Silver price watch

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by DA60, Aug 19, 2011.

  1. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

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    I was on the ball for once in my life when I moved into Gold when it was just above $800 and Silver was around $18 .
    But in fairness , anyone can become " an expert " when you get into a position where you cannot ever lose .
    Many very savvy people now take the view that Investments are History and that everything from now on is a Trade . I agree but with the one exception of Gold and Silver until currency has run its course -- that is , the dollar has fully devalued and been replaced as the world reserve currency . Might take up to 5 years .
    I don't criticise your strategy but you might regret it , if , out of the blue BNP Paribas Bank failed or was nationalised overnight .
    And they are rocking on the edge . Bit like Wells Fargo .
     
  2. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    What would happen if this occurred?
     
  3. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

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    What effect?
    Bear Sterns plus Lehman Brothers multiplied by God knows what
    BNP Paribas is the biggest banking holding company in the world .
    With claimed assets at between $3 and $4trillion , the toxicity of debts must be horrific for insolvency to be a real possibility.
    The whole system would collapse in Domino style .
     
  4. MaxGeorgeDicksteinXXXI

    MaxGeorgeDicksteinXXXI New Member

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    Makes no sense to track it from day to day.

    The question is when will there be QE3 and have I bought enough before then?

    The price isn't going to anywhere until then.
     
  5. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    OK....you are correct but are overlooking one thing....many hedge funds are heavily leveraged in commodities...if any large financial institution fails as you mentioned then there would be massive defaults like in 2008 and many hedge funds would have margin calls and would have to dump commodities to close their position and buy dollars to repay the banks....so yes I think short term the dollar might benefit but long term you are correct...the dollar is doomed to go to zero.

    I am heavily into gold and silver as most on this site know......and I think eventually gold will go north of 3,000 and silver north of 100....but short term is anybody's guess and I wont rule out the possibily of another dollar rally first before the major collapse happens.
     
  6. dudeman

    dudeman New Member

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    If you think the world will be around in the year 2045 as is. Until then, buy AR-15's, 0.223 ammunition, canned food and water. Gold and silver might be useful in the extreme long term. Until then, if you don't have a gun, food and metals will be taken by evil forces.
     
  7. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I agree with you 100%.
     
  8. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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  9. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

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  10. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I did not know that they raised the margin requirements AGAIN!!!

    That would explain much of the big drop.

    Thanks for posting that.
     
  11. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    the elites will do whatever they can to prevent silver from rising too much....but they can only do so much........there are some big players in the markets and many of them are wealthy individuals that pay cash for their contracts....it shall be interesting to watch how this unfolds throughout the winter months!
     
    kuyajack and (deleted member) like this.
  12. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

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    It better unfold well or I shall be looking at various suicide options .
    As I write , it looks as though the correction is over and we are sateaming north again .
    It's a big ask but I believe we could see 40 before Christmas if the politicians continue to handle matters so badly .
    The Super Committee behaved exactly as forecast ( like idiots), and if the Bond Vigilantes attack the French Banks , we will have Goose and Venison for Christmas . And lots of Champagne .
     
  13. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I dunno...I'd love it if you were right, but...


    Germany refuses to bend, warns no ‘bazooka’ for crisis

    'Germany continues to dampen hopes that it's going to bend in its opposition to Europe pulling out its big guns to fight its spreading debt crisis.

    "We don't have any bazooka to pull out of the bag," Michael Meister, who sits in the Angela Merkel's governing coalition, told Bloomberg News today. "We see no alternative to the policy we are following."

    As Brian Milner writes in today's Report on Business, the euro crisis has spread from the periphery countries of Greece, Portugal and Ireland into core nations such as France, which is now operating under a threat from Moody's Investors Service.

    Many observers have called for Europe to pull out all the stops, primarily with a eurobond, large-scale bond purchases by the European Central Bank and a move to make the ECB the lender of last resort to ailing governments. The central bank itself is opposed, as well....'

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...d-warns-no-bazooka-for-crisis/article2243958/


    With both Germany and the ECB seemingly against 'Euro printing', and the Fed does not seem immediately ready to pull the trigger on QE3 (since the Euro problems seem to be shifting the focus away from America's problems) - I see silver/gold going generally downwards for the foreseeable future.

    Though I hope I am wrong.

    But then I am NO expert.
     
  14. kuyajack

    kuyajack New Member

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    I just hope another crash is not on the way :(
     
  15. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Well, if it is - I personally, very strongly believe it would just be temporary one.
     
  16. kuyajack

    kuyajack New Member

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    I guess the only bright spot would be that we can buy more cheaper
     
  17. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Exactly!!!
     
  18. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    thats the whole idea LOL :)
     
  19. raymondo

    raymondo Banned

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    Any forecast of the Silver spot price is doubly difficult compared to Gold but my feeling is that the correction may be over .
    You won't be seeing 31 or lower again .
    Trust that there will not be egg all over me next time I write .
     
  20. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I am afraid I have to disagree with you there.

    If Merkel and the ECB continue to drag their heels on a bigger bailout (which I think is actually the right thing to do for Europe long term) and the Fed holds back on QE3 (which I think they will until the elections are MUCH closer) then silver (and probably gold) are going to take a beating in the short term.
    Silver is already down $1.36 today to $31.59.

    http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html

    Yes, eventually the fiat currencies of the world will eventually collapse and then people will probably run like mad to precious metals.

    But I am thinking more and more that that day is several years away at least.

    But, once again, I am NO expert.
     
  21. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Btw - I still think silver/gold are excellent long term positions to be in - as do economists like Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers and Marc Faber.

    But I just think they are going to take a hit in the short term - unless the Fed/EU starts spending a LOT more money then they presently are.

    And I think people should be prepared for that possibility (if they are heavily margined).

    But if someone has rainy day money invested in silver/gold...I think they should not worry.


    But, once again, I am NO expert.
     
  22. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Jim Rogers: Commodity Prices Will Soar Once Again

    'Falling commodity prices are temporary and likely due to the collapse of the MF Global brokerage firm, says noted commodities investor Jim Rogers.

    "With MF Global going bankrupt – which was a gigantic commodities firm – there was a lot of artificial forced liquidation of commodities. People have to sell whether they like it or not. It's artificial selling right now," Rogers tells CNBC, adding he's stick with commodities.

    "I'm long commodities and currencies, because if the world gets better, the shortages in commodities will make sure I make money; if the world economy doesn't get better, I'd rather own commodities because they're going to print money," he says, referring to loose monetary policy central banks have taken in the last few years to kick-start economic growth.'

    Silver looks particularly good, and gold, while dipping, will resume climbing.

    Stay out of equities, Rogers adds.

    "This is like the 1970s, in the 1970s stocks did nothing. Commodities went through the roof. I'm short stocks and long commodities for the most part."

    Gold is trading around $1,700 an ounce after approaching highs of around $2,000 earlier this year.

    Loose monetary policies often weaken paper currencies and fuel inflationary worries, which makes gold an attractive hedge, especially in Europe, where gold demand was up 135 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago, according to the World Gold Council, CNNMoney reports.

    Worldwide demand for gold was up 29 percent in the third quarter.

    "Fears generated by the deepening sovereign debt crisis in Europe were manifested in a strong desire to buy gold," the World Gold Council reports.'

    http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Rogers-Commodity-Prices/2011/11/23/id/418960
     
  23. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    Jim Rogers on Silver vs. Gold

    'Jim Rogers : well I own both , if I had to buy one today I would buy silver , because gold is near its all time high , Silver is 30 percent below its all time high , I am not buying any today Alex but if I had to to I'd rather buy silver and if you do not own any raw materials commodities , buy yourself some silver even at today's prices but you got to get started , yes if you have 60 or 70 thousand dollars your money got to be somewhere I'd rather have it in real assets than currencies which are being debased daily around the world'

    http://jimrogers1.blogspot.com/2011...ampaign=Feed:+blogspot/WOHK+(Jim+Rogers+Blog)
     
  24. bacardi

    bacardi New Member

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    Jim Rogers is correct but with one thing I dissagree with....in the currency crisis silver might actually collapse at first...thats because many banks will fail and deflation will set in. Now I will assume that at this point Bernacke and also the european central bank will start printing like crazy and this is when silver will once again explode upwards.

    So in closing I am saying silver might collapse first and then possibly triple or even quadruple in price.....its really a tough call!
     
  25. DA60

    DA60 Banned

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    I agree.

    Silver is usually FAR more volatile then gold. Plus gold seems to have more 'safe haven' properties then silver (not that the latter is considered a safe haven per se).

    I think silver is going to take a real beating the next few weeks/months...especially considering both Merkel and the ECB seem to be hesitant to spend lots of Euros for the time being.
    I am not convinced that $20 is completely out of the question.

    But when the inevitable QE3 happens and/or later when some major fiat currencies start to collapse, then silver should shoot skyward (as - in the latter case - investors look for somewhere 'safe' to park their money during the storm).

    But until then, it could be pretty ugly for silver holders (like me) over the next few weeks/months.

    No pain, no gain...lol.

    But, once again, I am NO expert.
     

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