Probability Alien Life Watching Us Cannot be Determined

Discussion in 'Science' started by FlamingLib, Sep 29, 2018.

  1. cerberus

    cerberus Banned Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25,553
    Likes Received:
    5,359
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If that simple logic needs to be explained to someone then they won't get it. 'You can't open a closed mind, young Cerby.', as my nanny used to say as she dandled me on her knee. And if you don't believe that simple folklore just read the post above this one??
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2018
  2. 4Runner

    4Runner Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    Messages:
    45
    Likes Received:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Gender:
    Male
    What?
    I have an Education Physics, Moscow State University, which corresponds to the American "Master of Technology" ...
    Tell me, my young and stupid American boy about your problems with Physics ..
    I will laugh.
    :roflol:
     
  3. 4Runner

    4Runner Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    Messages:
    45
    Likes Received:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Gender:
    Male
    There are no Aliens.
    There are aliens who live on the island of America and believe that they have Freedom and Democracy ..

    One day, Rothschild and Rockefeller looked across the ocean and saw an island inhabited by Indians and bandits.
    They said:
    "We will tell them that they are free, but we will give 2 gods
    Rothschild chose the donkey
    Rockefeller picked an elephant.

    Since then, the bandits who live on the island of America have been praying to donkeys and elephants. And they believe that they are free.
    :deadhorse:
     
  4. FlamingLib

    FlamingLib Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2018
    Messages:
    2,328
    Likes Received:
    1,194
    Trophy Points:
    113
    ^^ wtf?
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2018
  5. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Messages:
    27,729
    Likes Received:
    8,720
    Trophy Points:
    113
    And here we have an excellent commercial for Moscow State......Home of Cicus Bear with funny hat.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2018
  6. Mamasaid

    Mamasaid Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2018
    Messages:
    3,755
    Likes Received:
    1,218
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    ^^

    If only every paid Russian troll were this incompetent, Trump would be at home in NYC, trying to figure out how to get Russian criminals to pay for his next bad business venture..
     
    FlamingLib and tecoyah like this.
  7. 4Runner

    4Runner Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2018
    Messages:
    45
    Likes Received:
    9
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Gender:
    Male
    By the way, I still confuse ... Trump - is it a donkey or an elephant?
    As for Russian trolling and interference in the American elections.
    I will say this:
    It is very good if the Russians learned to influence the American elections. This is a response to the election of Boris Yeltsin in 1996 and to the American intervention in Ukraine.
    Americans, you crossed the "red line"

    Unfortunately, Putin is too weak, so you Americans can relax
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
  8. Mamasaid

    Mamasaid Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2018
    Messages:
    3,755
    Likes Received:
    1,218
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Neither. Trump is a malignant narcissist and so possesses no ideology outside of appreciating that which benefits himself in that very moment. If bigger government makes Trump get applause, Trump likes bigger government. If smaller government gets him applause, he likes smaller government. I hope that helps.
     
  9. EarthSky

    EarthSky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2018
    Messages:
    1,836
    Likes Received:
    904
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Consider an interesting idea. Self replicating von Neumann probes that spread out from a posited extra-terrestrial civilization within our own galaxy and search for resources to replicate themselves and/or planets capable of supporting life. Once they find a likely planet or even find life, the probes begin the replication process again and and again and observe that planet while more and more newly replicated probes fan out and continue the search.

    [​IMG]
    "
    Let’s take a look at one of John von Neumann’s most fascinating contributions to science: the Von Neumann probe. Simply put, a Von Neumann probe is a self-replicating device that could, one day, be used to explore every facet of the Milky Way in a relatively small window of time.

    The general idea is to build a device out of materials that are readily available and easily accessible out in space, like on rocky planets or small moons. Once it finds a suitable destination, it lands and mines the material it needs to build even more devices, which, in turn, land on other planets and moons and build even more."

    It has been estimated that with technology that allowed such self-replicating probes to travel 1/10 the speed of light, it would take these probes on the order of half a million years to explore the entire galaxy and this exploration would continue even if the original civilization had become extinct or wiped itself out.

    https://futurism.com/von-neumann-probe

    My addendum to this idea is what if the von Neumann probes had a biological component or even some kind of holographic uploading technology that allowed the probes not only to self-replicate but also to use local resources to build biological constructs of the original race that created them - thereby creating an almost immortal species based on some kind of coded information such as DNA. Using a similar code, the aliens could literally reconstruct themselves or even use supercomputers to upload original personalities into some kind of holographic or non-biological construct.

    Anyway, I thought it was an interesting idea to get around the vast distances to travel around the galaxy or even beyond.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
  10. EarthSky

    EarthSky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2018
    Messages:
    1,836
    Likes Received:
    904
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Drake Equation:

    N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L

    https://www.space.com/25219-drake-equation.html

    R* = The rate of formation of stars suitable for the development of intelligent life.

    fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.

    ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.

    fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.

    fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges.

    fc = The fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.

    L = The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
     
  11. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    18,761
    Likes Received:
    737
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If this joint is 13.8 billion light years in age/distance, with billions and billions of stars, with trillions of planets, how would it be possible that only Earth holds intelligent life forms?

    Intelligent life can arise and extinguish every million years, and during this timeline, detectable technology might only exist in the most recent 100-150 years, so chances of two civilizations communicating are a crap-shoot at best. (L in Drake's equation)
     
    tecoyah likes this.
  12. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Messages:
    27,729
    Likes Received:
    8,720
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I like to think of a beach...maybe a mile long. 50 poprocks are painted dayglow orange and somewhere in the sand. You have ten minutes to find one during a hurricane with a magnifying glass and snorkel. Oh...did I mention they may be off shore?
     
  13. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    18,761
    Likes Received:
    737
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The vast time/distance of our Universe suggests to me that either planetary species will never come into contact with each other, or, there are some yet-discovered physics. Even with some kick-ass physics that allow SOL travel, the distances remain enormous and probably untenable to a human. Are we relegated to sending/receiving alien radio signals every 100 or 1000 years...assuming we will have the ability to communicate? Since we don't know of any alien visits or communications, perhaps this tells us there are no new physics...
     
  14. EarthSky

    EarthSky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2018
    Messages:
    1,836
    Likes Received:
    904
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Are you sure we haven't had any visits or communication? Just because we can't have an adult conversation about these events without being labelled a loonie or weirdo or having debunking site go nuts trying to bend all the evidence to their preconceived conclusion, does not mean they are not happening:

    "The military personnel who are encountering these phenomena tell remarkable stories. In one example, over the course of two weeks in November 2004, the USS Princeton, a guided-missile cruiser operating advanced naval radar, repeatedly detected unidentified aircraft operating in and around the Nimitz carrier battle group, which it was guarding off the coast of San Diego. In some cases, according to incident reports and interviews with military personnel, these vehicles descended from altitudes higher than 60,000 feet at supersonic speeds, only to suddenly stop and hover as low as 50 feet above the ocean. The United States possesses nothing capable of such feats."

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...ufos-why-doesnt-the-pentagon-care/2018/03/09/

    https://www.wired.com/story/what-is-up-with-those-pentagon-ufo-videos/





    If you are really interested in this subject, I can show you some fascinating and well documented encounters that may change your entire opinion on this subject - or at least give you something cool to think about in your spare time :)
     
  15. EarthSky

    EarthSky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2018
    Messages:
    1,836
    Likes Received:
    904
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    So, this means the probability is zero? Our current knowledge of physics is the pinnacle of understanding this mysterious planet and vast universe of possibilities?

    This place is way more mysterious and complex than people understand as we have been socialized to see the world in a materialist/reductionist way and increasingly not to question.

    Lol, I'm not trying to throw a bunch of woo at you either. Only trying to suggest that we are conditioned to scoff at things we don't understand even when the profound mystery of the abyss is staring us in plain sight.

    Myself included, of course.
     
  16. Mamasaid

    Mamasaid Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2018
    Messages:
    3,755
    Likes Received:
    1,218
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Unfortunately, extraordinary claims requires extraordinary evidence. As of now, there is not a shred of evidence for any of those claims, much less the volume and extraordinary nature of evidence that one would need to give these claims any credibility.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
  17. yasureoktoo

    yasureoktoo Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    9,809
    Likes Received:
    2,335
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree here, but the sheer magnitude of claims, from the beginning of recorded history, adds some credence to it.

    If someone wants to make a claim, they have to get past the powers that be, making it a little difficult.
     
  18. Mamasaid

    Mamasaid Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2018
    Messages:
    3,755
    Likes Received:
    1,218
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    It does? Would you say the same about the claims of ghosts, or Bigfoot?

    Galileo got past "the powers that be", because he had incontrovetible, compelling evidence, and a mountain of it.
     
  19. EarthSky

    EarthSky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2018
    Messages:
    1,836
    Likes Received:
    904
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    There's a lot of evidence. In fact, there's whole reams of evidence going back decades including radar hits from naval and aviation sources along with mass sightings from very credible witnesses. Did you watch any of the videos or material I posted? That does not mean proof of anything including that these are aliens but please do not delude yourself that there isn't a shred of evidence. This is just skeptic/debunker twisting of the narrative to suit a predetermined conclusion.
    Don't fall into this and try to confuse people unless you have some purpose for spreading Randi-like pseudo-intellectual factology here - in that case, carry on:)

    I would take take eyewitness evidence from military and naval sources over the twittering of Randi and his fact-benders anyday.

    Still doesn't mean proof of aliens or anything but evidence - there are mountains of it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
  20. yasureoktoo

    yasureoktoo Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    9,809
    Likes Received:
    2,335
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Galileo is actually a good example. He had evidence, and spent the last 10 years of his life on house arrest.
    He rocked the boat, and paid for it.
     
    EarthSky likes this.
  21. EarthSky

    EarthSky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2018
    Messages:
    1,836
    Likes Received:
    904
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    [QUOTE
    Galileo got past "the powers that be", because he had incontrovetible, compelling evidence, and a mountain of it.[/QUOTE]

    Lol, actually, Galileo was sentenced to life inprisonment for heresy and died under house arrest. The let him die at home because of poor health but still....

    It wasn't until society caught up to observation much later that Copernican theory became widely accepted.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
  22. EarthSky

    EarthSky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2018
    Messages:
    1,836
    Likes Received:
    904
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Sorry, missed this post. Couldn't agree more.
     
  23. Mamasaid

    Mamasaid Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2018
    Messages:
    3,755
    Likes Received:
    1,218
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Neither of those is evidence of alien craft, sorry. Radar blips are only evidence that the tadar sensor detected something which may or may not be an object, and eyewitness accounts are not good evidence for an extraordinary claim.

    So, like i said...not a shred of evidence.
     
  24. Mamasaid

    Mamasaid Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2018
    Messages:
    3,755
    Likes Received:
    1,218
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Galileo is a good example of why you guys have not a shred of good evidence for this claim, as you possess nothing resembling the compelling empirical evidence possessed by Galileo that could not be explained any other way, and, after 70+ years, have not advanced your position one iota. Galileo upended an entire religion. So Galileo's experience is not comparable to yours and stands in direct contrast to it.

    If Galileo's experience were anything like yours, that would mean Galileo's case consisted entirely of: "here is a picture of a blob in the sky, and I SWEAR I saw it move a certain way!"

    Sorry people...not even close.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2018
  25. yasureoktoo

    yasureoktoo Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2018
    Messages:
    9,809
    Likes Received:
    2,335
    Trophy Points:
    113
    NO, There is no evidence, however we have tons of circumstantial evidence.
    Most of which can only be classified as evidence when the time comes.

    We can look at places like Puma Punka, and say there is no evidence that humans were as advanced as needed to build the structures. There is no evidence of anyone building them.
    But they exist, you can see and touch them.
     

Share This Page