Spanish police storm Catalan government buildings to stop independence referendum

King Felipe VIth's speech was highly critical, some think excessively so, that this was a gamble, I'm a monarchist, support the King no matter what, his father took the same gamble when the 'Tijerazo' in '81 and it played out well. God Save the King!

 

There are much clearer articles in Turkish constitution against separation of any land... Does that make the EU lookin at it and say; Hmmm... Let's not support separatism within Turkiye? Hell no... So we say VIVA FREE CATALONIA...

 

A nice side-effect of this Catalonian charade has been the recovery of Spanish patriotism. For too long Spaniards who felt patriotic suppressed any expression of this out of concern they'd be seen as fascists as Franco's government promoted nationalism. In Catalonia the separatists silenced opposition to independence by branding anyone questioning the move as fascists. Catalonia's prosperity has meant the region has attracted many to move there from all over Spain, and plenty of non-Catalans are well established across the region where they've lived for generations. As the separatists tout Catalonia's differences, impose use of their language and certain observances, many in Catalonia resent this, they've been tolerant knowing anyone who speaks out is labeled a fascist. A week after the farcical referendum hundreds of thousands of patriotic Spaniards (by some estimates over a million people) protested the terrible situation Catalonian separatists had brought to the region. People marching for national unity remarked at how surprised they were at the huge number of people waving their flag in solidarity. National unity is important to all Spaniards and plenty of Catalans don't support independence.

An anticipated 'revelation' was the lack of support from all foreign governments for Catalonian independence, nobody has come forward to say they'd recognize an independent Catalonia, nobody wants to mediate, there has been mild criticism over the repression of the referendum, but otherwise the EU, US, Latin America, China, Russia and everyone else stands with Spain. I anticipated this reaction, Catalonia cannot reasonably claim lack of self-government, the region is endowed with governmental faculties no other region, federated state, province, district or other political subdivision anywhere in the world enjoys. I don't think it is an exaggeration to claim Catalonia has as much autonomy than Belarus. Thus these calls for self-determination are recognized as a farse. Moreover, the government in Madrid, with the exception of the intervention against the referendum, has always comported itself with extreme tolerance despite the continuous and long-running abuse from Catalonia's regional government.

Thursday will be the denouement. Rajoy has sensibly demanded Puigdemont clarify his position stating explicitly that he does not seek Catalonian independence, otherwise Spain must uphold the Constitution and dismantle the Catalonian government. Puigdemont has no good choice, if he reaffirms independence, his government will abruptly end, it will be outlawed by application of the Constitution's Article 155 and disassembled by the national government. If Puigdemont offers instead to compromise, to negotiate, to discuss, to do anything other than unilaterally declare independence -the irrendentists in his fracturing coalition will withdraw their support and his regime will collapse. One way or another the government of Catalonia has to change. Spain's interior minister says that if they take over the regional government it will be at least a year before they can call for regional elections to reinstate a regional government and this would enable Madrid to exert more influence on whoever gets to run. Puigdemont could call for an early election, he would have to if the irredentists withdraw their support, he may be able to promote separatism this way, but political figures in Catalonia do appreciate they are jeopardizing the autonomy they already have.

 

Puigdemont would lose an early election, his coalition is tenuous and many were very disappointed when he backed down from unilaterally declaring independence. Moreover, Catalonians are quite sensitive to business matters and very concerned over the massive withdrawal of business from the region over the past week.

 

This was the "clarification" madrid demanded given the ambiguous declarations from Puigdemont. The reaction was predictable, Madrid rejects blackmail, Article 155 will be applied. Rajoy is using the administrative procedures of implementation to gain Puigdemont time to reconsider, but apparently the Catalan is not just stupid, obstinate too.

I noted this would be the situation before they held the referendum, every EU member has regional subgroups and each of those sees themselves as God's gift to humanity, the faintest support to Catalonia would trigger claims from Flemish, Scots, Bavarians, Corsicans, Burgundians, Bretons, Basques, Laplanders, Welsh... The EU's members don't want to open this can of worms.

 

Epiphany Plus !

The Euros only support freedom, independence and liberty
when it involves someone else union, nation. etc.

When it comes to them and their own,
Never!
Not Scotland. Not Brexit. Not Catalonia.

Isn't that amazing?
Or just hypocrisy in action.

Seems like an enlightened Europe would suggest off the record discussion
Hopefully, the Federals will take that attitude when it is about a return to independence of the Republic of California, or The Republic of Texas. Maybe the Kingdom of Hawai'i.
The European reaction is one of oppression. No discussion.

Support Liberty.
Let's start with Puerto Rico.


Moi

r > g

Remember, with every step toward consolidation in Ottawa
Freedom & Liberty suffered.
Seriously. No kidding.​

 

Good theory! This definitely makes sense!

 

Catalonia will not get independence for many reasons. The most important reason is because their independence would justify similar calls from a variety of subordinated regions within most EU members; Scots, Corsicans, Bavarians. Flemish, Bretons, Welsh, Piamontese, Venetians and countless others across the UE all have historical claims as good or better than Catalonia, all have plenty of irredentist separatists who seek to reclaim past glory.

Another important reason is because the EU Charter requires upholding the constitution of every member and Spain's does not allow national dismemberment by secession (nor does any other Member's).

Catalonia's viability as an independent nation depends on it's membership in the EU and participation in the Eurozone. Membership in the EU is contingent on unanimous approval of it's members and Spain would not approve. Participation in the Eurozone depends on complex calculations relating to an applicant's financial viability and Catalonia's proportionate debt and financial obligations currently preclude their inclusion. Neither of these two issues were adequately presented to the Catalonians who voted.

Puigdemont apparently expected Rajoy to negotiate an amicable separation that would allow Catalonia to accede to the EU and join the Eurozone, Spain said no.

The EU expressed remarkable solidarity with Spain, their concern over Spain's use of force to prevent the referendum was mild, their repeated support for upholding the Spanish constitution and rule of law has been strong.

Whereas Rajoy had contemplated allowing Puigdemont to call for regional elections and then muddle through, now he seems strengthened and prepared to suspend the regional government on Monday no matter what the locals decide.

 

Puigdemont announced today he is not convening a special election, moreover, it is not clear doing so would prevent applying the Article. The PSOE (socialists in Madrid) supports suspending application of Article 155 if Puigdemont calls for special elections, but Rajoy's party with Ciudadanos has enough votes to get 155 through the Senate without PSOE.

It is interesting to watch how the situation evolves. Months ago it was clear Rajoy's party (Partido Popular) was quite intolerant of these separatists in Catalonia, theu conducted raids, seized ballots, tampered with the registry of voters. Some think Rajoy is using this crisis to distract from the continuing corruption scandals in his party, but the separatists in Catalonia have kept things going. Rajoy sent over 5,000 police officers to the region ahead of the illegal referendum, the Constitutional Court outlawed the voting and ordered it stopped, some police were not allowed to disembark when they arrived (by ship) in Barcelona's harbor. Farmers drove their tractors to form barricades, the politicized regional police disobeyed orders to intervene against the election.

On election day it was a mess, thousands of Spanish police and Guardia Civil seized ballot boxes and blocked access to polling places, they confonted crowds of agitators with rubber bullets and truncheons. There is a lot of exaggeration in the descriptions of this clash, but it was violent in places. Despite inflated claims of nearly 900 injuries, by the end of the day just 2 people remained in the hospital (an old man who had a heart attack and a protestor hit in the eye by a rubber bullet).

The reaction from the EU was mild, they found the use of force proportionate. In the days that followed there were multiple expressions of solidarity from leaders in the EU, this strengthened Rajoy's hand and he called for the application of Article 155. The socialist opposition supported Rajoy's move, separatists were antagonizing all of Spain, they'd gone too far. For about a week the government in Madrid tried to convince Puigdemont to back down and it appears he did by suspending his declaration of independence, but as the situation evolved Rajoy became firmer and demanded clarification, he required an explicit statement against independence and Puigdemont couldn't do this.

Puigdemont's government is a weak coalition of separatist factions, they sought to bargain with Spain so Catalonia could stay in the EU and use the Euro, they wanted a 'roadmap' to transition gradually towards independence. With the EU's solidarity backing Madrid and the surprising revival of patriotism across the rest of Spain (and even in Catalonia), Rajoy commanded authority, convened ministers and articulated implementation of Article 155. The Senate confirmed, he has authorization, it conforms to the law, even the opposition supports this.

Meanwhile in Catalonia Puigdemont's coalition is falling apart, the moderates worried about the hemorrhage of capital as business flees, tourists keep away, Catalan products get boycotted... the dire prospects of inadmission to the EU and difficulties in resolving conditions to use the Euro, while the more irredentist among the separatists favored an immediate declaration of independence, they felt betrayed by Puigdemont's backtracking, his suspension of the declaration after the vote tally, announced their withdrawals from the coalition, called on their supporters to protest and demand action.

If Puigdemont called for regional elections he would lose, he lacks a majority, even in the heated-up atmosphere of secessionism there are too many factions and the reaction in the business community has called into question the wisdom of separation (most of Catalonia's business is with the rest of Spain). The prospect of his loss is why Rajoy held up this option as an alternative early on, Puigdemont studied the proposition, he counted his supporters, discussed their commitments, he knew he would lose and anticipated the separatist rhetoric would have to rise in any campaign.

With the EU's unambiguous support, Spain's solidarity against Catalonian moves and Puigdemont's waffling, Rajoy was ready, he's assigned responsibilities, appointed a caretaker and detailed implementation. There will be resistance, but not violence. The 'Govern' will be disassembled, on Monday Puigdemont and his executive will no longer have legal authority, their signatures will be void, their orders empty of any meaning, anyone who acts on his instructions will be violating the law, ministers in Madrid will assume authority over the distinct areas the regional government once controlled. This process will go on a few months, there will be purges, functionaries will get cashiered, but Madrid will proceed with calm deliberation to remove any separatist elements.

 

There is a lot of baloney in separatist claims of Catalonian self-sufficiency. On October 15th the vice-president of Catalonia, Oriol Junqueras, published a report forecasting the economic situation of an independent Catalonia. El Pais parsed the report and found it was full of lies and errors; for example that Catalonia’s GDP was like that of Denmark (according to Eurostat in 2015 it was 75% of Denmark’s), that capital flight would be of negligible impact or that Catalonia was guaranteed EU membership. Such fabrications were issued to induce support for secession, but Catalonians are not stupid, they have good business sense and they can see how things really are. Junqueras claimed Catalonia lacked self-determination:

The separatists think Catalonia would become an EU member and join the Eurozone, but it isn't at all clear how:

Evidently Catalonia would be subject to import duties and would need to negotiate it's own trade agreements, but how about using the Euro?

An independent Catalonia could adopt the Euro, but would be in the same situation.

Catalonia does well, but not as well as Junqueras claims, and all of this is without taking into account the added costs the region would have to assume in creating their own customs agency, military force and diplomatic corps, plus overcoming the difficulties of Spanish opposition to any European dealings with Catalonia and coping with the economic consequences of the certain strain in trade with their largest market (Spain).

 

Santi Villa, the Catalonian ‘conseller’ for business (a Cabinet position), tendered his resignation once Puigdemont announced he would not call for early regional elections (an option the ‘President’ may have had to forestall application of Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution).

Today the Spanish Cortes (Senate) debated application of Article 155, tomorrow they will vote on this after an address from President Rajoy, unless otherwise specified, the Resolution from the Cortes takes effect 20 days after mandatory publication in the Official Gazette of the State (Boletin Oficial del Estado).

Looks to me like Puigdemont got the goose cooked, tomorrow the Cortes will ratify application of Article 155, by Monday preliminary steps will be taken towards it's implementation, unless otherwise specified in the Cortes' enactment (likely since it is an emergency measure) the Govern will be outlawed within 20 days.

 

Although the Spanish government formally terminated Catalonia’s regional president and entire Cabinet yesterday, their president, Carles Puigdemont refuses to step down; Saturday at noon, regional broadcaster Tv3 released a recorded announcement by Puigdemont making clear he maintains his position and urges Catalans to “peacefully” resist imposition of Article 155.

 

Puigdemont and his cabinet have been relieved of responsibilities, Rajoy’s vice-president has assumed authority in the region. The regional police chief, already under what amounts to house arrest, has placed himself at the disposition of the central government’s authorities (he faces charges of sedition). His second in command has been designated (by Madrid) to assume control. This first maneuver by Rajoy suggests the dismantling of the separatist systems will be minimized and quite technical.

Madrid announced yesterday Catalonia will hold an election for regional government on December 21st. Originally Rajoy had postulated their elections might be held in 6 months or longer as he was evidently concerned the passions of separatism might promote support for more radicals. The socialists in Madrid wanted elections earlier, Rajoy agreed to call for them once he deemed the situation stable enough, socialists insisted in including a specific provision to call for regional elections and yesterday Rajoy announced the earliest date possible under law.

Evidently the government in Madrid has evaluated the situation on the ground and found support for independence not as strong as all the Catalonian flag waving suggests:

 

The key to the successful restoration of constitutional order and the rule of law in Catalonia will be a highly technocratic usurpation of regional authorities by Madrid. Every bureaucrat in Catalonia will be forced to strictly comply with what the law requires and minute changes in Catalonian laws will be swiftly enacted based on how administrative hearings and appeals against and for different functionaries get dispatched. It will be fascinating to see how learned Catalonian administrative law judges are made to interpret the underlying significance of the removal of some comma or inclusion of some contingent regulation reflects "the will of the governed". This will be boring news for radicalized advocates of independence, most of it taking place in bureaucratic corridors among skilled interpreters of arcane regulations.

It is not clear how those radicalized advocates of independence will cope with the anticipated process, whether they resort to violence is the most troubling consideration, this would ruin the region, but irredentists may feel they have no other option. Madrid needs to enhance its lawful intelligence gathering, to quickly identify and counter the most radical elements.

 

Rajoy will need to focus on the ‘resistance’ in Catalonia:

According to The Catalan National Assembly, regional functionaries must not comply with any instructions from Madrid.

The Catalan National Assembly is just another separatist organization, despite it's name, this is not an "official" entity or any part of the now suspended regional government:

I expect Madrid will focus first on the most outspoken elements of the emerging ‘resistance’, presumably in this organization and in the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (whose leader is in the same situation as Jordi Sanchez).

 

As anticipated, the interim administration from Madrid is expected to be highly technocratic and quite discrete and this is evident already:

However, as noted by El Pais, the same cannot be said about the regional broadcaster, which I noted earlier had transmitted a message from the former Catalonian president (Puigdemont) with all the trappings of his former office as though he had not been terminated:

Dealing with the regional functionariat:

Criminal liability may result:

 

EU hypocrisy...

 

EU self-interest, they've all got secessionists of their own, the whole continent is a gradual amalgamation of feudal states which at some point coalesced into what we now call "nation states". If ancient claims of historical differences become the basis for contemporary sovereignty, the whole system collapses, the UN would have thousands of members, all treaties would need to be renegotiated.

 

You seem to be well informed on this issue. How come? You got family in Spain/Catalonia?

 

I come from Spain, ancestors from Asturias, raised in Malaga.

 

El Mundo reports the Spanish national association of Savings Banks and its Banking association will no longer deal with the former govern. They issued an announcement full of flowery language about constitutional order and the safety of investments.

 

The regional government in exile?

 

Tough one

The recent elections in Catalonia showed that 92% of the 45ish% that voted absolutely want independence. That is a HUGE number, I have heard people try to say "they only had 45% turnout!!! (was it 44%?) but is with a 92% "yes" vote, even if they matched the Spanish election of 66% voter turnout and every single one of those extra 21% voted against Independence, it still wouldn't even come close to changing the result

Let's do some math

92% or 2,221,593 voted Yes
8% or 177,547 voted No

Using these percentages, the total possible voters equals 5,049,075 persons.

Since I have heard "Pro EU" people claim that the low voter turnout negates the meaning, lets assume it was as high as the last Spanish election which had a 66% voter turnout.

So if it matched that, it would mean the total votes would be 3,332,390 persons.

If 100% of those "extra voters" who stayed home, actually would have voted no, we would have the following.

1,110,797 persons.

Then you add that to the 177,547 people who actually VOTED NO.

So when you add this up, IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON WHO STAYED HOME VOTED NO, with the typical voter turnout of Spain (and other EU countries, Germany(71%), France(68%) we would have the following vote total.

Yes - 2,221,593 = 63%
No - 1,288,344 = 37%

So again, even in this impossible hypothetical situation it is blatantly obvious that the people of Catalonia do not want to be a part of the larger Spain. The argument from those whom are Pro EU who state that the low voter turnout actually means something are simply kicking up dust

You can;t argue math.

As a Spaniard (I really appreciate the knowledge you bring to the table) how do you feel about the situation as a whole on a personal level?

I have been to Spain 4 times and been to both Barcelona and Madrid multiple times and hae said before, they feel like different countries. On the other hand, the difference between California and Alabama is MUCH bigger, so it may be a moot point.

I will finish however by saying, if you are for Crimea being a part of Russia, but do not want Catalonia to have it's independence, you are pretty much a hypocrite.

 

We cannot confirm 43% of Catalonia’s registered voters cast ballots, nor that 90% of the ballots were in favor of independence, there are no records, voters printed their own ballots, there was no way to prevent someone from voting more than once since the only requisite was to have a printed ballot. No registry of voters was available. Those figures were provided by the former government which sought this outcome.

Moreover, the national government declared the referendum illegal, those who recognized the authority of the national government stayed away from the polls, they didn’t vote.