Senate races to watch in November

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by pjohns, Mar 25, 2020.

  1. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    True. ANYTHING is Possible.

    I will concede that point.

    Taylor Swift is already measuring the White House for New Drapes.

    [​IMG]

    ANYTHING is Literally Possible in Politics.

    IF an Unprepared, Unqualified, IMBECILE (like Trump) Could Get Elected...

    ...THEN, Anything is Truly Possible


    Who knows?

    Maybe Collins Wins Maine with 80% of the Vote?

    Anything is Possible.:salute:
     
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  2. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I'm especially intrigued by your final comment.

    Here's the latest from UVA's Sabato's Crystal Ball:
    Of course, Trump will have an impact, especially given demographic changes:

    Colorado’s trajectory has been similar to that of Virginia’s: Both states have been becoming more Democratic thanks in large part to the continued shift of many white voters with four-year college degrees into the Democratic column (both states have higher-than-average formal education levels). One of the consequences of Trump’s behavior in office is that while he has held the GOP coalition together, he hasn’t really expanded his appeal all that much among voters who were skeptical of him in 2016.
    http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/rating-changes-electoral-college-and-senate/
     
  3. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    The influx of younger, better-educated voters will have its inexorable impact upon the politics of North Carolina, Georgia, and elsewhere, as has been the case in Virginia, Colorado, etc.
     
  4. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I read that this AM as I subscribed to Sabato's Crystal Ball. On Georgia's special election, Loffler's seat is going to be a jungle primary on election day. Then a runoff between the two top vote getters on 5 Jan 2021. All candidates will be listed on the ballot in November. No primary for that seat. Perdue's seat is a normal primary in which he'll probably face off against Ossoff who lost the 6th congressional seat district race, also in a runoff. Republican Representative Doug Collins is challenging Loffler for her seat and is more popular. My guess is after the November jungle primary it will be Collins vs. Lieberman in January.

    Back to the VP pick. Abrams, an excellent campaigner and well respected former minority leader in our state legislature just lost to our current governor, Kemp by 55,000. She lost by only a point and a half. 1.4% to be exact. Hillary lost Georgia by 5 points in 2016, Biden isn't Hillary and isn't as disliked as she was by the independent voters in Georgia. Abrams in her narrow lost won the independent voters 54-44 over Kemp. Which is the reason she almost upset him. One last thing, Trump's approval rating in Georgia has dropped to 49% as of Feb, 47% disapprove. The pick of Abrams could give the democrats at least a 40% chance of taking Georgia, probably higher along with making a difference in the senate races. Without her, Trump is the favorite, Perdue probably wins fairly easily. The runoff for the final senate seat, the special, who knows?
     
  5. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Your insights are appreciated.

    Given the spotlight on Trump and the unpredictable course and consequences of the pandemic, it's impossible to accurately assess his impact in November, but demographic trends still define a state's electorate, and Tracy Abrams - 46 years old, female, Black - experienced, and having had positive national exposure, seems the ideal running mate for Biden.

    Now I'll be disappointed if your suggestion of Abrams on the ticket is not heeded.
     
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  6. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm sure other will cite lack of experience on Abrams part. She has never held any statewide office nor been in congress. Although she could possibly deliver Georgia and from a numbers perspective that could be huge.

    Three other women from a numbers perspective would also make sense. Klobuchar, Hillary won Minnesota by just a bit over one percentage point. Amy would ensure Minnesota stays blue and might help in Wisconsin. Baldwin, Wisconsin probably would make that state blue again. She could help in both Minnesota and Michigan which are right next door. Whitmer, governor of Michigan, another state Trump won in 2016. She would deliver Michigan and help some in Ohio and Wisconsin. Besides all three would bring regional balance to the ticket.

    In my opinion, Warren wouldn't help nor would Harris. Both from deep blue states. No state in the Northeast is going for Trump, besides Warren wouldn't bring any regional balance. Harris would bring that regional balance, but California and the entire West Coast is about as deep blue as one can get.

    Masto Hispanic, Nevada, isn't mentioned. But she would ensure Nevada stays blue, probably bringing next door Arizona into the democratic fold. There's others, but these make the most sense for me. From purely a numbers perspective, not an ideological one.

    Put it this way, Abrams helps in the south. Klobuchar, Baldwin or Whitmer helps in the Midwest, Masto in the southwest.
     
  7. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Of those 5 Candidates that you mention:

    Masto is the only candidate that could be crucial in tipping a Swing State, if she could deliver AZ.

    The Dems are (already) going to WIN in MI, MN, and WI (regardless).

    And, conversely, GA is going to stay Red (regardless).

    My money is still on Harris (because she checks off more boxes).
     
  8. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Could be. as of this AM, Biden leads Trump by 2 in Wisconsin, by 4 in Michigan with no polls since last year for Minnesota. Biden at the moment is by 4 in Arizona. Masto probably would guarantee Arizona and one has to wonder about her effect in Texas, a state Trump leads by only 2 at this point.

    Right now Biden leads Trump in Ohio, a state that Whitmer could be of assistance. It does seem though that you're right about it being Harris. Although I don't see any advantage numbers wise with that choice. What the difference whether Biden wins California by 3 million or 4 million votes?

    I also think that without Abrams, Georgia will stay red, but with her, Biden would have a shot. 40% or so and the high black, Democratic turnout might swing a senate seat.
     
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  9. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I was surprised that Klobuchar had not faired better in the primaries, and surprised that Warren had done as well as she had.

    One consideration that may enter into the choice is that, with the usual hoopla surrounding a convention and normal campaign being, at least, seriously curtailed, the mere naming of a running mate alone may take on added significance.

    Baldwin, Whitmer, and Masto would all lack that widespread, instant recognition. The added burden of introducing a potential VP to the nation amidst the opposition's inevitably scrambling to negatively define her may be especially unwise in 2020.

    [​IMG]
    "Volodymyr, I need a favor concerning a Catherine M A S T O!"

    Given the other contra-indicating factors, I'd be inclined to regard the choice as being between Klobuchar and Abrams, with an edge to the latter - partly due to my guess that she might attract more of Sanders' disgruntled followers to the polls.
     
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  10. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You're going to have a certain percentage of Sanders supporters stay home because it's their man or none. Their loyalty is to Sanders, not the Democratic Party as we seen in 2016. I'd be fine with either Klobuchar or Abrams. In fact Whitmer, Baldwin and Masto would suit my boat. I'd someone not from the Northeast probably would do fine. Biden doesn't need help in the Northeast, now the Midwest and South, that is where he needs a good choice. He also doesn't need help on the West Coast.
     
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  11. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Trump's impudence, pettiness, petulance, and misogeny is certainly helping Whitmer's chances.
     
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  12. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Midwestern Governor who has had to work with a legislature. Young, 48. Can deliver Michigan and probably help big time in neighboring Ohio and Wisconsin. Not so much Indiana as that state is going to Trump. She then can have 4 years national exposure, Biden can groom her for 2024. What's not to like about her.

    Here again, I don't know her politics, center left or left all the way. But when it comes to numbers and what she can do for the ticket, I don't think Biden could do wrong in selecting her. As for Sanders supporters, forget them, they've a mind of their own. I do think in the end most would come aboard rather than endure four more years of Trump. But that remains to be seen.
     
  13. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Wisconsin Republicans apparently are of the opinion that nasty attacks to degrade Whitmer are not in their Party's interest.

    Fake Don, amidst a national emergency, taking the time to burnish his impeccable credentials as a vituperative, petty lowlife is a self-indulgence he would do well to forego.
    Personally, I'm glad he doesn't have a dog to kick.
     
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  14. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Trump at times is his own worst enemy. The guy has no political sense. In this time of crisis he needs to be showing cooperation and to be doing all he can do. Not tweeting dumb remarks about someone not being greatfull enough. This isn't the time for petty politics. actually I don't think there is a time for that, but certainly not amidst a pandemic.

    It does seem Trump isn't happy unless he is creating needless feuds.
     
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  15. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Insecure and immature.

    Inslee tweeted, “I just received a call from @VP Mike Pence, thanking Washington state for our efforts to combat the coronavirus. I told him our work would be more successful if the Trump administration stuck to the science and told the truth.”
    Trump's response to the recommendation of respecting science and telling the truth:

    “I told Mike not to be complimentary of that governor because that governor is a snake!”
    Fake Don, needless to say, does not want to stick to the science and tell the truth. He persists in his lying:

    Trump Claims U.S. Testing For Coronavirus Most Per Capita — It's Not


     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  16. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The original boost in approval ratings is now sinking. For a few days Trump was actually being seen presidential and boom, from 44% up to 48%. Now that he's back acting like the schoolyard bully and calling other names like a four year old brat who's parents forgot to teach him any manners, down they go. Same old Trump.

    I've always called Trump a thin skinned, egotistical, opportunist with a very obnoxious, uncouth persona. Here was a golden opportunity to cement his reelection and come out smelling like a rose. He blew it with his childish behavior and name calling. He's headed for a very bad defeat and it all rest with Trump personally and his very unpresidential behavior in times of a crisis.
     
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  17. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I am unable to explain how such an insecure narcissist who obsesses over every perceived slight and needs to continually lie and lash out in such vicious and immature tantrums attracts such a worshipful congregation that parrots his every squalid effusion.

    Screen Shot 2020-04-03 at 7.29.52 AM.png
    Screen Shot 2020-04-03 at 7.32.55 AM.png
     
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  18. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    A lot of it was who Trump was matched up against. Hillary was just as much disliked by America as a whole as Trump was. You had two candidates going up against each other with favorable's below 40% and unfavorable's above 50%. In our entire history we've never had a major party candidate with a favorable rating below 40% or above 50%. Barry Goldwater in 1964 came the closest, 43% favorable, 47% unfavorable. Compare that to Trump's 36/60% favorable/unfavorable and Hillary's 38/58% favorable unfavorable.

    We have Trump directly due to the choices, actions and decisions made by both major parties in 2016. Many Republicans were very angry at their congressional critters, call them the establishment for not stopping Obama in his tracks. They expected the GOP House to run the country and give them everything they wanted. So anger basically gave Trump the nomination. Dislike of both candidates back in 2016 gave the White House to Trump.

    A friend of mine summed it up nicely. We elected the devil we didn't know, Trump being a businessman, no political experience, no one knew how he would govern, over the devil we did know, everyone knew exactly how Hillary would govern. Perhaps she was too well known. So we elected the devil we didn't know over the devil we did.
     
  19. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I see it a little differently.

    I was always capable of easily distinguishing between the relative merits of the unpopular Clinton and the degenerate Trump, and was well-aware that her conspicuous shortcomings were greatly enhanced by a prolonged partisan fatwa contrived in anticipation of her inevitable nomination. Years of Republican inquiries and investigations failed to contrive a single indictment, but had crackpots rejecting American jurisprudence and screaming, "Lock her up! Lock her up!"

    The relative merit of the two was registered in 2.8 million more Americans preferring Clinton, not as a sign of affection, but as a recognition of the enormous disparity in experience, knowledge, and stability.

    The electoral college margin was largely a consequence of the perception that the Democratic Party was neglecting a previously-loyal constituency, working-class White males, a sentiment I shared. Clinton was the ultimate establishment candidate at the time the establishment was being justifiably reviled.

    Ironically, I thought the matter was well-stated by Clinton herself, in the second half of her foolish "basket of deplorables" speech:

    ... But the "other" basket – the other basket – and I know because I look at this crowd I see friends from all over America here: I see friends from Florida and Georgia and South Carolina and Texas and — as well as, you know, New York and California — but that "other" basket of people are people who feel the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures; and they're just desperate for change. It doesn't really even matter where it comes from. They don't buy everything he says, but — he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won't wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they're in a dead-end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well.
    And, yes, I regard the neo-nazis, white supremacists, and other extremist groups that enthusiastically embraced Trump as eminently "deplorable" but they constituted a far, far smaller percentage of his basket than Clinton falsely claimed.
     
  20. perotista

    perotista Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's fine, each of see 2016. I see it more as Hillary being lazy, running a very inept campaign and a failure of being able to energize her base. From 1 Sep through 8 Nov Trump made 116 campaign appearances, stops, rallies to Hillary's 71. That 71 looks larger than what it was as it includes campaign fund raisers in deep blue California and New York. That's her laziness. In the deciding states, Wisconsin, Trump 5 visits, stops to Hillary's none. Michigan, six for Trump, one for Hillary and in Pennsylvania which was closer, Trump 8, Hillary 5. She ceded the campaign trail to Trump. Even in electoral vote rich Florida, it was Trump 13, Hillary 8.

    Hillary wanted to receive more electoral votes than Obama did, if one looks on that as a campaign strategy. She spent way too much time, energy and money trying to win Georgia, Arizona and Utah. Thus ignoring the so called Blue Wall states. Perhaps she thought she had the election in the bag.

    Media, Hillary basically hid from them. She went over 200 days without a press conference and only appeared on show that were 100% for her like, The View. Trump was out in front of her, daily calling into the morning talk shows whether they were for him or against him. He as the master of the media, always ensuring he had top billing, the star, the lead story. The media was always talking about Trump, very little talk about Clinton.

    Although Trump came across as being an obnoxious oaf of a candidate, Hillary was coming across as aloof, elitist and fake. Trump energized his base, they were willing to go to the four corners of the earth for him. Hillary didn't Her base and entire campaign was more ho hum. Lacking enthusiasm. She was totally disliked by independents, 27% favorable/70% unfavorable. Trump wasn't liked much either, 40% favorable/57% unfavorable. Question 10 and 11.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

    In the end, it was independents who went for Trump that gave him the White House. If you add the third party vote, those who voted against both Trump and Hillary, you have 54% of America voting against Trump, 52% voting against Hillary. Yes, Trump won via the electoral college. Now Trump's campaign was a strategy of gaining 270 electoral votes, only concentrating on states he thought he could win. Hillary was too busy trying to win states she couldn't just to get more electoral votes than Obama did in 2012. Even her Husband Bill, told her she was blowing it. But she wouldn't listen.

    There's many more reasons, but Hillary caused her own defeat. The Democrats were warned back in Feb 2016 about her. A poll showed 56% of all Americans wanted the Democrats to nominate someone else, someone other than Hillary. But American's as a whole don't choose the Democratic nominee, Democrats do and Democrats choose to ignore America as a whole. But America as a whole do decide general elections.

    Turnout was the key. The Democrats went into the general election with a six point party affiliation advantage. They final advantage when all the votes were cast shrink to 3 points. Hillary couldn't inspire her Democratic base to go to the polls and vote for her.

    anyway, I suppose we'll have to disagree on this. I think Hillary caused her own defeat.
     
  21. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    I think Clinton ran a poor campaign, but her vulnerability as the ultimate establishment politician was underscored by a vulgar, ignorant reality-tv celebrity having handily dispatched several experienced, credible Republican politicians vying for the nomination. The times were not kind to a range of traditional candidates, not just Clinton who still managed to receive nearly 3 million more votes, but the electoral college handed her the same defeat as Trump had inflicted on career politicians Jeb Bush, Rafael Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, etc.
     
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  22. Heartburn

    Heartburn Well-Known Member

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    What got Trump the nomination was he listened to his base that had been telling the GOP what they wanted since Obama's second term. Those politicians you listed were still of a mind to tell that base what was best for them. If you listen to the list of things we need to fix that have been identified by this pandemic you will see that they are exactly what Trump ran on and got him elected. Hillary's 2 to 3 million more votes came from Los Angeles and New York. Fortunately the rest of the country gets a voice too thanks to those smart old guys from a long time ago.
     
  23. Phil

    Phil Well-Known Member

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    Did they merge 3 threads here?
    I wondered how the Senate races to watch thread (which seemed complete a few days ago) made it to page 2. It looks like the female Veep thread leaked in.
    Stacey Abrams would be the least qualified candidate for VP since Chester Alan Arthur. Seeing that he was a huge success, maybe she would be a good choice. The next VP might have a term about the same length as Arthur.
    Does Biden need her to win black southern votes from Trump? If so, the Democrats are playing the tightest defense possible to avoid a 45-5 landslide loss.
    Of course while some will blame Trump for every discomfort, others see the real enemy as their local governors or the 2 loudest mouths in that category right now. As I write this, the Governor of Connecticutt is claiming he was robbed in New York's favor. 45 states might see it that way.
    The reason Biden ended up on top in this crowded race involves comfort. No one is comfortable with the other final 7 (except maybe Klobuchar). Comfort is the biggest reason Senators win so many terms and will be again.

    The reason I wanted to post here tonight is because I'm curious with those swing voter posts. Is there any evidence any measurable number of voters have switched from Democrat to Republican or vice versa in the past 20 years? Is it mostly just independents wavering from left to right, reacting to irritants, drifting with trends and going by feelings on the last few days? I think so, but does anyone have relevant numbers? Is there one person alive who voted twice for 2, twice for Obama and once for Trump?
     
  24. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    THOSE Voters swung the entire 2016 Election in PA, MI, and WI.

    The Obama 2008/2012 Voters who Switched to Trump in 2016 in the Swing States.

    That is Universally Accepted by several Post-Election Analyses..
     
  25. Market Junkie

    Market Junkie Banned

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    I'll be watching republican sally get her ass kicked in AZ... :thumbsup:
     

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