Rural America’s Red Wall: Democratic 2018 Midterm Plans Just Took Another Hit.....

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by MMC, Jul 17, 2017.

  1. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Ahahahahah.....the Demos and the leftness are being told by their very own. Forget about 2018 mid-term. More of their hope and dreams being dashed. They have nothing to show for all that rhetoric about Trump. Lets just hope they keep on being the disfunction and give the Repubs a Super Majority in the Senate. What say ye?




    For the die-hard Trump supporter, polls don’t account for much, especially when the media drools over the president’s historic low approval ratings. Given the state of the Democratic Party, the lack of good quality candidates, and the absence of a message, it seemed as if anything could happen concerning the 2018 midterms. NBC News is reporting that in rural America, specifically the counties that helped Trump clinch victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, his approval rating is at 50 percent:

    [​IMG]

    This is yet another instance in which a bucket of cold water was thrown on Democratic 2018 hopes. They’re focused on 23-24 districts that split for Hillary Clinton, but also a Republican House member. That’s fine, but there are at least a dozen Democratic districts that Trump won last year. The Democratic obstacles to their 2018 plans is being met with skepticism from everyone, including MSNBC’s Morning Joe who noticed the lack of a Democratic farm system for candidate recruitment. Then, The New York Times threw more wet blankets on the 2018 takeover hype, with the Georgia special election in its sixth congressional district, where Republican Karen Handel beat Democrat Jon Ossoff in the most expensive House race in history. Democratic turnout was the highest in a decade in the district, but it wasn’t enough to win.

    The biggest punch to the gut for Democrats was Third Way’s analysis of the midterms, where they said, “Democrats still would not win the House even if they could get every single 2016 Clinton voter who backed a Republican House candidate to turn out again in 2018 and cross over.” That’s from a left-leaning think tank. Talk about not only being handed a wet towel, but being slapped with it......snip~

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattv...-midterm-plans-just-took-another-hit-n2355582
     
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  2. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    If Dems can pick up 10-15 seats in 2018 (a nice "dent" but, short of control) that would be a fine result for them heading into 2020.

    Dems picking up 10-15 seats in 2018 would be a great result, especially in light of the unconscionable GOP Gerrymandering.
     
  3. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Although it is way too early for prediction or even my Perotista forecasts, a quick look at the house of representatives today show 28 Republicans seats at risk vs. 10 for the Democrats. I have delved into those seats to see what the PVI is or whether Trump or Clinton took the seats. Other factors to be considered is Trump's approval rating, party affiliation, hot issues at the time of the election. A hot issue can be decisive. Much like the ACA in 2010 led to a 63 seat Democratic lost. It doesn't pay to go against the wishes of the majority of Americans that close to an election.

    I would say if the midterm was held today, the Democrats would gain around 15 seats, take or give a couple. Not the 24 they need. I would say at this point and time the stars are beginning to align to a very big Democratic year in 2018. But that alignment could come to a screeching halt depending on future events and how the economy is doing. History is also on the side of the Democrats. Since FDR the party that holds the White House has always lost seats in their first midterm with the lone exception of Bush in 2002. But he had 9-11 happen which united the country behind him and his party. Here is a quick list from FDR as to the results of the midterms.

    Obama lost 63 seats in 2010
    Bush gained 8 seats in 2002 But lost 33 seats in 2006
    Clinton lost 54 seats in 1994
    Bush lost 8 seats in 1990
    Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982
    Carter lost 15 seats in 1978
    Nixon lost 12 seats in 1970
    LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966
    JFK lost 22 seats in 1962
    Eisenhower lost 18 seats in 1954
    Truman lost 28 seats in 1950
    FDR gained 11 seats in 1934.

    Here is a history of midterm elections when a president's approval rating is at 45% or below at the time of the election.


    1974 Ford 42% Minus 5 senate Minus 48 House seats

    1982 Reagan 43% Plus 1 senate Minus 26 House seats

    1994 Clinton 41% Minus 9 senate Minus 54 House seats

    2006 Bush II 37% Minus 6 senate Minus 33 House seats

    2010 Obama 44% Minus 6 senate Minus 63 House seats

    2014 Obama 41% Minus 9 senate Minus 13 House seats
     
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  4. Guno

    Guno Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    and yet the cracka goy in red dumfucfkatan are dying off
     
  5. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    You should run for chairmanship of the DNC.
     
  6. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Dems are watching the dream die.
     
  7. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Which was made up by the Working Class Demos who voted for Trump, because they couldn't stand the **** the Demos were shovelin. :laughing:
     
  8. bradt93

    bradt93 Well-Known Member

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    BUT WHAT ABOUT RUSSIA LOL!!!:deadhorse:
     
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  9. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Its not only the House either. Still all these leftist groups are trying to tell the Demos whats up. But the illiberals that have taken over their party. Just drowns them out with cries of Russia, Obstruct, Resist.

    Even Carville is out telling them how difficult it will be for the Demos to win back the Senate.


    Carville: It'll Be ‘Very, Very Difficult’ For Dems to Take Back Senate in 2018.....

    Democratic strategist James Carville predicted Sunday that it will be “very, very difficult” for Democrats to win the Senate in 2018.

    As for the House, he believes that’s a different story, putting those chances at "50-50."

    “The problem in the Senate is we have a large number of seats we have to hold in states that Donald Trump carried. Indiana, Missouri, you know, places like that we have to hold seats,” he added.

    Democrats would need to win three Senate seats, and Carville said the only state that could be promising is Nevada.

    “The only places where we have an opportunity for pick up are, you know, Nevada is pretty good. After that Arizona is less good, then you’re down to Texas and Alabama,” he said......snip~

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahb...for-dems-to-take-back-senate-in-2018-n2356042
     
  10. TheGreatSatan

    TheGreatSatan Banned

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    Anyone else think all the polls will show every democrat winning everywhere?
     
  11. TheGreatSatan

    TheGreatSatan Banned

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    Both parties gerrymander. They have become 1 party that acts like 2. In the end, they both serve the same master and 1 agenda. The Gazi (global socialist) agenda.
     
  12. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Pretty damning news for dems.
     
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  13. therooster

    therooster Banned

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    I hope Andrew Jackson comes back from his grave to make a prediction. I heard he was the best.
     
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  14. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    [​IMG]

    Soooooo the best.
     
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  15. MMC

    MMC Well-Known Member

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    Yeah it was, but now the Repubs will lose the Senate as the Demos in disguise just handed the Demos another win.
     
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  16. PrincipleInvestment

    PrincipleInvestment Well-Known Member

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    Do you see how many "likes" he's racked up? He is the Tom Perez of PF. Libs are lapping this up like thirsty dogs.
     
  17. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You really need to disregard everything before Bush II. The Blue Dog/Dixiecrat dynamic pretty much ended during the Clinton Presidency.
     
  18. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Shifting alliances within the two parties and in-between the two has always been occurring. The biggest shift has been toward the independents, from 18% during FDR to around 44% today depending on the poll. Of course you have you lean Republican and lean Democratic in that independent number which is dynamic and continues to change constantly. I would say a bit less than 10% of the total electorate is a true or pure independent with no leans.

    I follow independents very closely, more so than Republican and Democrats. What is interesting is over the last three months the column independents lean Democratic has been slowly building while the independents lean Republican has been shrinking. That is the current trend. But one major even or an improving economy could change all of that in a heart beat.

    Way too far out to get a good read. We can have an idea today how an election would turn out today. The numbers are there for that. But not well over a year from now. No one knows what will happen in the future.
     
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  19. Deckel

    Deckel Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Lean democrat and lean republican really isn't that big a deal in House races though. Incumbents have an advantage regardless of party affiliation. A democrat needs around 54% polling advantage to beat a republican incumbent and a republican needs around 56% to beat a democratic incumbent
     
  20. modernpaladin

    modernpaladin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It sounds like for all the noise the anti-Trump are making, the quiet majority is still pro Trump. Loud lefties are are all being put on RL 'ignore.'
     
  21. ArmySoldier

    ArmySoldier Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's asking a lot given 2016 results. Not likely IMO
     
  22. gc17

    gc17 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Did you factor in this? Dems have lower poll numbers that the President.
    CNN)There's lots of bad poll numbers out there for President Donald Trump these days. He has historically low job approval ratings, and nearly 6 in 10 voters believe he lacks the judgment or personality to be an effective president, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
    What the focus on Trump's numbers misses, however, is that Democrats aren't in a great place with voters either.
    One number in the Post-ABC poll really stood out to me as something that should worry Democrats pondering the party's future: Asked whether the Democratic Party is in touch with the concerns of the average person, just 28% of respondents said it is -- as opposed to 67% who said Democrats are out of touch. Those numbers are worse than the "in touch/out of touch" numbers for either the Republican Party or Trump in that same poll.


    More amazing to me is that only 52% of self-identified Democrats said their party was in touch with peoples' concerns, while 44% said it was out of touch. (Also of concern for Democrats: Fewer than 1 in 5 independents -- 18% -- said the Democratic Party was in touch with the average person.)
    Those numbers -- particularly among Democrats -- are striking. Party leaders in Washington have positioned the party as the voice of the little guy since the earliest days of the Trump presidency: Their side would be the one to stand up for the disenfranchised people in the country whose lives Trump neither cared about nor even thought much about.










































     
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2017
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  23. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Depending on how the district is drawn, I think you're correct. Usually there are only around 35-40 seats that are in danger of switching in any normal election. By normal I mean not a sea change election as happened in 1994, 2006 and 2010.

    Each had a hot issue that the masses held incumbents accountable. 1994 was the Democrats raising taxes. But what really mattered was the Democrats raised the amount of Social Security the federal government taxed from 50% to 85%. The one group most likely to vote is seniors 65 years of age or older. They always have the highest turnout percentage wise. 2006, most Americans were tired of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the recession was beginning to bite. One could say the masses just tired of Republican rule. In 2010, it was the ACA which the majority of Americans didn't want.

    I don't have the figures for 1994, but in 2006 independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 57-39 margin over Republicans. That turned around in 2010 as independents voted for the Republican congressional candidates 57-41 over the Democrats. That's quite a switch in four years.
     
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  24. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I know that. But in Pelosi district she is riding high and will win easily with her normal 80% of the vote. Now one can look at at the congressional vote polls which show an average of 49% of the electorate favoring the Democratic candidates vs.39% favoring the Republican candidates.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

    Now that is nationwide. Not district by district where it really counts. But looking at each district as of today, the Democrats have 10 districts at risk vs. 28 for the Republicans. It's still too early to say what will happen with any sense of accuracy. But in normal years going by the at risk districts would translate in approximately at 15 seat gain for the Democrats once you also figure in the generic congressional polls.That's not the 24 needed to take control of the house, but there is still a long way to go and there is no doubt as of today the electorate is madder at the GOP than the Democrats.
     
  25. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Democrats will likely pick up a few seats, but it is not likely they will pick up 15.

    But they're also likely to have a net loss in the Senate.

    The gerrymandering which Nate Silver said accounted for, iirc, a total gain of 7 seats? Didn't he also point out that Democrats did it too?

    But no, it's only unconscionable when the other side does it. Totes cool when our side does.
     
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