The 2017 Virginia Gubernatorial election (much information)

I'm gonna go out on a limb here. I'm far from Virginia so I only know what I know.

But I'm going to predict the rnc does better then all the polls show.

 

The Greatest State of California should be getting results earlier than most. 4 PM.

 

Trump just got his ass kicked <Mod Edit>

 

Phil Murphy elected New Jersey governor!


http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/07/politics/new-jersey-governor-election-2017/index.html

 

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Fumigation has begun with brio, panache, duende, and élan.

 

Well, looks like somebody is a bit butthurt.

Yeah, yeah... we know. It's just a few more of those "unimportant" state races.

 

Tell me. Where either of these races expected to go red this time last month? The answer is no. Va only really became a referendum on Trump when it started to get close. New Jersey was never going red, we all knew that several months ago.

 

Remember how you guys like to point out that most of the country is "red"?

Again, if trees and rocks could vote then the GOP would be in power forever.

 

GOP Silver Lining

It's clear that Trump is a rancid albatross for many GOP candidates to have around their necks, but if the GOP Congress had passed anything of significance for him to sign, the bills he was pushing were even less popular than he is. That would have made things even worse for GOP candidates

Let's hope they succeed in giving a yooj tax cut to billionaires and multi-national corporations and bloating the deficit before '18!

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The urban/rural divide is striking.

One party wins big where people live. The other sweeps the snake and lizard habitats.

 

Looking at Virginia's map, the radical PC left did win big tonight where the people live, MS-13 gang territory and barrios on the east coast !!! When did barrios on the east coast happen ???

Must be a diversity thing.

 

SO:


Northam +9

It wasn't even close

This means that the Qpiac poll, which also showed Northam +9, was absolutely dead-on.

It also means that exceeded the polling aggregate by around 6 points.

 

The electoral map of Virginia from last night:


The electoral maps from 2012, 2013 and 2016 are in the OP. A good county that is representative of the shift in VA is Loudon County.
Pres. Obama flipped the county for the first time in a long time for a Democrat, in 2008, with a +8.3% margin. However, in 2009, Republican McDowell won Loudon by +22.2%. In 2012, Obama retained the state for the Democrats and again won Loudon county, but this time, by only +4.5%. Terry McAuliffe also won the county in 2013, but only by +4.4%. In 2016, Clinton landslided in the county, by +17.9%. And last night, Northam won Loudon County by +20. So, from the gubernatorial in 2009 to the gubernatorial in 2017, Loudon County has swung 42.2 points to the Left. Now, this is just one good representative county. Henrico, King George and Portico counties are also good shift counties to watch. BTW, Northam won in Virginia Beach last night.

 

The raw vote in Virginia broke the old raw vote record:



The gubernatorial vote has grown 10-fold since the 1949 gubernatorial 68 years ago.

 

The exit poll for Virginia:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...s/governor-exit-polls/?utm_term=.121f9d40ad3b

The black vote was circa 20% of the electorate, as is 2009, 2012, 2013 and 2016.

Northam won the women's vote by +22 (61 to 38 )- exceeding the polling predictions. Gillespie won the male vote by +2 (50 to 48 ) - underperforming his polling predictions. However the total mix was Male 51 / Female 49 so for the first time in a while, men were the majority of the election.

The Democrats had a +10 advantage in party identication in the election (40 D / 30 R / 10 I), the largest gap for the Ds in a long, long, long time. Also the lowest R self-identification in a long, long, long time. Now you know why I questioned end-polling showing only a +3 D party identification. It wasn't even close. This is why it was possible for Gillespie to actually win the Independent vote by +3 and still lose statewide by 9 points.

 

Correction: it was a +11 advantage in party identification (41 / 30 / 28 )

 

Hilarious BS from Rasmussen before the election:

The Virginia governor’s race is dead even four days before Election Day.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam each earning 45% support. Two percent (2%) prefer Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra. Another two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...2017/virginia/election_2017_virginia_governor

 

Northam's 2017 win is the largest win for a Democrat in the Old Dominion since 1985, 32 years, or 8 cycles.

 

This does not bode well for the GOP, Trump is destroying what is left after they allowed him to become President and his base is trying to become the NEW GOP in his wake. Fortunately (or unfortunately) the Dems are so crewed up they may be unable to take full advantage of the collapse.

 

The GOP expected the Demos to win the Gov, Lt Gov, and AG in Virginia. The tell will be if the Demos can win the State legislature. They need to come up with 17 seats in order to do that.

 

they have already won them, it appears, but some are very close and surely there will be recounts. But for the GOP to go from having a hypermajority one day to losing the majority completely is.... rough for any team.

 

I heard they have only won 10. Still 7 more to go.