Russian COVID-19 vaccine: genius move, or incredibly risky?

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by CenterField, Aug 4, 2020.

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  1. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53621708

    For those who don't know, and after all the talk that it would be impossible, the world already has a COVID-19 vaccine, out of Russia, and they are starting massive vaccination of dozens of millions of their population in October.

    The article I have linked to above doesn't say it but in other international news from foreign countries I read that they tested... just 38 people!!! Then, considered it all good, and are starting the mass vaccination of the entire Russian people.

    This contrasts to what is done in the West and even in China: Some 40-50 young and healthy volunteers for Phase 1, followed by some 600-1,000 youngish and healthy volunteers for phase 2, followed by 30,000 to 50,000 volunteers that include older and less healthy people for phase 3. Only if all three phases are successful in terms of safety and efficacy, the candidate vaccine is approved and given to the general pubic.

    Now, people are balking in horror of Russia's temerity. This sounds profoundly unsafe, and actually doesn't just sound unsafe. It *is* unsafe. Maybe insane.

    So one would assume, it's a boneheaded move, right?

    As a matter of fact I'm not so sure.

    What does Vladimir Putin want? To put Russia back in a position of international prominence. The COVID-19 vaccine is the new Space Race. Remember the Sputinik?

    So, there are four possibilities:

    1. The vaccine is safe and effective. Russia vaccinates their 146 million people ahead of any other country on Earth, and the pandemic comes to a screeching halt there. They recover economically ahead of all other countries that are still struggling with the pandemic. They appear like technological geniuses (notwithstanding the suspicion that they got the research done so fast because of spying on other vaccine makers). Their vaccine, which ultimately becomes much better tested than any other from being given to millions in a real vaccination campaign instead of merely thousands in a phase 3 trial, becomes a hot commodity and is sold everywhere at top price, completely defeating other players like Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, Sinovac, and Sinopharma, who are all five currently undergoing phase 3. Russia would be smug and a big big winner.

    2. The vaccine is effective but not the safest. A percentage of people develop serious reactions. The Russian portion of the pandemic still comes to a halt (since it is effective), and Russia argues that if the vaccine doesn't kill 1% of takers and doesn't maim 5% more (even bad vaccines rarely get to such big numbers; more like 1 in 10,000 bad outcomes), like the virus itself can do, it's still a winning proposition. Russia's economy rebounds as well in other sectors (from no longer having to worry about the virus), although they don't find as many buyers for their vaccine, and then better tested ones ultimately prevail internationally. Still, Russia becomes the first country to emerge from the pandemic, and the speed of recovery also limits the economic impact there (unlike elsewhere), so that in the long run they make strides as compared to other countries.

    3. The vaccine is safe but not effective. Russia says, "well, no harm no foul, we had to try; We'll try again with some other approach." Not a lot to lose here except for the money invested in producing and delivering the vaccine; this money at least will have trained and rehearsed their production infrastructure and their ability to conduct a massive vaccination campaign, for the next try.

    4. The vaccine is unsafe and not effective. Russia says, "oops, we are sorry for the victims but the virus was killing and maiming too; we had to try; delay for tests would have allowed more people to die from the virus itself, anyway, which could have been avoided if this vaccine had worked. We are a proud and courageous people and we are willing to take risks in order to find solutions, like when we put men in space ahead of all other countries."

    So, of 4 possible scenarios, 2 are favorable, 1 is neutral but harmless (with some advantage in beefing up production infrastructure and delivery expertise), and 1 is bad but could get some spin. There is a predominance of favorable outcomes. Seems like a gambit Putin would be willing to risk. The bad part about his fellow citizens potentially running into vaccine complications, Putin looks to me ruthless enough for that to not exactly be a deterrent for him. Who cares it some Russians get maimed or die, if it's for the glory of the motherland (and of course, for the glory of Vladimir himself)?.

    So, I think, from a strategical standpoint it is not a boneheaded move, although from an ethical and humanitarian standpoint it may leave a lot more to be desired.

    Opinions?

    .
     
  2. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oh wow, nobody interested in this... no replies. I guess my OP was too long and discouraged participation. Serves my verbose self right.
     
  3. MJ Davies

    MJ Davies Well-Known Member

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    No. I read it last night. It wasn't too long (but I like to read ;-). I didn't comment because I don't have an opinion on the matter. I think it's really difficult to know which leader(s) are doing the right thing and which ones aren't because we, as a world, have not had to deal with a pandemic in our lifetime and we were clearly unprepared.

    With that said, I am very concerned about any vaccine rushed through trials to hit the market so we can reopen the economy. I want a "fix" but I don't want a *forced* one, if that makes sense.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
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  4. SkullKrusher

    SkullKrusher Banned

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    As long as Bill Gates and Dr.Fauci are not involved , the Russian vaccine has a better probability of working
     
  5. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    As long as vaccination is optional I have no problem with it. I prefer to have people make their own health decisions than to have government do it for them.
     

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