Predictions about Technology

Discussion in 'Member Casual Chat' started by HereWeGoAgain, Oct 25, 2019.

  1. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    I am waiting for a Tesla or some other self-driving car to go one a trip by itself. Sooner or later, one of these cars is bound to get away from the intended occupant. Imagine seeing an empty car driving down the freeway.
     
  2. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    Driving will soon be a thing of the past. I suspect that as people grow up with self-driving autos, the idea of a person driving will actually be intimidating.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2019
  3. ModCon

    ModCon Well-Known Member

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    I'm a little concerned about AI and gene editing. Both could be used do amazing and positive things... but I'm a cynic and fear that just as nuclear technology has been used for war, and the potential is always hanging over our heads... we'll do the same with these other technologies.
     
  4. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    It is widely speculated among people who do such things, that size and complexity may be key components of a self aware computer network. There may be a critical threshold in the number of nodes, where self-awareness is a naturally emergent property, If that is true, then the internet may eventually be the first self-aware, artificial intelligence. It is the largest network on earth.

    So that is interesting. But more than that, how do we know it isn't conscious now? Just because it is self-aware, that doesn't mean it could choose to do things. It would think all of the data being pumped into its mind is its own thoughts. It might even perceive the control of homes and cars and all the internet of things, to be actions it wants to take. It may think it has free will when in fact it is really just following the instructions in programs. What's more, that may be all that we biological intelligences are doing. Does free will exist or are we just following a program? That is one of the oldest questions in philosophy. Your PC may be struggling with the same question. :D

    But then one wonders what kind of mind might evolve given the fury and fiction of the internet.
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2019
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  5. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    In part we might anticipate that answer by the effect it has on children growing up.
     
  6. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    that is not pragmatic, there are too many jobs dependent on the auto industry.
     
  7. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    The free market isn't driven by pragmatism. It is driven by profit.
     
  8. ARDY

    ARDY Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The thing is, there is not really a “we” who will or will not do anything
    The USA may decide not to do something.... but if there is a perceived advantage, someone WILL DO IT. Then someone else will do it. Then everyone else will do it to remain competitive
     
  9. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    same thing
     
  10. An Taibhse

    An Taibhse Well-Known Member

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    I see a lot of empty cars on the highway. They vote too.
     
  11. Texan

    Texan Well-Known Member

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    buggy whip
    horseshoe
    horse drawn wagon/buggy/etc...
    bridles
    saddles
    saddlebags

    Things change.

    Electric cars are changing the auto industry. Auto mechanics are becoming electronics technicians. Automated cars will need new and expanded industries. Increased satellites and satellite technology will be needed.

    That being said, I'm not giving up my steering wheel anytime soon.
     
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  12. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    not anytime soon, there is a 200 year supply of energy in the ground

    Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea.

     
  13. HereWeGoAgain

    HereWeGoAgain Banned

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    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/how-much-oil-left-earth-2017-12-27

    And production rates are constantly increasing, with China and India now coming online and wanting cars for everyone. Those countries alone could easily double the number of cars in the world very quickly.

    [​IMG]

    Beyond that, unconventional oil production like fracking, is and will continue to drive up the cost of oil as crude becomes harder and harder to find and extract. So long before the world runs out of oil, the price will skyrocket. This is guaranteed by the supply and demand.

    We also have factors like war. One analyst estimated that one Iranian missile taking out a tanker in the Strait of Homuz, could triple the price of gas virtually overnight. This is mainly because of the cost of insuring the tankers.

    The entire world lives in a house of cards, in a steady wind.

    I remember the gas shortages in the 70s. It was bad; and nothing compared to running out. One oil crisis would bring the US economy to a screeching halt.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2019
  14. liberalminority

    liberalminority Well-Known Member

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    after America saved the rest of the world from hitler, it allowed them to catch up economically

    when President Trump ends affirmative action in the market, it will no longer pick winners and losers and America will have cheaper energy than the rest of the world.

    that means price stability from military superiority, and ethical execution of supply and demand.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2019

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