Swine flu verses Covid-19

Trump lied, people died

be honest with the public, not the count is 15 and going down, soon to be zero

 

Trump just declared a national emergency, banned travel, ect... is Trump being hysterical?

the reason is speed of transmission, the swine flu was slower spreading, but ask the Trump admin why they are getting hysterical, they are in charge

 

The thing is, even if you multiple it by 10, it still isn't close to the yearly pneumonia fatality rates.

 

Go write a story about how bad it is when the POTUS is responsible for an epidemic causing 41 deaths so we can all have a good laugh.

 

over a longer period of time, the medical community woudl be overwhelmed if all those flu's happened in a short period of time

this is why vaccines so important, but anti-science anti-vaxers do not see that

 

go write a story about the President trying to blame this pandemic on Obama and the left, so we can all see what an idiot the President is and how much he lies

 

Yeah he could learn a lot.

I mean Obama only had 14,000 deaths from H1N1 and a lot of them were kids.

Thanks for the nonsensical idea.

 

Trump is the one that doesn't care about the people, posters here care, only reason Trump is now pretending to care is the stock market

 

Slowing the spread is logical in that infection of the at risk group will be minimized until we get a vaccine.
A big part of what trump did though was to lessen the hysteria and it worked. Dow went up over a thousand points as he spoke.

 

And now that the narrative is falling apart, we return you to your regularly scheduled mind reabuytoiletpaperding.

 

yep, and Trump could have the same or more... the point is, the issue is speed of spreed and overwhelming the medical facilities, doesn't the right get that yet, even Trump's experts saying that daily now

why do you think the Trump admin is lying? never mind, I get that his credibility is shot.....

 

But he won't.

He shut down the border.

Unlike Obama.

 

Trump never shut down the borders, the Trump task force admitted that, Americans were able to travel back and forth, it was a recommendation

tell me what days and countries you think Americans were banned from travel to and from

this misinformation from Trump early on did not help matters

 

You forgot he hates women, children, gays, the poor, and all people black, brown, tall, fat, skinny, oh yeah and he's just like Hitler, just like Hitler...

 

Dear lord.

He shut down the border to places infected with the virus, and implemented a quarantine that hasn't been done in 50 years.

He has now shut down travel to Europe except the UK.

Is it strange that people haven't sued him yet for his Christian ban?

It's amazing how hard you work to make that 2" round peg fit in that needle eye.

 

We had 4,000 people dying each month from the common flu in 2018, and quadruple that for the number hospitalized. We have a ways to go yet before our medical facilities are overwhelmed. All we can do is hope people follow the simple rules to slow the spread of this virus so we do not have 4,000 dying each month.

 

so why is Trump so concerned? why did he just declare a national emergency, why are his experts on the task force so concerned?

is Trump lying to us again?

I agree, let's hope people follow the advice of the experts, that we can agree on

 

good lord, I asked a simple question and you can't answer it cause it never happened

if you want to travel to Europe you can, right now, it's not a ban

I asked "tell me what days and countries you think Americans were banned from travel to and from"

 

the travel restrictions did not apply to Americans, never did (Trump just makes stuff up, you have to fact-check this President)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-white-house-clarify-european-travel-curbs-he-announced/

"As for those the ban applies to, the president told Americans, "We will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days." The White House later tweeted that the travel restriction applies only to most foreign nationals who've been in the 26-nation Schengen area of Europe in the two weeks before their scheduled arrival in the United States. U.S. citizens traveling in Europe will be exempt"


and of course Trump said trade and cargo would be banned too, but that also was not true

"These prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval," he said. But he appears to have misspoken.

After his speech, he clarified by tweet that it's "very important for all countries & businesses to know that trade will in no way be affected by the 30-day restriction on travel from Europe. The restriction stops people not goods."

 

Trump's narrative has never been coherent, that is part of the problem

 

Is this a new and dangerous pandemic or is this just a different virus strain for the common cold? First of all, it does not seem too serious to me. In the U.S., population 327 million, there are 1500 known cases and 40 deaths. That is a rate of .027% or about the death rate for the common cold.

Yes, there is a severe shortage of test kits, however, Fact Check.org reports, "FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn provided the clearest answer about testing capacity on March 7, when he said that the CDC had shipped enough kits to state and local public health labs to test 75,000 people for COVID-19.

"In addition, more than 1.1 million tests manufactured by Integrated DNA Technologies had been shipped as of March 6 for non-public health labs to use, with another 400,000 possibly shipping by March 9. A separate manufacturer had also produced 640,000 tests that could have shipped as early as March 9, once quality control testing was complete.

“The actual number of tests that have shipped is larger than the number of patients that can be tested,” Hahn explained, noting that the approximately 2.1 million tests from IDT and another company would allow roughly 850,000 Americans to be tested." The Facts on Coronavirus Testing - FactCheck.org

In light of those numbers, 1500 known cases and 40 deaths, 31 in Seattle-area nursing homes, does not seem all that serious to me.

The U.S. is shutting down the NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAA tournament, Broadway, Disneyland, any gather over 50 people (L.A.) or 1,000 people (many states), and so on. The stock market is tanking, and Americans have lost billions in retirement funds and investment. This leads to one very important question.

Is the cure worst than the disease? Is this all happening because people are afflicted with the common cold, an annual occurrence since the birth of man?

Sorry, that's two.

 

Allow me to continue with my fantasy.

Viruses for the common cold are extremely contagious and are airborne pathogens. 80% of the people who come down with the common cold certainly know they are sick. In fact, caused by a runny nose, headachy feeling, shortness of breath, coughing spells, they are quite miserable. The symptoms last for about two weeks.

For the other 20%, the common cold can be quite serious. Many are elderly with underlying conditions such as respiratory ailments, heart conditions, and weaken immune systems. A very small percentage of these people die from the common cold.

Sound familiar?

 

the test kits are not there yet, not that many have been tested, testing early on would have been helpful, but just to let people know where the hot spots were and help isolate those infected to slow the spread

if people could have been tested, they would know if common cold or not, doctors have been having a hard time getting tests, but that is changing

planers need accurate data to plan, or they have to assume and plan for the worst

 

yep, this is most deadly for the elderly or people with underlying health issues

the other thing is how long this virus lives on surfaces, that is why slowing the spread is such a concern, they do not want to overburden the medical facilities

we do not even know the real number of fatalities as people that self treat and die at home, are not counted

we also do not know the true number of infected as most people could not get a test even if the doctor thought they needed one

 

To answer such a question, I think it is useful to get an idea of what was known about swine flu (H1N1) at the time, and compare what we know about COVID-19. The first case of the H1N1 outbreak was identified in April 15, 2009. However, the earliest case came from Mexico in March 9th, so clearly there was spreading well before it was a news story. This somewhat mirrors the Wuhan spread of COVID-19 in which China attempted to suppressed knowledge of the virus, until acknowledging it on Jan 9th.

Using these time tables and working back, we are ~90 days out from the initial spreading in Wuhan. So to try and give as close a picture as possible, I'm going to compare the outbreak of H1N1 at the time vs COVID-19.

H1N1 after 30 days: No data, undiscovered within 30 days.
H1N1 after 60 days: https://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_09/en/
- 3440 cases world wide
- 48 deaths
- 1.4% mortality rate

H1N1 after 90 days: https://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_06_11/en/
- 28774 cases
- 144 deaths
- 0.5% mortality rate

H1N1 after 120 days: https://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_07_06/en/
- 94512 cases
- 429 deaths
- 0.45% mortality rate

I am not sure of the accuracy of these numbers. Given how many countries it had spread to within 60 days, it is reasonable to assume a very large portion of flu illnesses were the H1N1 strain. However, these are the numbers that were available at the time. Not the numbers we have now with hindsight.

In comparison, let's check COVID-19 for the same time frame

COVID-19 after 30 days: (obviously I think these are BS figures from China)
- 41 cases
- 1 death
- 2.27% mortality rate

COVID-19 after 60 days:
- 49053 cases
- 1383 deaths
- 2.8% mortality rate

COVID-19 after 90 days: https://coronavirus.thebaselab.com/
- 143848 cases
- 5391 deaths
- 3.75% mortality rate

Based solely on the numbers, it appears to be a faster spreading virus, and more fatal than H1N1 was at the time. But this is not the only difference between COVID-19 and H1N1 media narratives. Other key differences that have caused this to catch the public eye are:

- China initial secrecy about it, then exploding numbers when the cat got out of the bag.
- Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantine and refusal to be allowed to dock, and subsequent spread of the virus to a significant portion of the passengers.
- Mass quarantines of entire countries, first China and now Italy. Note that China did quarantine individuals for H1N1 in May 10-Jul 8, but these were targeted toward close contacts of infected individuals and travelers.
- Travel bans to other countries with a high rate of infections.

Something else I would like to compare (but have not found reliable stats for within ~120 days of H1N1 outbreak) is the hospitalization rate. COVID-19 is estimated to be ~15-20% severe symptoms, with some ~5% critical. Though these figures appear to be a bit more elusive to find an H1N1 comparison.