Putin is losing in Ukraine. But he's winning in Russia

The Great Buffoon (aka Joe Biden) has once again completely fouled things up. His ill conceived sanctions has resulted in food shortages in the US and succeeded in unifying the Russian elites and common people alike.

"In polling and anecdote alike, Putin appears to be consolidating support from the Russian public, rallying a nation that feels itself to be as he portrays it — unjustly surrounded and besieged."

The original article is behind a pay wall, but a precis can be found here.

https://hotair.com/headlines/2022/04/03/putin-is-losing-in-ukraine-but-hes-winning-in-russia-n459671

 

If you were going to be arrested and imprisoned for opposing Putin's Russian invasion of Ukraine, you'd keep your mouth shut and pretend you endorsed it too !!!

 

We in the west think that the Russians must be against Putin not only because he got them into this war unnecessarily but even more so because he is losing the war. Then I heard someone on one of the news shows make this point which definitely makes sense. The Russian people are supporting Putin because - and maybe only because - if they lose this war they will be the laughing stock of the world. And the only way to avoid that is to win the war or damage Ukraine so badly it will be impossible for Ukraine to claim they won.

 

Well, according to the theory that Pycckia seems to be promoting, Biden's acting like he supported Putin's moves, would have been the best way to fight against them. No wonder, then, that Pycckia holds Trump, that agreeable, Russian foe, in such high regard.

 

When it comes to mucking things up Biden is your man!

 

What is the point of capturing a country which you have totally decimated and destroyed???? All you have won is a financial disaster???

 

Given the wealth of natural resources that Ukraine has, I am a little surprised you would ask that. Russia doesn't sell much in the way of finished goods, it's bread and butter is selling raw materials.



Regarding scorched earth, we should all remember the "shock and awe" used by America when it decimated the infrastructure of Middle East countries. It is hard to pretend we care when a European country's infrastructure is damaged by an external power when none of us cared when we did it to third world countries incapable of harming us.

 

That's a good point. I'd read an article a few days ago (sorry I can't find it so I can't link it) that some anti war Russians are switching sides. The article was trying to make the point that Putin's propaganda was working (in Russia). But winning the war so they aren't embarrassed sounds plausible.

American leftists can't really grasp that because they love to have their country humiliated, but I think most people in most countries have some sort of national pride and want their country to do well.

 

You take their rare Earth minerals and their pipelines which are worth billions.... destroying the civilian population is of no concern to you when you are an Authoritarian.

 

Russia already had so much land, for their relatively small population, to explore and find out exactly what they already have as far as natural resources elements and minerals goes. Ukraine's fortunes were largely based on the people's intellect and the agricultural output of their country.

 

I’ll just add that while the decimation of Ukraine might not have been Putins plan A, making 40 million homeless and sending them packing to suck on the socialist tit of Europe which stands a good chance of bankrupting and toppling them like dominoes might not be a bad plan B for him

 

Natural resources.....

 

You deny NATO a base on your southern flank.

 

Why do you think Russia would pay for reconstruction? That is an American thing, not a Russian thing.

 

To be fair to the seeder of the thread there is some poll out now that says Putin has the support of 83% of the Russian people polled. I was surprised by that considering all the reports of anti war protesters there. It could be that the Russian people outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg still cling to visions of Empire today as the Tsars and Communists of the past did and today they value that more than free markets or individual freedoms for themselves. It seems that the body bag count and the images of the entire Ukrainian civilian population willing to go to war and take up arms rather than be a part of Russia again wounded their national pride since Putin conditioned them to believe Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators.

 

My observation is that Biden's strategy is a failure and strengthens Putin's hold on the country and harms the US more than it harms Russia. If you have something that counters that observation, let's hear it.

 

The leftists will be delighted, then, when Biden caves to Putin and begs him, hat in hand, to sell us oil and fertilizer.

 

Yeah, maybe the allies should have just played nice with Hitler in WWII, that would have made the German people turn against him. Are you for real?

It's funny, though, that everything is always Biden's fault. As if Biden could control a sociopathic dictator, who doesn't care if he kills 100,000s of people and makes millions homeless, converting a whole country to rubble, just to stroke his own ego. To think that the Russian people actually have real information to judge what is going on.... They are all under government propaganda and dissent can be punished with imprisonment or death. It's amazing that the number of Russians supporting Putin is only 83%. I guess even Putin knows that claiming 100% support would just look plain silly.

 

The allies didn't play nice, they declared war and were willing to fight him on the battlefields. They didn't sanction Hitler and say if you kill more Jews we'll sanction you more, but if you just stick with the numbers you're killing now we won't add more sanctions. This is what Biden is doing and it's complete lunacy. This war was completely avoidable if Biden didn't give a string of green lights to Putin.

 

Putin has already won this ever since Russia instituted a quasi-gold standard by standardizing the rate that their banks will pay for gold. It seems to be working since along with the other rouble-based requirements, Russia's currency has almost completely recovered from the sanctions. I'm sure that Russian media have a lot to say about that.

The western media haven't admitted it yet but this is checkmate. Next is the petro-rouble: if Europe pays for gas in roubles, the rouble will stage a full recovery or go even higher than it has historically been. If they don't, most of the industry in countries like Germany, Italy etc. will be faced with up to double the previous gas prices and the entire industries of these countries would go under. The government could attempt to subsidize the operating costs of their entire industrial sectors but doing this right after COVID, while they're also trying to transition to new energy sources, would be way too much of an investment. So this means that they either pay the roubles (Russia wins) or their economies suffer what would possibly be the worst crash in history.

After this plan works out, Russia has also signaled that they intend to charge in roubles for potash (fertilizer) and food. A refusal to do this would add a farming and food crisis to completely shut down industry, which would probably spread to nearby areas (the Muslim world and north Africa) which would probably lead to another migrant crisis.

So, Europe basically has to either create rouble reserves and pay in roubles for vital things or it could pretty much be destroyed in an almost biblical series of events. This situation could easily persist for five to ten years until the new alternative energy infrastructure, which is unlikely to actually work, is in place.

I could go on about this for awhile but long story short, even most of the world's uranium is currently mined in Russia, so there appears to not even be a theoretical way forward for the EU on this that doesn't involve Russia winning the next several years.

 

He’s after the mineral and agricultural resources since Russia is largely a third world country without Ukraine.

 

I guess you haven't been listening to the news: Putin has closed down all independent media outlets in Russia (since the start of the "special military operation"-- not war), and has attempted to block Western internet sites, as well, so that a majority of Russians, especially the older ones, who don't know the internet tricks, are limited to only censored state media, which is not painting an accurate picture of things. (Also, any poll of Russians, asking their opinion of their government, must be taken with some salt, because the people are paranoid about their government, so may be hesitant to stray from the approving line, in what some of them could suspect as being a police sting operation.)

I do accept that a majority of Russians, still, are buying the propaganda, and so are supportive of the war, I mean, of the special operation. They don't have an accurate picture of it, though.

But the point of Pycckia's post, had more to do with Putin's reaction. And anyone I have heard interviewed, who knows Putin (former Russian, high government officials; the former, richest man in Russia who, 6 months after mentioning that he is was considering running against Putin, found himself imprisoned for 10 years) says that Putin only responds to negative consequences. Giving in to him will only encourage him. That former richest man said that it is a mistake to rule out NATO troops getting involved, because Putin would take that as a green light. Of course, when President Biden says this, he has a wider audience in mind, than just Putin. And, we have raised the possibility, albeit vaguely, that Putin's use of chemical weapons, if egregious enough, could change our stance on troops.

 

It is premature to reach conclusions, as Russia & Ukraine are still locked in battle. While you may assume that Russia will "win," that's what nearly all assumed would happen, and much sooner than this. Yet, we are more than five weeks into this invasion, and Putin's original plan, for a quick toppling of the Ukranian government, has failed. The Russians are now in the midst of consolidating their forces, choosing to "reorganize," away from areas where Ukranians were actively, and successfully, driving them back, to retake their land. Had we done nothing, there would surely have been a worse result, for Ukraine, and a better result for Russia; so, measured against inaction, I think the reasonable conclusion is that NATO's strategy, as it was proposed & pushed for, by President Biden, has been successful thus far, in denying Putin victory.

The only strategy that could have been more effective, would have involved direct military conflict with Russia. This is not as simple a thing, in real life, as it is for people to suggest, online. First of all, it is very clear that most, or all, of our NATO allies, did not want to get in a war with Russia. And our mutual defense treaty would complicate matters, if the U.S. were to unilaterally attack Russia, from European soil; not to mention that the American people were not onboard with another war, this one over Ukraine; or that Biden did not even have authority to engage Russia in war, and Congress was not ready to give it to him.

So, the current circumstance is not ideal, but there was no realistic way to achieve the ideal. Therefore, to blame Biden for not achieving the impossible, is the lamest of criticisms, from someone who has not even offered an alternate approach. In the real world, the current circumstance, is the best outcome-- a stalemate-- as could have been reasonably expected.

Economic sanctions will continue to take their toll, as will the flow of weapons, from the West. But that does not mean that our response is static, from this point forward. What further steps we take, however, will be dependent upon what is achievable, with our allies, as well as on what course Putin pursues, in his war. It is already clear, though, that we have shown more resolve, & taken more effective measures, than Putin had anticipated. No doubt, he wishes that we had just minded our own business.

 

Putin is winning as long as he maintains his power. The Russian people are losing in direct proportion.

 

I would give you a million likes for this post if I could. I don't understand why we "value" some people more than others and it's heartbreaking that so many are calling for us to jump in and help the Ukrainians while simultaneously turning a blind eye to all the people, including other Americans, that need our help. There's no reason for it and only we can make the change.