The 2018 Congressional generic polling thread

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Dec 24, 2017.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Starting Christmas Eve, 2017 and going well into the Fall season of 2018.

    Here the first batch, using (mostly) RCP's aggregate, currently showing: D+13

    [​IMG]

    Of the polls listed in the aggregate, here links and some internal details screenshots):

    YouGov:

    [​IMG]

    Reuters/Ipsos:

    [​IMG]

    Quinnipiac:

    [​IMG]
    The Qpiac poll makes a distinction between generic for the HOR and generic for the Senate, setting it apart from other polling firms.

    CNN/SSRS:

    [​IMG]

    NBC/WSJ (no internals worth noting).

    PPP (D):



    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Monmouth: (no internal data)

    Marist:

    [​IMG]

    I have highlighted internals that I think are important to track:

    Gender (female vote)
    All four geographical regions
    Ideology (moderates)
    Party (Independents)
    Race (especially the Latino vote)

    Since in most races since Reagan, the women's vote has been the majority of the electorate, keeping an eye on the female vote is a good idea, no matter what, but especially important as it is a major driver of the D-vote.

    So, let's take a look.

    Female Vote:
    YouGov 45D/33R, D+12
    Quinnipiac 61D/29R, D+32 (I took the average of the HOR and Senate calculations)
    CNN D59/R34, D+25
    PPP (D) D55/R22, D+22
    Marist D57/R30, D+27

    So, in four of 5 polls that post internals, The Ds are up by between +22 and +32 in the womens' vote. That is a crushing margin.

    When looking at geography, I pay special attention to the South, which should be a Republican stronghold:

    The South:
    YouGov D41/R37, D+4
    Marist D43/R45, R+2
    The last time the Rs won the midterms with a wave, they were at more than +10 in the South

    Party -
    Independents:
    YouGov D31/R26, D+5
    Reuters D18/R13, D+5
    Quinnipiac D55/R30, D+25
    CNN D50/R35, D+15
    PPP (D) D42/R38, R+4
    Marist "just independents" D27/R19, D+8
    Marist "moderates" D51/R33, D+18

    So, the baseline going into 2018 has started: D+13
    I will be updating hopefully once per week.

    -Stat
     
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  2. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    O great more "polls" didn't you learn to distrust them since they were dead wrong about Trump reaching the Presidency, and they haven't reformed their tactics and behavior???

    The White race is 49% Republican, 43% Democrat. Though pure numbers this is the only vote that matters.
     
  3. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    ...why is the white race the only vote that matters?
     
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  4. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    Because it's the majority. There are more white people than anyone else. The news media even came up with a word for it when Trump was elected it's called "Whitelash."
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2018
  5. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Being the majority doesn't explain why it is the only vote that matters
     
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  6. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    Shear numbers. That's all it takes to swing elections.
     
  7. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The white vote went overwhelmingly for Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate Race. He still lost.
     
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  8. wgabrie

    wgabrie Well-Known Member Donor

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    That's because most of the white, Republican people stayed home to protest the allegations of sexual abuse. White people can also take their vote and walk away.
     
  9. drluggit

    drluggit Well-Known Member

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    Seems to be the statistical evidence that indicts democrats for their fervent efforts to import more non white "citizens" or to allow non citizens to vote....
     
  10. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Jan 12, 2018
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  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  12. gc17

    gc17 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  13. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    The resistance is working, gc17, very well.
     
  14. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: Jan 22, 2018
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  15. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    The "we hate Trump" is working very well.
     
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  16. gc17

    gc17 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Must be why the Dems caved today on the shutdown
     
  17. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    The Dems got what they wanted: a Mitch commitment to resolve the DACA and CHIPS issue. Mitch caved. :)
     
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  18. gc17

    gc17 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  19. gc17

    gc17 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Actually the Dems saw polling that showed Americans didn't support illegals over our military. Schumer got the same deal he had on Friday. Republicans offered the DACA and CHIPs issue Friday and the same today. Schumer is now busy having a lunch of crow.
     
  20. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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  21. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    Nope, the Pubs did not offer CHIPs. Somebody is fooling you.

    Now, by the end of February, DACA and their relatives will be guaranteed access and residence and eventual citizenship in the USA.

    The craziness of the Alt Right and Far Rightness TPM creeps will swamp the House primaries, giving the national election to the Blue.
     
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  22. gc17

    gc17 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You're right, CHIPs was already in the bill.
     
  23. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    Believe as you will. The Dems outflanked the Alt Rightness and will get what they want in the next several weeks. When the Alt Right and TPM realize by October they are going to be smashed in Nov, I dearly hope they rise and we can wipe out this foulness for good.
     
  24. gc17

    gc17 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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  25. JakeStarkey

    JakeStarkey Well-Known Member

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    No, your dreams only are on the rise.
     

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