The Alternative Ukraine Thread

NATO has simply never felt the need to bother with Russia, whose forces would have a life expectancy of about 90 minutes against NATO. It appears that Russian "missile systems and radar" are built by carpenters . You can see western contempt for Russian capabilities in the Finns' and Swedes' dismissals of the Pootster's fulminations about their joining NATO.

 

I think you’re dreaming a bit there Jack. NATO stayed well clear of Russia helping Syria, intervening in the Donbass in 2014 and again this year. Nuclear powers are not pushovers. The Swedes and Finns aren’t contemptuous, they’re frightened. Again, NATO is staying well clear of becoming militarily involved in the Ukraine.

 

Welcome to warfare as conducted by the First World.


Ukraine Strike on Russian Air-Defense Unit Shows Impact of New Weapons From West

 

Tell that to the several hundred Wagner mercs we wiped out.

 

Are those the fake video game ones doing the rounds?

 

Good job they were mercenaries and not Russian forces. The end game Jack is that little red button and both Russia and the US cease to exist.

 

Probably better than the untrained cannon fodder being sent to Ukraine.

 

No one fears the Pootster. Most Russian missiles probably don't work.

 

The end is in sight.
Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com › world › 2022/06/25

Jun 25, 2022 — The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region to a ...

". . . But conditions for Ukrainian troops are only likely to improve as more sophisticated Western weapons arrive, while those of Russian forces can be expected to deteriorate as they dig deeper into their stocks of old, outdated equipment, said retired Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. forces in Europe who is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. At some point in the coming months, the Ukrainians will have received enough Western weaponry that it is likely they will be able to go on the counteroffensive and reverse the tide of the war, he said.

“I remain very optimistic that Ukraine is going to win, and that by the end of this year Russia will be driven back to the Feb. 24 line,” he said, referring to the boundaries of Russian-occupied areas in Crimea and Donbas captured during fighting in 2014 and 2015. “Right now it sucks to be on the receiving end of all this Russian artillery. But my assessment is that things are going to be trending in favor of the Ukrainians in the next few weeks.”

Already there are indications that the supply of Western weapons is gathering pace. Newly arrived French Caesar howitzers were videoed in action on the battlefield last week, followed this week by German Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, the first of the heavy weapons promised by Germany to be delivered.

A Ukrainian soldier fires toward Russian positions with a Caesar howitzer in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, June 8, 2022. (Reuters)
On Saturday, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry posted video footage of the American HIMARS systems being fired for the first time on the battlefield. Ukraine had pressed the United States hard to agree to supply the sophisticated multiple rocket launcher, which will enable Ukraine to strike up to 50 miles behind Russian lines. . . ."

 

The untrained cannon fodder were the civilians who Zekensky sent out into the streets to fight Russian paratroopers. I'm glad you said Russian missiles probably don't work, because obviously NATO doesn't think so. Jack, you've just spent 20 years trying to beat a bunch of goat herders in Afghanistan and failed. The US was built to take on large armies head on and apart from Iraq which was a coalition, it's failed or been stale mated in every war it has fought in since WW2. Additionally, the US population are not conditioned to accept heavy losses and as soon as they become unacceptable, the US retreats. The Chinese and Russians will take a million losses in a week and not blink an eyelid. if you listen to western media you get a completely different version of relity. I admire your optimism, but facts always win.

 

Afghanistan was lost in Washington by Trump and Biden, not in the field, but that's another topic.
South Korea is a monument to US arms.
Russia has already lost the Ukraine war; the only question is whether the Pootster himself can survive the debacle.

From left to right, the bodies of Bombacci, Mussolini, Petacci, Pavolini and Starace in Piazzale Loreto, 1945.

 

It was inspiring to see Ukrainians lining up to get their weapons in the first days of the war. A key difference is that the Ukrainians know what they're fighting for and want to fight. The Russian forces don't and don't.

 

OK when?

 

Excerpted from the quote in my #59:
". . . conditions for Ukrainian troops are only likely to improve as more sophisticated Western weapons arrive, while those of Russian forces can be expected to deteriorate as they dig deeper into their stocks of old, outdated equipment, said retired Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. forces in Europe who is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. At some point in the coming months, the Ukrainians will have received enough Western weaponry that it is likely they will be able to go on the counteroffensive and reverse the tide of the war, he said.

“I remain very optimistic that Ukraine is going to win, and that by the end of this year Russia will be driven back to the Feb. 24 line”. . . .

 

Thanks for making a verifiable prediction.

 

...I think that's pretty ambitious mate....be nice but don't think this will happen. I have a feeling this will smoulder for a few years; Putin's in eeyore mode with his ears back, pissed off that its all gone tits up and the Ukrainians are struggling with numbers but they won't give in. So Russia will keep feeding thick peasants and crappy kit into the meat grinder and the Ukes will keep killing them. So unless someone has a cunning plan its a stalemate.

 

.......that's a better oxymoron than military intelligence

 

No oxymoron at all. He made a prediction that can be verified yes or no at the end of the year.

 

We shall see. I don't think the Pootster will survive the debacle.

 

....there was a comment on the other thread that was closed (thank god!!) that "we" need to give Putin an "exit strategy"; which is rubbish as he needs to be grabbed by the collar dragged to the door and booted out...but anyway. IMHO if he ends this thing without giving his generals and inner circle (forget the proles they don't matter) a clear victory he'll be killed. His only chase of survival is to carry on; he's the one pushing all the Russian stronk bollocks and so if he wimps out that's it for him...double tap to the head I think is the common term.

 

...indeed....t'was an odd comment on my part....not thinking straight........my bad

 

Russian war weariness:



PREVIEW


3:01
Russian soldier's mum speaks out against war in Ukraine ...

 

Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Russia Offensive Campaign ...
"The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilization in Russia. Russian war correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin stated that Russia has begun a “volunteer mobilization,” where every region must generate at least one volunteer battalion.[1] The term “volunteer mobilization” likely implies that the Kremlin ordered the 85 “federal subjects” (regions, including occupied Sevastopol and Crimea) to recruit and financially incentivize volunteers to form new battalions, rather than referring to literal mobilization relying on conscription or the compulsory activation of all reservists in Russia. Russian outlets reported that regional officials recruit men up to 50 years old (or 60 for separate military specialties) for six-month contracts and offer salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles per month (approximately $3,750 to $6,000).[2] Separate regions offer an immediate enlistment bonus that averages 200,000 rubles (approximately $3,400) issued from the region‘s budget and social benefits for the servicemen and their families.[3] Russian media has already confirmed the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in Kursk, Primorskyi Krai, Republic of Bashkortostan, Chuvashia Republic, Chechnya, Republic of Tatarstan, Moscow City, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Orenburg Oblasts in late June and early July.[4] Tyumen Oblast officials announced the formation of volunteer units (not specifically a battalion) on July 7.[5] . . .
Some Russian reports and documentation suggest that the Kremlin seeks to recruit an estimated 400 soldiers per battalion, who will receive a month of training before deploying to Ukraine.[6] . . . .
Russian forces continue to face desertion and morale problems. The Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that about 60 Russian servicemen deserted due to fear of Ukrainian artillery strikes on Zaporizhia Oblast and noted that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is searching for deserters in occupied settlements in the region.[47] Russian outlet Baza reported that an unknown man threw two Molotov Cocktails at a military recruitment center in Mozhaysk, Moscow Oblast on July 13.[48] . . . "

 

Another step.
IBM ends cloud service partially supporting Russian propaganda network. IBM has ended a cloud service to the Rumble video platform that carried the Russian RT television network, a key outlet for Kremlin propaganda. Through the end of June, the IBM cloud platform was used by Rumble to bring RT’s pro-Moscow war messaging to a wide audience. Questioned by CyberScoop, an IBM spokesperson clarified that its tech support no longer will be available to Rumble for that purpose. CyberScoop has confirmed the change through a review of hosting and routing data for Rumble’s web domain that shows IBM Cloud IP addresses pointing to Rumble’s web domain are no longer listed. CyberScoop

 

Making it tough to go to the movies in Russia.
Ukrainian hacktivists launch service denial attacks against Russian cinemas. CyberWire reports that hacktivists sympathetic to Ukraine have carried out distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against Russian movie theater chains and ticket services. Although unlikely to have a material effect on the ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine-friendly hackers, known as the IT Army, see such disruptions as morale boosters. A cyber expert said that DDoS campaigns add to the unity and feeling of accomplishment among hackers who seek to contribute to the resistance against Russia. CyberWire