Re-electing Trump 2020 and current shutdown

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Qohelet, Jan 14, 2019.

  1. Qohelet

    Qohelet Active Member

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    Now it's government (partial) shutdown and when it's prolonged enough there is consequenses so it's hurting republicans and/or democrats. I mean there is way to spin it and blame each other - always been like that in politics.

    If shutdown is like 6 months long what you think how it will have effect?

    6 months shutdown is pretty extreme and also gonna be difficult times for those who live paycheck to paycheck ordinary life.

    Now it look like republicans and Trump are 100% sure about need for border wall so it's all out for wall. Shutdown is Trump's deal making mechanism - but it also can backfire horribly. I hope people in DC make smart moves and solve this issue ASAP. Prolonged shutdown can be nightmare in many ways.

    Is that Trump's shutdown-strategy smart and can ensure he's re-election?

    Somehow it's interesting to see what's happening in America, even as finn. I live far away in small country and our politics is kinda boring compared to current American circus :)
     
  2. Crawdadr

    Crawdadr Well-Known Member

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    His strategy is kind of his only option. His base would turn on him if he didnt. He knows he cannot get reelected without his base. What he does not know is can he get reelected with his base. That will be the interesting thing to watch.
     
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  3. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    MS-13 has sided with Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats.
     
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  4. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The shutdown, as well as the wall, are almost purely based on trump's strategy of "all base, all the time." It is a strategy that he pursued from the very beginning. It is one he continued to pursue throughout his entire presidency. That is reflected in the polling where he has never gotten above a 50% approval rating (usually hovering around 40%) and his disapproval rating has remained consistently above 50%. On the other hand, his base and the GOP at large, love him. His approval rating amongst the GOP declared voters is closer to 80% and has remained such. Support for his wall and support for him in the shutdown (whether you blame him or the democrats) is also similarly reflected in that polling. The GOP love the wall and they blame democrats. Everyone else, on the average, blames Trump and opposes the wall.

    The 2018 midterms helped to demonstrate the limitations of that plan. It helped in certain areas where the GOP is strongest, but it cost him everywhere else. And that pattern existed despite the fact that Trump's base was extremely active in the midterms (unlike Obama's base in 2010 and Clinton's base in 1994). In essence, Trump should have learned the lesson that his base is not enough.

    But he did not. Instead, the wall and shutdown, are solely designed to help ensure that he does not get impeached.
     
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  5. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Do you think that comment is relevant to the OP?
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2019
  6. Capt Nice

    Capt Nice Well-Known Member

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    We have to consider the source.
     
  7. Capt Nice

    Capt Nice Well-Known Member

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    One of trump's campaign slogans was "what do you have to lose?". I think a number of people that voted for him have found out 'what they have to lose'. I doubt he will last thru his first term and if he does I know for damn sure he won't get re-elected. As it was he got elected by a minority of citizens.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2019
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  8. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes
     
  9. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Did you use your brain to come to that conclusion?
     
  10. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Seeing how most of the people in DC that are out of work because of the shutdown are Democrats I am sure that they won’t be running to Republicans for help.
     
  11. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The shutdown will not last much longer, once subsidies stop — farms start closing and corporate America’s stock starts to drop — federal employees start missing house payments — and food stamps don’t go out you will see this come to an end quickly.

    We have at most 2 more weeks maybe 3, trump will likely cave because giving in to his demands would be suicide for the Dems, and his base will ignore it like they do everything — with the takeaway that trump was “bullied and he cared so much for the country he allowed it to open without his wall”.
     
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  12. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Exactly.

    Trump MUST cave in, or the Shutdown will last until 2021.

    And, of course, his willing "base" (as always) will find a way to support him.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2019
  13. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Whatever my brain housing group spits out I use.
     
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  14. Qohelet

    Qohelet Active Member

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    My guess is that it will last a bit over month from now. Trump is in trouble if it last way longer. Trump may cave in, but not in few next weeks. Solid ignorance is working for Trump (it's main reason why he's not taking advice from others) in way to keep shutdown in place. That recent burger serving was - at least in my eyes - bad and disrespectful move. Maybe it was Trump's way to point out something - as long as shutdown continue people gonna get some trash, live without paychecks, etc. Blaming democrats all the way over wall is just silly and bad politics.

    Trump is master of deal making? Only 6 bankruptcy and so much winning later on. Trump needs to prove how smart he is. Now it's time to shine, Trump.
     
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  15. TrackerSam

    TrackerSam Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    bawl.gif But he won a majority of states.
     
  16. Blaster3

    Blaster3 Well-Known Member

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    if he decides to run again in 2020, he gets my vote... best part is i'll register dem again just so i can vote for the weakest candidate in the blue primaries... maybe ortez ???
     
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  17. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Thats sad, this isn’t football. You should want the strongest candidate to win but that seems to be the new standard of winning.
    Cheat, lie, manipulate

    Oh well, the people get the government they deserve I guess.
     
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  18. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I recognize that the crimes that the Trump Justice Department Special Counsel is uncovering, in his vital mission "to oversee the previously-confirmed FBI investigation of Russian government efforts to influence the 2016 presidential election and related matters," may dictate that the lying lowlife abscond or be removed from office, but am still hoping that Trump can cling to the presidency until his term mercifully expires.

    Unfortunately, even if that occurs, the prospect of the disgraced fake heading the GOP ticket in 2020 is as unlikely as his keeping his promises to release his tax returns, replace the ACA with "something terrific!" that covers "everybody!" at "less cost!," or makes Mexico pay for his $5.7 billion "big, beautiful wall!"
    There are Republicans aplenty eager to fumigate their befouled Party.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    The government isn't shut down. Want proof? The IRS still collects taxes.

    What's it say about a government that has >800,000 non-essential personnel?
    Simple: We can not only afford to shut it down, we should.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2019
  20. Hoosier8

    Hoosier8 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    While dems party in Puerto Rico with lobbyists and leave DC this weekend.
     
  21. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Americans have mighty short memories. I don't think this shutdown will effect the 2020 elections one bit. As soon as the government is reopened, then another hot issue or major event occurs, the shutdown will be ancient history. Usually for an event, happening to effect an election it has to happen within a couple to three months of it.

    The wall is a purely partisan issue. 81% of Republicans for it, 83% of Democrats opposed. Question 19.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1xbksrgzje/econTabReport.pdf

    That's about as partisan as one can get. Independents, the less to non-partisan's are caught in the middle. 37% for, 44% against. With the margin of error in the poll, that close to being even. A plurality against. But there is really no hard core feelings one way or the other on the wall among independents as there is with Republicans and Democrats. 19% are unsure or just don't give a dang.

    What's interesting is 41% of independents blame Democrats in congress a lot for the shut down, 20% a little. Total 61%. 52% of independents blame Trump a lot, 12% a little. Total 64%. Questions 43A and 43C above. Not much difference between 64 and 61% total. There is for assigning a lot of blame though, 41 to 52.

    Another way to look at this, among independents since Republicans assign the blame to Democrats and Democrats are assigning the blame to Republicans. Is that independents, the less to non-partisans, the non-affiliated with either party, those in the middle of both parties, the center, center right and center of this country. 61% of all independents assigned some blame to both the democrats in congress and to Trump.

    Neither is escaping free. Not in a 100% pure partisan issue where middle America, those not identifying with either party is being held hostage by both Trump and the Democrats in congress as they have their very partisan battle.
     
  22. Qohelet

    Qohelet Active Member

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    Shutdown is making long lasting negative impact in your society. Damage is so wide in this case and people don't even get it yet. Maybe I'm wrong about this, but that's what I'm thinking (as finn). That's not something easy to forget when people have serious problems, getting food and other basic stuff for living.
     
  23. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Unsupportable nonsense -- 98.5% of Americans are -completely- unaffected by the shutdown.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019
  24. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    There are 800,000 federal workers and roughly 4 million contractors that rely on federal contracts. They are either not being paid by the federal government or seen a significant source of revenue drop dramatically.

    There are ~325 million in the United States. Pure statistics will tell you that 4.8 million out of a population of 325 million is more than 0.01%.
     
  25. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

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    I see very little to no chance of a 6 months shutdown
     

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