 10 voters.

So, when WND writes the following crap:

It is talking about 5 people who took a survey. LOL!!!

For 10 people, the MoE must be higher than +/-20 or more, so the statistic is absolutely useless.

On to the Latino vote:

31 respondents identified themselves as Latino (Hispanic), which is just shy of 7% of the survey members. Trump got 14, Bush got 11, Cruz got 2 and Rubio got ZERO. And so, from just 31 respondents, WND publishes an intellectual like like:

LOL

Similarly, in the "Asian" statistic, there were all of 16 respondents out of 445 (3.6%) who self-identified as Asian.

Well, ok.

The point is that such a crappy firm like Wenzel (who simply changed his firm's name) makes a statistic out of numbers that are so low, they are worthless.

To contrast, when WAPO put out the Latino FAV/UNFAV statistics for Trump, it made sure to indicate that the subgroup was so small, that the MoE was at least +/-7 or +/-8. And that was a group of more than 100!

So, the pollster is crap and the poll is crap.

Oh, and how did Wenzel do in 2012?

(I am gonna enjoy this).

In his own home state of Ohio, just before the election, Wenzel predicted Romney ahead of Obama by +3, 49 to 46. In reality, Obama won by +3, 50.5 to 47.5, so gee, Wenzel was only off by six full points in its own home state. LOL!

Here the data to back up my statement:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19fYKtMp7YDHJSduIsktRSkd9wEPjYQS9UNSRAzwjv5I/edit#gid=70

I also noticed this in an a post-polling analysis of 2012, released early in 2013:

http://statistikhengstswelt.blogspot.de/2013/02/the-moment-of-truth-how-did-pollsters-do.html

More specifically, here:

http://statistikhengstswelt.blogspot.de/2013/02/end-polling-table-usa-alphabetical-by_4.html

Wenzel released three end-polls, which I of course analysed.

Wenzel was off to the Right by 6 in Ohio and miscalled the state, it was off by 5 to the Right in Wisconsin and off by 4.4 to the Right in Missouri.
That same Missouri poll predicted an Akin (R) win over McCaskill, who actually tromped him in a massive landslide. The Ohio poll also claimed that Republican Josh Mandel was beating Sherrod Brown by 5 (Brown won by 6) and that Tommy Thompson was beating Baldwin by 2 in Wisconsin (Baldwin won). So, Wenzel has a TERRIBLE record and is considered a laughing stock among real pollsters with actual accreditation.

So, again, I thank you for this wonderful entertainment.

I thoroughly enjoyed ripping Wenzel a new (*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*). It was fun.

I eagerly await more wonderful entertainment!
Derideo_Te mertex perotista

 

Anagram of Clout is U Clot!

 

Just for the sake of full disclosure, I suppose it wouldn't hurt to publish that I have had email contact with this Fritz Wenzel dude, back in 2012. He noticed my statistics blog and was very unhappy that I wasn't publishing his stuff. And then he was unhappy when I criticized it. And then he sent me a nice email, long but just totally bat(*)(*)(*)(*) crazy, where he asked me how I could support a black man who wasn't even born in America, was secretly gay and was marked with the mark of the beast, yadayadyada....

It was at this moment that I realized that Mr. Wenzel's brain was probably caught in one on these:



However, it may have been a different bodily part that was sucked into the vortex first....

So, yeah, "crackpot" is almost a compliment when applied to Mr. Fritz Wenzel!

 

Ain't that about right!!

 

I'm very impressed that you took the time to take this piece of trash apart piece by piece.

Another right wingers pushed this survey a couple of days ago on another thread. Because he was ashamed to admit that his source was Wing Nut Daily, he only posted the Clout home page. It took me less than five minutes to walk it back to its real source, and to discover that this nonsense was making the usual round of right wing trash blogs.

 

Good detective work on the debunking job.

Next....

 

Since I love electoral statistics, I go through and record ALL of the numbers, even the junk numbers. And the beauty of this is that in the future, I have those numbers at my fingertips...... it's really quite fun, you know!

I mean, even a major Republican-house-effect pollster like Rasmussen (consistent mathematical bias of 4 points to the Right almost everywhere) is sometimes right. RAS predicted Obama +5 in it's final Pennsylvania poll and Obama won by +5.4. Even a broken clock can theoretically be right twice a day. But Wenzel is so terrible, he doesn't even qualify as a broken clock....



Nice to hear from you, btw.

 

A blogger looked at this after Donald used the results to show Black support. His comments and the real minority numbers can be found here.

Here's the thing, according to the poll that the OP linked to only 4 Blacks said they'd be voting for Trump:

 

Given that only 11% of blacks vote GOP that means that T-Rump has, at most, only 40% of the black GOP vote behind him.

Translated into the entire electorate terms the GOP has 23% and 11% of that is 2.5% and 40% of that is 1%.

That isn't how you win elections.

 

"Trump claims that he has a great relationship with 'the blacks'. Unless ‘the Blacks’ are a family of white people, I think he’s mistaken.” -Seth Meyers

 

Anyone with half a brain knows Trump is not racist. He's only saying extreme things to secure the far right GOPers. Once he gets the nomination, he'll move left. And if he does, this liberal may actually vote for him. I'm done with progressives, black lives matter, and feminists destroying this nation. I only hope he doesn't continue our endless Middle Eastern wars.

But I would agree that while most Trump supporters are not racist, most racists support Trump.

 

And Trump doesn't need the vote of 'black lives matter' to win.

 

Simply looking at some of the links on the right side of the page for WND.com....

-Hillary is most likely candidate to cut you off in traffic
-GOP 'ready for a revolution,' survey reveals
-Most Americans back Trump's call to halt Muslim influx

Yeah, this opinion blog doesn't wreak of right wing tinfoilhattery....

 

My hobby is walking back the more ridiculous stories that appear in right wing blogs.

I sometimes do it for left wing ones as well, but we don't have a steady stream of liberals posting dublious claims from oddly or obscurely named websites. claiming that this; or that organization with a vaguely official name claimed something or other.

I've been doing it for years, and I've amassed quite a catalog of right wing front groups and studied their tactics. You might be surprised at how many of them there are. It's not uncommon to see half a dozen front groups in the same small office (Family Research Council, Conservative News Service and the Media Research Center are a good case in point, all operating out of a second story walk up in Alexandria).

This cycle, I have been particularly fascinated by the right wing direct mail scam known as the Ben Carson campaign. It's pretty obvious with not too much research that this is a fundraising scam dressed up as a presidential campaign. Yet, outside of a few stories in places like Mother Jones, there is little reporting on it, even though all the connections and the money laundering are happening more or less in plain sight (it's not illegal).

The poll that was the focus of the OP on this thread is very typical of the sort of spin campaign that is very common in the "echo chamber" of the right wing blogsphere.

This poll was commissioned by the ultra right wing website World Net Daily, which has been the national headquarters of birtherism and many other tinfoil hat crazy notions, all of which WND happily promotes for the entertainment and validation of its audience.

Clout and its owners have a long and well documented history of producing conclusions looking for premises, and using maufactured statistics of dubious quality to suggest that two plus two equals five.

But bear in mind that the purpose of a poll like this is to validate the prejudices of the target audience, not to inform or enlighten.

And since right wing media is essentially an entertainment media that thrives on feeding the fears and prejudices of its audience, a product manufactured to do just that quickly makes the rounds.''

Within hours of the Clout poll being pushed by WND, it was featured on at least two dozen other right wing blog and websites. This echo chamber has the effect of validating the story to the right wing audience by virtue of repetition. No one in the audience will walk the story back or care who Clout is or research its dubious past.

They, like the OP and a couple of other right wingers here, will take it at face value and buy the lie (and in this case repeat it).

This is a standard pattern in right wing media. And it has been going on for years. It was one of the mechanisms that the Bush White House used heavily when it was trying to scare people about Saddam Hussein. The more lurid claims that Ahmed Chalabi fed to Wolfowitz and Pearle would be fed, without vetting, to right wing bloggers like WND and NewsMax, and from there parroted all over right wing media, and then repeated again by right wing talk radio, and finally echoes by Fox.

That's the pattern.

 

LOL!!!

WND.

wing nut daily.

the poll is a joke

 

yeah, just look at all the minorities at his many campaign events.

 

T-Rump is fundamentally dishonest and unethical therefore I will not be party to imposing him on this nation and the rest of the world.

- - - Updated - - -

He will need much more than just the votes of whites without college degrees in order to win.

 

Thank you ... for doing the job that Fox failed to do - check out and verify sources. Or maybe Fox does not care to verify sources as long as the words fit what they believe their demographic wants to hear.

 

The ones being forcibly removed to the sound of N-word epithets?