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Silver price watch

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by DA60, Aug 19, 2011.

  1. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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  2. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Gold and silver have been FAR outperforming the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500, etc. for over 3 years now.

    And with Bernanke saying the Fed is holding rates near zero until 2013 - that trend should continue (with ups and downs, of course) for some time.

    If you do not have a substantial portion of your 'portfolio' in gold/silver, imo, you either have inside information about something or are economically foolish.

    And, in my opinion, don't listen to your broker if he/she is telling you not to buy gold/silver or to diversify (i.e. buy stocks, bonds, cash equivalents, etc.).
    One) they are probably economic dumb dumb's. And 2) they probably don't make much (if anything) on you buying and holding physical gold/silver - so of course they don't want you buying much/any.

    Just go and buy them yourself - it's relatively easy if not down right simple.

    And if you don't know when to sell?

    As soon as the Fed STARTS raising interest rates relatively aggressively...then sell - IN MY OPINION.


    NOTE: I AM NO EXPERT.
     
  3. Anikdote

    Anikdote Well-Known Member

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    Some people are reluctant to invest in more commodities at this point because they fear they've missed the bubble. However, I'd argue that the Fed increasing the interest rate doesn't have a 1:1 correlation with the fall of the value of precious metals.

    I believe that a better indicator of when gold/silver prices will stabilize will be if/when the dollar begins to regain value, as I believe that the huge rise in the price of gold/silver is as a result of folks wanting to hedge risk with the dollar not doing so hot.
     
  4. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    And how exactly do you see the gov't./Fed raising the value of the dollar?

    The main way I am aware of is through less 'money printing'. And I have seen no serious sign from either that they intend to do that anytime soon.

    I am also skeptical of them since it seems obvious to me that they both seem to want a weaker U.S. dollar so as to monetize the debt (among possible other reasons).
     
  5. Anikdote

    Anikdote Well-Known Member

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    The simply answer is what you point out, decrease the supply of money, I do have to admit here that another avenue to this could be increasing interest rates to renew interest in investment.

    I also think, that even if interest rates remain low if consumers regain faith in the economy increased circulation could make the dollar seem attractive again to both internal and external investors.
     
  6. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    The last time gold and silver absolutely collapsed was in 1980 when the Fed finally got serious about the then incredibly high inflation and really poured on the interest rate hikes.
    Sure there were other reasons, but that was, imo, the main catalyst for the collapse...the reason to own gold/silver was taken away.


    Yes, gold/silver took a big (temporary) hit when everyone fled to the dollar in '08.

    It was not that the dollar got stronger because of anything fundamentally good about it...people just fled to it like crazy because everything was collapsing around them and they had virtually no where else to put it.

    That could happen again.

    But, unless the dollar gets fundamentally stronger, I see it as once again a temporary condition.

    And I do not see the dollar getting fundamentally stronger so long as rates are near zero and the gov't./Fed keep massive deficit spending/'money printing'.


    And, as you point out, raising interest rates could spur on savings.

    Though frankly, I am much more concerned about inflation.

    I believe the CPI is a semi-joke and that actual inflation is actually much higher then what the Fed/gov't. wants people to believe.

    And it is that factor more then anything that will - in my opinion - force the Fed to eventually raise interest rates.

    And when they do - then I think it is time to get out of gold/silver.

    ESPECIALLY silver as it is FAR more volatile then gold.


    But again...I AM NO EXPERT.
     
  7. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    BTW -

    Silver is at $42.37...

    ...up $1.69.


    Good day for silver today...so far

    Silver is a roller coaster...so it could come back down any minute.

    You definitely have to have a strong stomach (imo) to own silver.

    But if you are not prepared to take a loss...you probably should not be investing.
     
  8. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    $42.60...up $1.92
     
  9. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    It closed(?) at $42.86...up $2.17
     
  10. Drago

    Drago Well-Known Member

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    Back in '08, the dollar was the safety net and I no longer believe that it is. Things have changed, we've printed a lot of money. Gold is becoming the safety net play. Every major down drop these past few weeks, gold up, dollar, well it hasn't fared as well. The dollar is losing its safety net value. This will continue, gold will be double what it is now 3 years from now at least. We have a hectic few years ahead of us. Most political discussions are a farce because there is only one way to pay even a minute amount of our debt back, and thats inflation. When you run trillion dollar budget deficits, its a massive task just to break even for one year, nonetheless actually pay some debt off.
     
  11. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Silver started the week at $43.54...up $1.11 (about 2.5%).

    A few minutes later it's down to $42.88.

    Now, a few more minutes later and it's back up to $43.56.


    Silver is a roller coaster!


    Gold is going up and down as well right now (Libya maybe?)...but as per usual, not to the same extremes as silver.
     
  12. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Silver is $39.32...down $2.97 (over 8%).


    Ouch...lol.

    And so the roller coaster continues.
     
  13. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    $43.23 up $1.75 (over 4%).
     
  14. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Silver is down $4.15 to $36.27 (over 10%!!!).

    Gold is down over 4%.

    It's late '08 all over again.

    We are probably headed for a recession, the markets are panicking, everyone is fleeing towards the dollar (like dummies) and gold and silver are getting killed.

    The dollar index has risen in a few week from under 74 to over 78.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND

    http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html

    http://www.goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html


    I just wish I had some spare cash to throw into silver.
     
  15. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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  16. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    wait it out until either Bernacke introduces QE 3 or the european union re-capitalizes the banks.....there is a "REAL" danger of a repeat of 2008 here.....where everything falls including gold and silver and the DOW would get hammered.....lets hope Bernacke anounces QE 3 soon!

    I will start a thread on this!
     
  17. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    once the dust settles there will be a heck of a buying opportunity! As templeton once said......it takes courage to buy at the bottom LOL
     
  18. MaxGeorgeDicksteinXXXI

    MaxGeorgeDicksteinXXXI New Member

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    It's some pretty bad technical damage.

    It plummetted through a quintuple support.

    However, we're right back on the 200 day moving average and I think it will rebound. But if it drops below 30 again, it's gonna get ugly.
     
  19. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I am not an expert in the SLIGHTEST.

    But I believe that much of the collapse has been do to margin calls and hedge funds taking some profit from precious metals to help their balance sheets (in reverse order).

    Though the majority of the hit is probably just good old fashioned panic - with people selling everything and buying U.S. dollars (the dollar Index has shot up the last few days/weeks).
    The fundmentals for the greenback suck long term - but it is still the reserve currency of the world and people still run scared towards it when things get dark.
    I would not be shocked to see it continue to climb so long as the fear of a recession continues to grow.
    And if that happens, precious metals (especially silver) could be in for a long ride down.
    But I am convinced they/it will recover...unless the western governments/central banks finally abandon Keynesian economics and start doing the right thing and just let their economies work themselves out.

    But in my opinion...fat chance of that happening.
     
  20. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    thats exactly what collapsed markets in 2008...hedge funds were given margin calls and everything had to be liquidated and the banks became insolvent....still no QE 3 means a collpse to this phoney economy on life support....this is what I have been saying for 6 months now......no more QE and a spectacular collapse takes place.....well as you can see if money is not injected very soon that is precisely what is going to happen......this is an election year....do you really think Bernacke will allow such a collapse?
     

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