This is my gut feeling as well, but I have absolutely nothing to base it on, other than a feeling that Earth isn't really that special. If Earth isn't special, then the conditions for life will be found in a lot of places and life itself will be found in a lot of places. The problem with the above is that we might indeed be very special when it comes to life. The odds might be ten trillion to 1, and we just happen to be one of the ten trillion. We have no way of determining the probability space because we're working with a sample size of one when it comes to life: Earth. Yes, the odds would stretch, but from what to what? 90% chance alien life exists to 5% chance they're actually observing us? 99.99% chance alien life exists and 90% chance they're observing us? Which of those do we use? Not quite yet. There are some telescopes coming online in a few years that might allow us to look at atmospheres of exoplanets. But for now, we can't image these planets directly (I think there are a couple exoplanets we've collected a few photons from? When I meant "decent sized", I meant for an alien race that's more advanced than us. Say, telescopes 100X the size of the ones we have. By observing the atmosphere of a planet closely enough, one could infer to a high degree that life exists.